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"I don't base my decisions on previous years numbers."

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"I don't base my decisions on previous years numbers."

Postby warrick95 » Sat May 14, 2005 12:27 pm

It's true, it's true. A direct quote from somebody in one of my leagues. Have any of y'all ever heard of something like this? It's great. As the great John Rockefeller said, "Let us prey." I'm sure that I can trade Clint Barmes to him for first round value... ;-D Too bad I did go off on him, though. I don't know if he's still going to deal.


Here's the entire message, if you're curious:
"I voted agains it. Say what you want, that's fine.

I don't base my decisions on previous years numbers. If you look at the numbers now it's not an even trade by any means.

The only way I wouldn't vote against it is if it was a 1 for 1 trade with any of those players.

That's just my opinion and I voted against it again."
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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Sat May 14, 2005 12:40 pm

Ahh, that's why you never flame those guys. You defend them then try to trade with them. :-D
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Postby CPHFighter1 » Sat May 14, 2005 12:43 pm

Interesting this comes up. Some time back I wrote a paper on 'rational expectations' vs 'adaptive expectations'.
Rational expectations uses ALL available information to forecast (applied to fantasy baseball: maybe you saw him play, read an article, etc., AND past stats).
Adapative expectations- forecast is simply based on past behavior (last year's stats).

Maybe this person was making a crude reference to using rational expectations instead of adaptive expectations.

If anyone is interested, check this out:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rational_expectations

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adaptive_expectations
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Postby baseball6791 » Sat May 14, 2005 12:48 pm

yeah i have guys in my league like that too. its either impossible to trade with them or u rip them off beyond belief
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Postby warrick95 » Sat May 14, 2005 12:51 pm

Nono...there's a third expectation that you missed. ONLY using this year's stats. That's basically what he was referring to...the elapsed Yahoo rankings for this year. This was in reference to a trade I just made (Floyd/Lyon for Huffy).

I think this is what the Outside the Boxscore comment meant by "holding the hand of the weakling and then raping him"...or something along those lines.

Well, I proposed him Turnbow, Barmes, Hafner, Varitek, and Brazoban for F. Cordero, Rollins, Teixeira, I. Rodriguez, and K. Wood. Here's hoping that he really wants to spite me and rip me off! :-D
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Postby 4Pack » Sat May 14, 2005 1:04 pm

To a certain extent....I can see going by what a particular player is doing thus far this season. However...you cannot just totally ignore what a players past numbers are either.

Hmmmmm....Roberts would be a great case in point! But...damn..hate to get another 8 page Robert's thread going! LOL
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Postby CPHFighter1 » Sat May 14, 2005 1:05 pm

warrick95 wrote:Nono...there's a third expectation that you missed. ONLY using this year's stats. That's basically what he was referring to...the elapsed Yahoo rankings for this year. This was in reference to a trade I just made (Floyd/Lyon for Huffy).

I think this is what the Outside the Boxscore comment meant by "holding the hand of the weakling and then raping him"...or something along those lines.

Well, I proposed him Turnbow, Barmes, Hafner, Varitek, and Brazoban for F. Cordero, Rollins, Teixeira, I. Rodriguez, and K. Wood. Here's hoping that he really wants to spite me and rip me off! :-D


Oh, sorry I misunderstood your post then. It's actually even more so then for shorter time periods, and he seems to have a strong case of adaptive expectations disease. Adaptive expectations in the most direct sense is expecting todays stats will be almost exactly as they were yesterday, with two days ago have less of an impact, three days even less, and so on...

If he's abiding by this, he should accept your trade. Good luck ;-D
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