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Billy Beane is no genius

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Postby George_Foreman » Thu May 12, 2005 9:19 pm

how on earth is a two-year window anywhere near realistic for evaluating talent from a draft? cripes, man, wait another year or three before trying to make this assessment....

and in fairness, the As (as i understand it) draft for players who can make more immediate impacts, so it would make sense that their guys had a higher propensity to get called up earlier than other teams' draft picks.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Thu May 12, 2005 10:04 pm

George_Foreman wrote:how on earth is a two-year window anywhere near realistic for evaluating talent from a draft? cripes, man, wait another year or three before trying to make this assessment....

and in fairness, the As (as i understand it) draft for players who can make more immediate impacts, so it would make sense that their guys had a higher propensity to get called up earlier than other teams' draft picks.


I agree that a two year window is not enough, but that is what the initial poster looked for.

FWIW 6 of the top 15 picks have already made it to the big leagues, although none were picked by the A's. IOW, the A's so far are matching the top half of the draft, while the rest of the league has fallen far short of that picking in the area where the A's were picking.
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Postby George_Foreman » Thu May 12, 2005 10:24 pm

oh, no, your analysis was spot on. :-) i think i was more questioning how the guy intended to get a reasonable notion of beane's drafting based on that criteria. it's just amuzing that his examples disproves his point, as you clearly showed. ;-D
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Postby Bas » Thu May 12, 2005 11:02 pm

Maybe you guys dont understand what the word impact means in baseball. Of the 3 great Oak draft picks 1 is no longer in Oak, 1 is a SP that has never won a game and the other is a hitter who has more k's than hits and is on the DL. Way to go Beane you really showed the league with those 3 studs.
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Postby looptid » Thu May 12, 2005 11:05 pm

Bas wrote:How many picks did they get? I probably wouldnt try comparing Oak and Min front office if I was gonna argue how good Beane is. If you hadnt noticed Min is still putting up great teams. Where is Oak in the standings this year?


I live in Minnesota. I'm well aware of how the Twins have done. They've also done what they've done in what has been the worst division in baseball for the past three seasons. And the Athletics have been to the playoffs four of the last five seasons, where the Twins have been three of the last three. The Athletics have won more games than the Twins over the past five seasons in the tougher division. Minnesota wouldn't have made the postseason once in the last three seasons were they playing in the West.

The Twins had five first round picks this past draft, we'll see how many pan out. It'd be great if all five did, but the point is that this isn't basketball or football where top draft picks are as crucial for success, or turn into top players as frequently.

Let's look at the infamous Moneyball Draft of 2002, and just look at how many players are in the majors:

1. Bryan Bullington P Pittsburgh Pirates
2. B.J. Upton SS Tampa Bay Devil Rays
3. Christopher Gruler P Cincinnati
4. Adam Loewen P Baltimore Orioles
5. Clint Everts P Montreal Expos
6. Zack Greinke P Kansas City Royals
7. Prince Fielder 1B Milwaukee Brewers
8. Scott Moore SS Detroit Tigers
9. Jeff Francis P Colorado Rockies
10. Drew Meyer SS Texas Rangers
11. Jeremy Hermida OF Florida Marlins
12. Joe Saunders P Anaheim Angels
13. Khalil Greene SS San Diego Padres
14. Russ Adams SS Toronto Blue Jays
15. Scott Kazmir P New York Mets
16. Nick Swisher OF Oakland Athletics
17. Cole Hamels P Philadelphia Phillies
18. Roger Ring P Chicago White Sox
19. James Loney 1B Los Angeles Dodgers
20. Denard Span OF Minnesota Twins
21. Bobby Brownlie Chicago Cubs
22. Jeremy Guthrie P Cleveland Indians
23. Jeff Francoeur OF Atlanta Braves
24. Joe Blanton P Oakland Athletics
25. Matthew Cain P San Francisco Giants
26. John McCurdy IF Oakland Athletics
27. Sergio Santos SS Arizona Diamondbacks
28. John Mayberry H Seattle Mariners
29. Derick Grigsby P Houston Astros
30. Ben Fritz P Oakland Athletics
31. Greg Miller P Los Angeles Dodgers
32. Luke Hagerty P Chicago Cubs
33. Matt Whitney 3B Cleveland Indians
34. Dan Meyer P Atlanta Braves
35. Jeremy Brown C Oakland Athletics
36. Chadd Blasko NA Chicago Cubs
37. Stephen Obenchain P Oakland Athletics
38. Matthew Clanton P Chicago Cubs
39. Mark Teahen 3B Oakland Athletics
40. Mark Schramek P Cincinnati Reds
41. Micah Schilling 2B Cleveland Indians

That's 3 of 9. I know a lot of the players listed were younger, and weren't college players like Teahen, Blanton, and Swisher, but their 33% ain't bad. Big deal, Jeremy Brown didn't pan out. The nice thing was that they signed him for much less than a typical first round pick and heged their bets.
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Postby looptid » Thu May 12, 2005 11:10 pm

Bas, your criticizm isn't based on any kind of impartial observation. Blanton has a 3.22 ERA right now.
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Postby George_Foreman » Thu May 12, 2005 11:45 pm

bas-

who said anything about these players being "great", or even great right now, in their rookie year, three years after being drafed? you're the one who brought up the 2002 draft as a rubric for how people draft.

you bring up the word "impact" and how we don't seem to understand what it means, but then you don't offer a definition yourself. frankly, i think playing a major-league game (or being involved in a major trade) would be about the best way to judge "impact", since none of these guys have been around more than a year or two!! in reality, no one from that draft has had any major impact on MLB. i mean, you could argue greinke or khalil greene since they were around last year, or kazmir, because he was involved in the trade that brought victor zambrano to the mets to solidify their rotaiton down the stretch last year (or something like that, anyways :-° ), but those guys were taken before oakland even had a pick, and has their contribution really been that vital? none of the teams that drafted those guys made the playoffs last year, and greinke and kazmir probably came up earlier than they would have on a perenial playoff team like the As.

so which players drafted after beane's picks would you have had him take? the only ones on that list that look like players who are on the cusp these days (besides the ones who are already in the majors) are the two atlanta picks (jeff francoer and dan meyer, the latter of which is incidently now with oakland) and matt cain. and i'd certainliy be willing to put up blanton's winless (wins, with the way their offense has been playing thus far? good luck) ERA against anything Cain will do this year and swisher is looking at least as good as francoeur, who is probably only potentially in the mix this year because of atlanta's corner OF woes.

so, having the luxory of 3 years' minor league performance, who should bean have taken instead of the players he drafted? i'm honestly curious who you think he should have taken instead.
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Postby Bas » Thu May 12, 2005 11:46 pm

Im not saying Blanton wont become a good player but a SP who has never won a game is not an impact player yet period. Oakland lived off their second half comebacks for years now. Well guess what Hudson and Mulder arent there to lead the charge anymore. Sorry but i cant respect any GM who just lets his 2 best pitchers get away in their primes.
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Postby George_Foreman » Thu May 12, 2005 11:49 pm

and i can't respect anyone who makes blanket statements without context or caveat. (and i mean ANYONE at ALL!! ;-7 )
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Postby beltrans_boy » Thu May 12, 2005 11:54 pm

Bas wrote:Im not saying Blanton wont become a good player but a SP who has never won a game is not an impact player yet period. Oakland lived off their second half comebacks for years now. Well guess what Hudson and Mulder arent there to lead the charge anymore. Sorry but i cant respect any GM who just lets his 2 best pitchers get away in their primes.


Did you SEE Mulder and Hudson's 2nd half numbers last year?
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