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Anybody still want to sell high on Dontrelle Willis...?

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Postby hookem2003 » Mon May 09, 2005 1:58 pm

I traded him for Francisco Cordero. Not a bad move cause I needed rp help, but not one I would do again.
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Postby SChippie » Mon May 09, 2005 2:45 pm

I'm in a point league and traded him for jeter. Sounds crazy but I lost nomar, and a hitter is far more valuable than a pitcher. Now I can rotate Wade Miller, Kris Benson, or John Patterson depending on weekly matchups into Willis' slot.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Mon May 09, 2005 2:53 pm

George_Foreman wrote:i don't expect a collapse, but anyone who thinks his ERA will be under two at the end of the year is dreaming. heck, i think under 3 is a stretch, which means i think his numbers will take quite a hit in the coming months. if you can get a real top-teir pitcher for him (a la burnett, beckett, prior, heck i'd even take vazquez for him 8-o ) you should do it, but by no means throw him by the wayside. i could certainly see him posting 12 wins the rest of the way, which would put him at 18 on the season. i'm just saying, you've already seen his best month, so don't expect a santana-like year.


this is my feelings as well. He has a problem of getting hit around when he starts facing teams for the 2nd/3rd time in a season. He also has month long stretches of being unhittable in each of his first 2 bigleague years, so this hot start isnt unprecedented for him. He's going to streak, and his price now will never be higher. I expect him to be very good this yr, better than his first two yrs - but Id still trade him high and watch his 1.07 ERA and .86 WHIP turn into 3.20 ERA and 1.20 WHIP when all is said and done this yr.
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Postby Amazinz » Mon May 09, 2005 3:13 pm

I agree with everyone who thinks that ERA is going to rise up to 3+. Willis has pitched well but in addition he's been extremely fortunate. So I still say yes to sell high. I don't think Willis is going to fall apart but I also doubt his value will be any greater than it is right now. If you can take advantage of that than you should.

BTW kcs261, who would trade Willis away for 2nd-rate junk? :-) Selling high doesn't mean bailing on a guy or playing hot potato. But if you can turn Willis into a legitimate stud pitcher (which Willis is not) why not? If your only option is 2nd rate junk then hold onto him.
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Postby Melo255 » Mon May 09, 2005 3:38 pm

George_Foreman wrote:i don't expect a collapse, but anyone who thinks his ERA will be under two at the end of the year is dreaming. heck, i think under 3 is a stretch, which means i think his numbers will take quite a hit in the coming months. if you can get a real top-teir pitcher for him (a la burnett, beckett, prior, heck i'd even take vazquez for him 8-o ) you should do it, but by no means throw him by the wayside. i could certainly see him posting 12 wins the rest of the way, which would put him at 18 on the season. i'm just saying, you've already seen his best month, so don't expect a santana-like year.


;-D
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Postby Simulacrum » Mon May 09, 2005 3:56 pm

Slow Pitch wrote:
I will never play fantasy baseball again if D-Train gets 30 W's. No way, no how.



I wasn't really serious about the 30 wins. His chances of pulling off such a feat is about 1: 10,000 in my opinion. ;-)
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Postby Jugemc » Mon May 09, 2005 4:42 pm

I'm a marlin fan and i've been watchin him since his rookie season. One thing that everyones probably noticed, he starts hot, and over the season it seems he gets tired which increases his wildness. its possible that he was just a bit to young, and he got alot stronger giving him a better chance to get through the season. Another thing last year something my dads friend who was an excellent college pitcher pointed out was the inconsistency of Dontrelles leg kick. No 2 pitches were hte same, his right foot was landing in different spots every time. Since then, dontrelle has toned down his kick quite a bit making it more consistent. i dont think theres any way dontrelle has a bad season, should you sell high now? i'd say go for it if you can get a stud. If its a keeper league (dont really know much about them), dontrelle could be the Johann santana in a year or 2. i think dontrelle has the potential to be as good as any pitcher in the league. This year i'd say he'll put up high 2s low 3 ERA. about a 1 WHIP, and i think he could surprise people on Wins because of the Marlins line up.
that is all
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Postby Rookies » Mon May 09, 2005 6:47 pm

The Marlin's new pitching coach Mark Wiley worked a lot with Willis and his unusual delivery, focusing a lot on where he plants his foot.

Personally, I'm a little leery about pitchers with unusual mechanics but it isn't necessarily a guarantee for disaster. Mussina has had great success and his mechanics are unusual.

I traded Willis for Blalock after Willis's third good start and haven't regretted it yet. If he's still pitching like this around the All Star Break then I'll be sold on the guy.
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Postby Yoda » Mon May 09, 2005 6:52 pm

His brief career splits show that you should sell high. He tends to be terrible in the second half.
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Postby kcs261 » Mon May 09, 2005 8:15 pm

[quote="Yoda"]His brief career splits[quote]

BRIEF is the key word there. You don't go drawing long-term conclusions about a guy who is only 23 -- based on his first two-years in the league.
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