What to do with Pat Burrell - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

What to do with Pat Burrell

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Postby baseballnewb » Mon May 09, 2005 9:47 am

Last week he hit 2 HR and drove in 5 runs. Not like he's been useless. The week before he missed time with a groin injury and the 2 weeks before that he put up solid numbers.
baseballnewb
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 629
Joined: 8 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby RAmst23 » Mon May 09, 2005 11:34 am

I don't know why fantasy players knock Burrell for being streaky. When you know a player is streaky, just bench him during his cold streaks and start him during his hot ones. I've been resting Pat the Bat on the bench for a little bit.. I think it's time to let him start playing again ;-D

BTW there's a really long thread somewhere in here that talks about him in length, might wanna scout that out.
...Boston papers now and then suffer a sharp flurry of arithmetic on this score; indeed, for Williams to have distributed all his hits so they did nobody else any good would constitute a feat of placement unparalleled in the annals of selfishness. -Updike
RAmst23
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1986
(Past Year: 3)
Joined: 6 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Sitting on the steps of Busch Stadium

Postby Melo255 » Mon May 09, 2005 3:47 pm

slomo007 wrote:No, he's not for real, and you should have sold high. But now that you've missed your chance...I would bench him until he hits another mini-hot streak (hopefully for you, he will) and then attempt to trade him.

He's comparable to Burnitz IMO, but in a better lineup. Expect a lot of power, with a low average.


Exactly. The first two weeks so overhyped Burrell that people are refusing to see him for what he is even now that he has fallen back to earth like most of us said he would. He's a .250 35 home run hitter. I'd rather have Mike Cameron and his .220 30 hr 20sb
Image
Melo255
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1411
Joined: 5 Mar 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: PAO Thira 13

Postby d18Mike » Mon May 09, 2005 3:48 pm

Uggggggh!

There is no such thing as a streaky player.

This has been studied to death by armies of mathaticians who should have better things to do.

Periods of hot and cold hitting are just a reflection of the natural variability observed in coin tossing. A good hitter has a better chance of a hitting streak just because he will get more hits and the chances of clustering are higher.

So slotting someone in who is "hot" is just as likely to backfire as it is to pay off. Sure all of us have occassional anecdotal experiences that seem to defy this, but it's a fact.

(Now if I could only convince myself of this as it applies to Eric Chavez . ;-)
d18Mike
Major League Manager
Major League Manager


Posts: 1696
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Mon May 09, 2005 3:52 pm

d18Mike wrote:So slotting someone in who is "hot" is just as likely to backfire as it is to pay off. Sure all of us have occassional anecdotal experiences that seem to defy this, but it's a fact.


great point - completely agree.

As for Burrell, I think he will have a really nice yr due to his change in approach to the plate, therefore, I would more than likely keep him if I had him or trade for him if I can get him cheap enough.
Image
Cornbread Maxwell
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertPick 3 ChampionSweet 16 Survivor
Posts: 5694
Joined: 7 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Football

Postby slomo007 » Mon May 09, 2005 3:55 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
d18Mike wrote:So slotting someone in who is "hot" is just as likely to backfire as it is to pay off. Sure all of us have occassional anecdotal experiences that seem to defy this, but it's a fact.


great point - completely agree.

As for Burrell, I think he will have a really nice yr due to his change in approach to the plate, therefore, I would more than likely keep him if I had him or trade for him if I can get him cheap enough.


The past month hasn't convinced you otherwise yet? ;-7
slomo007
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicEagle Eye
Posts: 11960
Joined: 31 May 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby acsguitar » Mon May 09, 2005 4:35 pm

Yea he hit 37 bombs 2 years ago..not bad for a left fielder...
I'm too lazy to make a sig at the moment
acsguitar
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Graphics Expert
Posts: 26722
Joined: 7 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Back in General Talk WOOO!!!

Postby Cooner » Mon May 09, 2005 5:07 pm

d18Mike wrote:Uggggggh!

There is no such thing as a streaky player.

This has been studied to death by armies of mathaticians who should have better things to do.

Periods of hot and cold hitting are just a reflection of the natural variability observed in coin tossing. A good hitter has a better chance of a hitting streak just because he will get more hits and the chances of clustering are higher.

So slotting someone in who is "hot" is just as likely to backfire as it is to pay off. Sure all of us have occassional anecdotal experiences that seem to defy this, but it's a fact.

(Now if I could only convince myself of this as it applies to Eric Chavez . ;-)


This simply isn't true. Yes, random things tend to have many more "streaks" than people expect from something that is truely random. But baseball players hitting well is NOT random. It could only be random if they were doing the exact same thing at every at-bat, but they're not. When a player gets hot, he's more relaxed, his swing is automatic and unforced- a product of muscle memory, and his reaction times are quick. When he's in a slump, his swing is forced, he's thinking too hard and not letting it happen, and his mental attitude makes it harder for him to get a hit. To say that a baseball player's evolution through the season is an independent random variable is a ridiculous hypothesis.

edit: I bailed on Burrel a week and a half into the season. It would have been perfect timing, except I got Magglio Ordonez for him, two days before the "hernia"
Cooner
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1028
Joined: 2 May 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: my home is in NYC, my heart is in PNC Park

Postby d18Mike » Mon May 09, 2005 5:41 pm

You might very well be right. Good luck arguing against the numbers on this one! ;-)
d18Mike
Major League Manager
Major League Manager


Posts: 1696
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby 4Pack » Mon May 09, 2005 6:11 pm

So many differing opinions on Burrell. What it comes down to is...if you have him on your team (as I do on a few) you have confidence that he will have a good season. If he is not on your team or you don't like him (or have been burnt by him in the past) ...then the guy could be hitting .350 with 30 HR's and 90 RBI's going into August...and you managers would still not believe he is going to have a good season.
4Pack
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 828
Joined: 14 Jun 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Wisconsin

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Monday, Sep. 1
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

Philadelphia at Atlanta
(1:10 pm)
NY Mets at Miami
(1:10 pm)
indoors
Boston at Tampa Bay
(1:10 pm)
indoors
Minnesota at Baltimore
(1:35 pm)
Pittsburgh at St. Louis
(2:15 pm)
Milwaukee at Chi Cubs
(2:20 pm)
Seattle at Oakland
(4:05 pm)
Detroit at Cleveland
(4:05 pm)
San Francisco at Colorado
(4:10 pm)
Arizona at San Diego
(4:10 pm)
Texas at Kansas City
(8:10 pm)
Washington at LA Dodgers
(8:10 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact