Yes, I completely agree that not every single ace performs like an ace year after year. However, just because a couple guys falls off means one shouldn't draft pitchers early on? Roger Clemens, Rich Harden, Jake Peavy, Josh Beckett, Tim Hudson, AJ Burnett, Johan Santana are all doing fine early on.
Pitchers do get injured and not all of them are consistent, but does anyone have a study stating this? Evidence of 3 guys not performing well doesn't really back-up the argument. Guys like Jim Thome, Eric Chavez, Mike Lowell, Hideki Matsui have all not hit well this year, but no one says don't take top hitters.
The only study I saw on this was posted here on the cafe somewhere, and it concluded that out of the top 50 hitters and 50 pitchers each year, both groups were fairly equal in consistency. Anyone remember where this post is??
(Don't mean to attack anyone at all in this post, just trying to start a discussion on this because I really would like to know more about this paticular subject.)
...Boston papers now and then suffer a sharp flurry of arithmetic on this score; indeed, for Williams to have distributed all his hits so they did nobody else any good would constitute a feat of placement unparalleled in the annals of selfishness. -Updike