Pitching failures

[RAmst23]

Many in the cafe often say that taking a pitcher in the first couple rounds is to great a hazard. Several won't even do it. My question right now is, are there any suprise failures on the pitching front for anyone? I'm actually wanting to know everyone's opinion on this question.

To clarify a little bit, I mean has anyone gone down with an injury or just completely not performed to your expectations that you are suprised about? Such as is anyone suprised that Kerry Wood is currently on the DL? To me it seems like that while yes pitchers tend to be a random lot, with information and research you can see who's likely to go down with an injury or underperform. Guys like Schilling not performing right now shouldn't be a great suprise, since he was obviously a risk coming into the season.

While there are many pitchers each season that exceed expectations, I'm wondering who the cafe thinks is doing the opposite.

For me, these are the guys I expected to perform well and who I thought posted small risk: Jason Schmidt, Ben Sheets, Roy Oswalt.

[RynMan]

Yeah, because guys like the ones you mentioned: Oswalt, Schmidt, Sheets have been a little shaky is why I dont think I would take a pitcher in the first round. Hitters hit, but pitchers are really more at risk of an injury than hitters are. Oliver Perez really has surprised me with how badly he has been.

[baseballboy]

tell this to all who got Schilling early

[George_Foreman]

people drafted RJ in the top rounds in 2003, and that blew up. people drafted prior and halladay in the first round in 2004, and that blew up. the top pitcher one year is just not often the top pitcher the next year; they're harder to predict, especially at the top level.

that said, getting that top stud at the top of your rotation can be the difference between winning a league and finishing in 5th.

[baseballnewb]

Around 30-40% of the top 20 pitchers each year get hurt or just don't perform. Hitters aren't anywhere near as risky. That is why you don't take a pitcher in the first few rounds. Relying way too much on luck.

[RAmst23]

Yes, I completely agree that not every single ace performs like an ace year after year. However, just because a couple guys falls off means one shouldn't draft pitchers early on? Roger Clemens, Rich Harden, Jake Peavy, Josh Beckett, Tim Hudson, AJ Burnett, Johan Santana are all doing fine early on.

Pitchers do get injured and not all of them are consistent, but does anyone have a study stating this? Evidence of 3 guys not performing well doesn't really back-up the argument. Guys like Jim Thome, Eric Chavez, Mike Lowell, Hideki Matsui have all not hit well this year, but no one says don't take top hitters.

The only study I saw on this was posted here on the cafe somewhere, and it concluded that out of the top 50 hitters and 50 pitchers each year, both groups were fairly equal in consistency. Anyone remember where this post is??

(Don't mean to attack anyone at all in this post, just trying to start a discussion on this because I really would like to know more about this paticular subject.)