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OLIVER PEREZ

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Postby Yoda » Sat May 07, 2005 9:07 am

I just find it funny how people love to post "I told you so" type crap.

He is most likely hurt. He has NO command which is scary. As most people noted, his trade value is virtually nothing and the only thing you can hope for is that he turns it around. I wouldn't drop him just yet but I would definitely bench him until he gets a few good starts.
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Postby EK711 » Mon May 09, 2005 11:38 pm

This was posted just a little bit ago on rotoworld.....

rotoworld.com wrote:Oliver Perez might be skipped next time through if he doesn't pitch well on Wednesday.
''With his control the way it is right now, I wonder sometimes if he is 100 percent,'' manager Lloyd McClendon said. ''I'll sit down and talk to him about it. He's too important not to make certain there's nothing going on. Do I have concerns? Yeah, I have concerns. Everyone has concerns. He's not throwing the way he does.'' McClendon is just now thinking about sitting down with him and asking him how's he feeling? Wow.


When it becomes more than just speculation from fantasy owners that's bad. :-o
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Postby Half Massed » Tue May 10, 2005 1:18 am

i see him as a buy low candidate, but only really low. i traded garland for him after garland's last start and think (hope) i'll come out on top by the end of the year. I think it'll click for him eventually. he went a very different path in the offseason and beginning of this year than usual and it may be getting to him, physically and mentally. i think once he puts out 2 decent starts in a row he'll gain more confidence and take off from there. of course this is if he can get 2 decent starts in a row :-o if you can acquire him for very little i recommend doing so.
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Postby Irish » Tue May 10, 2005 9:27 am

Honestly, I hope he is hurt. Then he can take some time off and come back better.

If he isn't hurt then I think we have more to worry about.

Mark Wohlers........... :-o
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Postby kev921 » Tue May 10, 2005 9:47 am

[quote="BobbyRoberto"]When Perez started off so poorly, I remembered that last year Johan Santana had an ERA over 5.00 into June. I had Santana last year and stuck with him. He started the year 1-4, 5.61 ERA, 1.49 WHIP in the first two months of the season. Then he took off and was flat-out AMAZING for the rest of the year.


This comment on Santana is exactly why I have Ollie on my bench. I can't bear to think about dropping him only to have him turn it around.
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Re: OLIVER PEREZ

Postby Jobu » Tue May 10, 2005 10:01 am

Jwilliams5521 wrote:is it time to push the panic button on this guy? hes had only 1 good start this whole year and his k numbers are down. wonder if that injury is still lingering or do we have a case of the sophomore slump on our hands


Perez is overrated. If his performance thus far and history in the MLB prior to last year hasn't convinced you, see the following.

Pirates’ starter Oliver Perez had a breakout season last year at 22-years old. He went 12-10 with the Bucs and posted a 2.99 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP in 196 IP. His K/BB rose to 2.95 which was significantly better than his current career K/BB of 2.19 and his OBA was a paltry .207. His opponents batting line last season was .207/.295/.359.

That’s pretty heady stuff.

This year Oliver is 1-3 with a 7.11 ERA over 31.2 IP and 6 starts. He gave up 19 runs in 19 IP over his first four starts and then had a flashback to 2004 against the Astros on April 25th when he tossed 7.2 shutout innings allowing just 4 hits and two walks while striking out 9. He couldn’t continue that success into Sunday’s start however as the Giants got to him for 6 runs, all earned, in 5 IP, on 7 hits, 5 walks and just one strikeout. One.

Ok, command and dominance are first two places you go with pitchers. Oliver posted a 1.95 K/BB in 2002, 1.83 in 2003, 2.95 last year and so far this year he’s posted a 1.22 K/BB.

His K/9 has taken a similar path. He struck out 9.40 in 2002, 10.02 in 2003, 10.97 last year and so far his K rate has taken a dip to 7.96.

Oliver’s control has suffered as well. In 2002 he walked 4.7/ 9IP. In 2003 it was a scary 5.4/9. Last year he got his walks down to 3.6/9, but this season he’s back up to … you may want to sit down … 6.0/9.

How about one of my favorites, GB/FB ratio? Well, Oliver isn’t much a ground ball pitcher anyway, but the path of his GB/FB split is a little different. He posted an 0.80 GB/FB in 2002, 0.93 in 2003, and in his outstanding 2004, his GB/FB dipped to 0.74. This year that rate has dropped further to a scary 0.44.

Surprisingly his HR rate has fluctuated independently of that GB/FB rate. In 2002 he served at the pleasure of the gopher to the tune of 1.29/ 9IP. In 2003 his HR rate jumped to 1.56. In his breakout year that rate took a dip to a reasonable 1.01/9. This year he’s serving again, this time at a rate of 2.2/9.

Anything adding up yet? Not for me either.

Your first tendency in a case like this is to think Oliver overachieved in 2004 and if he reverted more closely to his pre-2004 indicators, you’d have a pretty good case. Unfortunately, while you might reasonably expect a rebound from his 2004 high, he’s done more than that, he’s regressed.

There might be some answers in our Player Production Charts. Two features of our PPCs, for pitchers, are Stranded Percentage and BHIP% (which we talked about last week). Stranded percentage indicates the percentage of runners that reach base against a pitcher who don’t score. Like Ball Hit in Play % (BHIP% - the percentage of ball hit in play that fall for hits), Stranded percentage is one of those stats that seems to be pretty level among all starters. Some pitchers demonstrate a repeatable ability to post elevated Strand Percentage, but for the most part, pitchers will fall in a very narrow range between .70, and .74.

Perez’s Stranded Percentage history is 0.79 in 2002, 0.70 in 2003, 0.79 in 2004 and 0.68 this season.

His BHIP% history reads as follows: .250 in 2002, .316 in 2003, .266 in .2004 and .315 so far this year.

So what have we got?

In 2004 Oliver conjured up the perfect storm. He was dominant (10.9K/9) and that kept hitters from putting the ball in play. When they did put the ball in play he has some good luck going too (his .266 BHIP% was .022 lower than the MLB average). That led to a .207 OBA and .295 OOBP which combined with some good fortune in his strand rate (0.79, 0.08 better than average) to mean that fewer guys were getting on, and fewer of those guys were getting home.

Don’t let guys put the ball in play, get lucky when they do and allow fewer hits, and have the good fortune to keep more of those guys from scoring. That’ll work every time.

This year all of that is working against him. He’s walking more hitters, allowing more balls in play. The balls he’s allowing in play are dropping at a rate that’s .049 worse than last year and those baserunners are scoring at a rate that’s 0.11 higher than last year. Add in the rise in his HR rate and you start to understand why his numbers look the way they do.

Here’s what we can look for. First forget 2004 for now. That’s an aberration until he proves otherwise. Still we can look for his command to rebound upward a bit as he approaches his pre-2004 levels. That’s a reasonable expectation. We can also look for him to start to get a little luckier in terms of BHIP% and Strand Percentage. That’s reasonable too.

The things that concern me most are:

1) The drop in his K rate. It’s early, but his rate is low enough for me to have suspicions about his health and/or mechanics. I’m basing that speculation solely on that K rate, but right now, it’s enough off his graph to make me wonder.

2) The homers. He’s susceptible to the long ball. He has a documented history of this issue, and the elevation of this rate begs the same mechanics/health concerns. In fact that’s also backed up by …

3) His GB/FB ratio. Again, his split this year is worse than even his history would indicate. The reversion is enough to make me wonder if he’s toying with his motion or if there’s something else going on. In any event, he throws too many flyballs to be successful if he can’t strikeout 10+/9IP. Even then, with the HRs he allows, it’s an open question whether he can be effective unless he gets very fortunate in his BHIP% and his strand rate as he did in 2004. And there’s nothing in his history that even hints he can improve this aspect of his game significantly.

The bottom line, as it almost always is, is that he’s not as good as he was in 2004 and Oliver isn’t as bad as he is right now. He’s going to get better, but a return to 2004 form this season would surprise me … a lot. Chances are that he ends up some where between 4.00 and 4.50 in ERA and with the Bucs he may repeat his 12 wins, but he’ll likely lose double figures as well.

He’s only 22 so Oliver is still a work in progress. If he can return to a K rate of 10+/9 he’ll be an effective pitcher. If he can keep the ball in the park he’ll be even better. But 2004 was the result of a lot of things going well for him at the right time.

Long term he really needs to start getting the ball down in the zone and he needs to throw more GBs. That may happen but it won’t for a while. In the short term keep an eye on his K rate. If it stays sub-9.0/9 he’s going to have a long summer.
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Postby RC » Tue May 10, 2005 10:21 am

BobbyRoberto wrote:When Perez started off so poorly, I remembered that last year Johan Santana had an ERA over 5.00 into June. I had Santana last year and stuck with him. He started the year 1-4, 5.61 ERA, 1.49 WHIP in the first two months of the season. Then he took off and was flat-out AMAZING for the rest of the year.

Right now, Perez is 1-3, 7.57 ERA, 1.88 WHIP. Knowing what Santana did, you might think Perez could do the same. But there are big differences.

In '04, even with his bad ERA and WHIP, Santana had a 2.8 K/BB ratio, an 8.0 K/9 and a 2.8 BB/9. His peripherals were solid.

In '05, Perez' peripherals are bad: 1.2 K/BB (bad), 7.3 K/9 (not bad), and 6.3 BB/9 (very, very bad).

I'd drop him like a hot potato. He has a long way to go to turn this around and even if he does, the Pirates don't score any runs anyway, so he won't win many. I'd guess there are better pitchers available on your waiver wire.


I would agree, except for there were a lot of positives in many of Santana's starts early last year.

So far, I see nothing Positive from Ollie.

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Re: OLIVER PEREZ

Postby bluefire7 » Tue May 10, 2005 10:26 am

Jobu wrote:
Jwilliams5521 wrote:is it time to push the panic button on this guy? hes had only 1 good start this whole year and his k numbers are down. wonder if that injury is still lingering or do we have a case of the sophomore slump on our hands


Perez is overrated. If his performance thus far and history in the MLB prior to last year hasn't convinced you, see the following.

Pirates’ starter Oliver Perez had a breakout season last year at 22-years old. He went 12-10 with the Bucs and posted a 2.99 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP in 196 IP. His K/BB rose to 2.95 which was significantly better than his current career K/BB of 2.19 and his OBA was a paltry .207. His opponents batting line last season was .207/.295/.359.

That’s pretty heady stuff.

This year Oliver is 1-3 with a 7.11 ERA over 31.2 IP and 6 starts. He gave up 19 runs in 19 IP over his first four starts and then had a flashback to 2004 against the Astros on April 25th when he tossed 7.2 shutout innings allowing just 4 hits and two walks while striking out 9. He couldn’t continue that success into Sunday’s start however as the Giants got to him for 6 runs, all earned, in 5 IP, on 7 hits, 5 walks and just one strikeout. One.

Ok, command and dominance are first two places you go with pitchers. Oliver posted a 1.95 K/BB in 2002, 1.83 in 2003, 2.95 last year and so far this year he’s posted a 1.22 K/BB.

His K/9 has taken a similar path. He struck out 9.40 in 2002, 10.02 in 2003, 10.97 last year and so far his K rate has taken a dip to 7.96.

Oliver’s control has suffered as well. In 2002 he walked 4.7/ 9IP. In 2003 it was a scary 5.4/9. Last year he got his walks down to 3.6/9, but this season he’s back up to … you may want to sit down … 6.0/9.

How about one of my favorites, GB/FB ratio? Well, Oliver isn’t much a ground ball pitcher anyway, but the path of his GB/FB split is a little different. He posted an 0.80 GB/FB in 2002, 0.93 in 2003, and in his outstanding 2004, his GB/FB dipped to 0.74. This year that rate has dropped further to a scary 0.44.

Surprisingly his HR rate has fluctuated independently of that GB/FB rate. In 2002 he served at the pleasure of the gopher to the tune of 1.29/ 9IP. In 2003 his HR rate jumped to 1.56. In his breakout year that rate took a dip to a reasonable 1.01/9. This year he’s serving again, this time at a rate of 2.2/9.

Anything adding up yet? Not for me either.

Your first tendency in a case like this is to think Oliver overachieved in 2004 and if he reverted more closely to his pre-2004 indicators, you’d have a pretty good case. Unfortunately, while you might reasonably expect a rebound from his 2004 high, he’s done more than that, he’s regressed.

There might be some answers in our Player Production Charts. Two features of our PPCs, for pitchers, are Stranded Percentage and BHIP% (which we talked about last week). Stranded percentage indicates the percentage of runners that reach base against a pitcher who don’t score. Like Ball Hit in Play % (BHIP% - the percentage of ball hit in play that fall for hits), Stranded percentage is one of those stats that seems to be pretty level among all starters. Some pitchers demonstrate a repeatable ability to post elevated Strand Percentage, but for the most part, pitchers will fall in a very narrow range between .70, and .74.

Perez’s Stranded Percentage history is 0.79 in 2002, 0.70 in 2003, 0.79 in 2004 and 0.68 this season.

His BHIP% history reads as follows: .250 in 2002, .316 in 2003, .266 in .2004 and .315 so far this year.

So what have we got?

In 2004 Oliver conjured up the perfect storm. He was dominant (10.9K/9) and that kept hitters from putting the ball in play. When they did put the ball in play he has some good luck going too (his .266 BHIP% was .022 lower than the MLB average). That led to a .207 OBA and .295 OOBP which combined with some good fortune in his strand rate (0.79, 0.08 better than average) to mean that fewer guys were getting on, and fewer of those guys were getting home.

Don’t let guys put the ball in play, get lucky when they do and allow fewer hits, and have the good fortune to keep more of those guys from scoring. That’ll work every time.

This year all of that is working against him. He’s walking more hitters, allowing more balls in play. The balls he’s allowing in play are dropping at a rate that’s .049 worse than last year and those baserunners are scoring at a rate that’s 0.11 higher than last year. Add in the rise in his HR rate and you start to understand why his numbers look the way they do.

Here’s what we can look for. First forget 2004 for now. That’s an aberration until he proves otherwise. Still we can look for his command to rebound upward a bit as he approaches his pre-2004 levels. That’s a reasonable expectation. We can also look for him to start to get a little luckier in terms of BHIP% and Strand Percentage. That’s reasonable too.

The things that concern me most are:

1) The drop in his K rate. It’s early, but his rate is low enough for me to have suspicions about his health and/or mechanics. I’m basing that speculation solely on that K rate, but right now, it’s enough off his graph to make me wonder.

2) The homers. He’s susceptible to the long ball. He has a documented history of this issue, and the elevation of this rate begs the same mechanics/health concerns. In fact that’s also backed up by …

3) His GB/FB ratio. Again, his split this year is worse than even his history would indicate. The reversion is enough to make me wonder if he’s toying with his motion or if there’s something else going on. In any event, he throws too many flyballs to be successful if he can’t strikeout 10+/9IP. Even then, with the HRs he allows, it’s an open question whether he can be effective unless he gets very fortunate in his BHIP% and his strand rate as he did in 2004. And there’s nothing in his history that even hints he can improve this aspect of his game significantly.

The bottom line, as it almost always is, is that he’s not as good as he was in 2004 and Oliver isn’t as bad as he is right now. He’s going to get better, but a return to 2004 form this season would surprise me … a lot. Chances are that he ends up some where between 4.00 and 4.50 in ERA and with the Bucs he may repeat his 12 wins, but he’ll likely lose double figures as well.

He’s only 22 so Oliver is still a work in progress. If he can return to a K rate of 10+/9 he’ll be an effective pitcher. If he can keep the ball in the park he’ll be even better. But 2004 was the result of a lot of things going well for him at the right time.

Long term he really needs to start getting the ball down in the zone and he needs to throw more GBs. That may happen but it won’t for a while. In the short term keep an eye on his K rate. If it stays sub-9.0/9 he’s going to have a long summer.


wow, nice ;-D
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Re: OLIVER PEREZ

Postby Simulacrum » Tue May 10, 2005 12:27 pm

Jobu wrote:
Jwilliams5521 wrote:is it time to push the panic button on this guy? hes had only 1 good start this whole year and his k numbers are down. wonder if that injury is still lingering or do we have a case of the sophomore slump on our hands


Perez is overrated. If his performance thus far and history in the MLB prior to last year hasn't convinced you, see the following.

Pirates’ starter Oliver Perez had a breakout season last year at 22-years old. He went 12-10 with the Bucs and posted a 2.99 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP in 196 IP. His K/BB rose to 2.95 which was significantly better than his current career K/BB of 2.19 and his OBA was a paltry .207. His opponents batting line last season was .207/.295/.359.

That’s pretty heady stuff.

This year Oliver is 1-3 with a 7.11 ERA over 31.2 IP and 6 starts. He gave up 19 runs in 19 IP over his first four starts and then had a flashback to 2004 against the Astros on April 25th when he tossed 7.2 shutout innings allowing just 4 hits and two walks while striking out 9. He couldn’t continue that success into Sunday’s start however as the Giants got to him for 6 runs, all earned, in 5 IP, on 7 hits, 5 walks and just one strikeout. One.

Ok, command and dominance are first two places you go with pitchers. Oliver posted a 1.95 K/BB in 2002, 1.83 in 2003, 2.95 last year and so far this year he’s posted a 1.22 K/BB.

His K/9 has taken a similar path. He struck out 9.40 in 2002, 10.02 in 2003, 10.97 last year and so far his K rate has taken a dip to 7.96.

Oliver’s control has suffered as well. In 2002 he walked 4.7/ 9IP. In 2003 it was a scary 5.4/9. Last year he got his walks down to 3.6/9, but this season he’s back up to … you may want to sit down … 6.0/9.

How about one of my favorites, GB/FB ratio? Well, Oliver isn’t much a ground ball pitcher anyway, but the path of his GB/FB split is a little different. He posted an 0.80 GB/FB in 2002, 0.93 in 2003, and in his outstanding 2004, his GB/FB dipped to 0.74. This year that rate has dropped further to a scary 0.44.

Surprisingly his HR rate has fluctuated independently of that GB/FB rate. In 2002 he served at the pleasure of the gopher to the tune of 1.29/ 9IP. In 2003 his HR rate jumped to 1.56. In his breakout year that rate took a dip to a reasonable 1.01/9. This year he’s serving again, this time at a rate of 2.2/9.

Anything adding up yet? Not for me either.

Your first tendency in a case like this is to think Oliver overachieved in 2004 and if he reverted more closely to his pre-2004 indicators, you’d have a pretty good case. Unfortunately, while you might reasonably expect a rebound from his 2004 high, he’s done more than that, he’s regressed.

There might be some answers in our Player Production Charts. Two features of our PPCs, for pitchers, are Stranded Percentage and BHIP% (which we talked about last week). Stranded percentage indicates the percentage of runners that reach base against a pitcher who don’t score. Like Ball Hit in Play % (BHIP% - the percentage of ball hit in play that fall for hits), Stranded percentage is one of those stats that seems to be pretty level among all starters. Some pitchers demonstrate a repeatable ability to post elevated Strand Percentage, but for the most part, pitchers will fall in a very narrow range between .70, and .74.

Perez’s Stranded Percentage history is 0.79 in 2002, 0.70 in 2003, 0.79 in 2004 and 0.68 this season.

His BHIP% history reads as follows: .250 in 2002, .316 in 2003, .266 in .2004 and .315 so far this year.

So what have we got?

In 2004 Oliver conjured up the perfect storm. He was dominant (10.9K/9) and that kept hitters from putting the ball in play. When they did put the ball in play he has some good luck going too (his .266 BHIP% was .022 lower than the MLB average). That led to a .207 OBA and .295 OOBP which combined with some good fortune in his strand rate (0.79, 0.08 better than average) to mean that fewer guys were getting on, and fewer of those guys were getting home.

Don’t let guys put the ball in play, get lucky when they do and allow fewer hits, and have the good fortune to keep more of those guys from scoring. That’ll work every time.

This year all of that is working against him. He’s walking more hitters, allowing more balls in play. The balls he’s allowing in play are dropping at a rate that’s .049 worse than last year and those baserunners are scoring at a rate that’s 0.11 higher than last year. Add in the rise in his HR rate and you start to understand why his numbers look the way they do.

Here’s what we can look for. First forget 2004 for now. That’s an aberration until he proves otherwise. Still we can look for his command to rebound upward a bit as he approaches his pre-2004 levels. That’s a reasonable expectation. We can also look for him to start to get a little luckier in terms of BHIP% and Strand Percentage. That’s reasonable too.

The things that concern me most are:

1) The drop in his K rate. It’s early, but his rate is low enough for me to have suspicions about his health and/or mechanics. I’m basing that speculation solely on that K rate, but right now, it’s enough off his graph to make me wonder.

2) The homers. He’s susceptible to the long ball. He has a documented history of this issue, and the elevation of this rate begs the same mechanics/health concerns. In fact that’s also backed up by …

3) His GB/FB ratio. Again, his split this year is worse than even his history would indicate. The reversion is enough to make me wonder if he’s toying with his motion or if there’s something else going on. In any event, he throws too many flyballs to be successful if he can’t strikeout 10+/9IP. Even then, with the HRs he allows, it’s an open question whether he can be effective unless he gets very fortunate in his BHIP% and his strand rate as he did in 2004. And there’s nothing in his history that even hints he can improve this aspect of his game significantly.

The bottom line, as it almost always is, is that he’s not as good as he was in 2004 and Oliver isn’t as bad as he is right now. He’s going to get better, but a return to 2004 form this season would surprise me … a lot. Chances are that he ends up some where between 4.00 and 4.50 in ERA and with the Bucs he may repeat his 12 wins, but he’ll likely lose double figures as well.

He’s only 22 so Oliver is still a work in progress. If he can return to a K rate of 10+/9 he’ll be an effective pitcher. If he can keep the ball in the park he’ll be even better. But 2004 was the result of a lot of things going well for him at the right time.

Long term he really needs to start getting the ball down in the zone and he needs to throw more GBs. That may happen but it won’t for a while. In the short term keep an eye on his K rate. If it stays sub-9.0/9 he’s going to have a long summer.


Holy crap 8-o

That was practically a research paper. Did you write that for school? I read every word and now my eyes hurt. However, it was very interesting and informative and it helped me make the decision to leave Ollie on the ww for now.

Thanks for posting that ;-D

*rubs his eyes*
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Re: OLIVER PEREZ

Postby Jobu » Tue May 10, 2005 12:28 pm

_Simulacrum_ wrote:
Jobu wrote:
Jwilliams5521 wrote:is it time to push the panic button on this guy? hes had only 1 good start this whole year and his k numbers are down. wonder if that injury is still lingering or do we have a case of the sophomore slump on our hands


Perez is overrated. If his performance thus far and history in the MLB prior to last year hasn't convinced you, see the following.

Pirates’ starter Oliver Perez had a breakout season last year at 22-years old. He went 12-10 with the Bucs and posted a 2.99 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP in 196 IP. His K/BB rose to 2.95 which was significantly better than his current career K/BB of 2.19 and his OBA was a paltry .207. His opponents batting line last season was .207/.295/.359.

That’s pretty heady stuff.

This year Oliver is 1-3 with a 7.11 ERA over 31.2 IP and 6 starts. He gave up 19 runs in 19 IP over his first four starts and then had a flashback to 2004 against the Astros on April 25th when he tossed 7.2 shutout innings allowing just 4 hits and two walks while striking out 9. He couldn’t continue that success into Sunday’s start however as the Giants got to him for 6 runs, all earned, in 5 IP, on 7 hits, 5 walks and just one strikeout. One.

Ok, command and dominance are first two places you go with pitchers. Oliver posted a 1.95 K/BB in 2002, 1.83 in 2003, 2.95 last year and so far this year he’s posted a 1.22 K/BB.

His K/9 has taken a similar path. He struck out 9.40 in 2002, 10.02 in 2003, 10.97 last year and so far his K rate has taken a dip to 7.96.

Oliver’s control has suffered as well. In 2002 he walked 4.7/ 9IP. In 2003 it was a scary 5.4/9. Last year he got his walks down to 3.6/9, but this season he’s back up to … you may want to sit down … 6.0/9.

How about one of my favorites, GB/FB ratio? Well, Oliver isn’t much a ground ball pitcher anyway, but the path of his GB/FB split is a little different. He posted an 0.80 GB/FB in 2002, 0.93 in 2003, and in his outstanding 2004, his GB/FB dipped to 0.74. This year that rate has dropped further to a scary 0.44.

Surprisingly his HR rate has fluctuated independently of that GB/FB rate. In 2002 he served at the pleasure of the gopher to the tune of 1.29/ 9IP. In 2003 his HR rate jumped to 1.56. In his breakout year that rate took a dip to a reasonable 1.01/9. This year he’s serving again, this time at a rate of 2.2/9.

Anything adding up yet? Not for me either.

Your first tendency in a case like this is to think Oliver overachieved in 2004 and if he reverted more closely to his pre-2004 indicators, you’d have a pretty good case. Unfortunately, while you might reasonably expect a rebound from his 2004 high, he’s done more than that, he’s regressed.

There might be some answers in our Player Production Charts. Two features of our PPCs, for pitchers, are Stranded Percentage and BHIP% (which we talked about last week). Stranded percentage indicates the percentage of runners that reach base against a pitcher who don’t score. Like Ball Hit in Play % (BHIP% - the percentage of ball hit in play that fall for hits), Stranded percentage is one of those stats that seems to be pretty level among all starters. Some pitchers demonstrate a repeatable ability to post elevated Strand Percentage, but for the most part, pitchers will fall in a very narrow range between .70, and .74.

Perez’s Stranded Percentage history is 0.79 in 2002, 0.70 in 2003, 0.79 in 2004 and 0.68 this season.

His BHIP% history reads as follows: .250 in 2002, .316 in 2003, .266 in .2004 and .315 so far this year.

So what have we got?

In 2004 Oliver conjured up the perfect storm. He was dominant (10.9K/9) and that kept hitters from putting the ball in play. When they did put the ball in play he has some good luck going too (his .266 BHIP% was .022 lower than the MLB average). That led to a .207 OBA and .295 OOBP which combined with some good fortune in his strand rate (0.79, 0.08 better than average) to mean that fewer guys were getting on, and fewer of those guys were getting home.

Don’t let guys put the ball in play, get lucky when they do and allow fewer hits, and have the good fortune to keep more of those guys from scoring. That’ll work every time.

This year all of that is working against him. He’s walking more hitters, allowing more balls in play. The balls he’s allowing in play are dropping at a rate that’s .049 worse than last year and those baserunners are scoring at a rate that’s 0.11 higher than last year. Add in the rise in his HR rate and you start to understand why his numbers look the way they do.

Here’s what we can look for. First forget 2004 for now. That’s an aberration until he proves otherwise. Still we can look for his command to rebound upward a bit as he approaches his pre-2004 levels. That’s a reasonable expectation. We can also look for him to start to get a little luckier in terms of BHIP% and Strand Percentage. That’s reasonable too.

The things that concern me most are:

1) The drop in his K rate. It’s early, but his rate is low enough for me to have suspicions about his health and/or mechanics. I’m basing that speculation solely on that K rate, but right now, it’s enough off his graph to make me wonder.

2) The homers. He’s susceptible to the long ball. He has a documented history of this issue, and the elevation of this rate begs the same mechanics/health concerns. In fact that’s also backed up by …

3) His GB/FB ratio. Again, his split this year is worse than even his history would indicate. The reversion is enough to make me wonder if he’s toying with his motion or if there’s something else going on. In any event, he throws too many flyballs to be successful if he can’t strikeout 10+/9IP. Even then, with the HRs he allows, it’s an open question whether he can be effective unless he gets very fortunate in his BHIP% and his strand rate as he did in 2004. And there’s nothing in his history that even hints he can improve this aspect of his game significantly.

The bottom line, as it almost always is, is that he’s not as good as he was in 2004 and Oliver isn’t as bad as he is right now. He’s going to get better, but a return to 2004 form this season would surprise me … a lot. Chances are that he ends up some where between 4.00 and 4.50 in ERA and with the Bucs he may repeat his 12 wins, but he’ll likely lose double figures as well.

He’s only 22 so Oliver is still a work in progress. If he can return to a K rate of 10+/9 he’ll be an effective pitcher. If he can keep the ball in the park he’ll be even better. But 2004 was the result of a lot of things going well for him at the right time.

Long term he really needs to start getting the ball down in the zone and he needs to throw more GBs. That may happen but it won’t for a while. In the short term keep an eye on his K rate. If it stays sub-9.0/9 he’s going to have a long summer.


Holy crap 8-o

That was practically a research paper. Did you write that for school? I read every word and now my eyes hurt. However, it was very interesting and informative and it helped me make the decision to leave Ollie on the ww for now.

Thanks for posting that ;-D

*rubs his eyes*


It's actually from a recent Fantistics daily report.
Jobu
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