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Is Willie Ever Gonna Send Beltran????

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Postby DK » Sat May 07, 2005 10:43 am

I'm going to go off on a bit of a tangent here, so bear with me.

Regarding SB's in relevance to team success- stolen bases has little- if any- correlation with a team's run production.

In 2004:

In the NL, 6 teams stole at least 100 bases. 4 of them were in the bottom half of the league in runs scored. The other two were St. Louis and Philadelphia, and it's safe to say (in my opinion) that they weren't known for their running ability as much as their power and OBP.

In the AL, 5 teams stole at least 100 bases. None of them were in the top 5 in runs scored, and four were in the bottom half of the league. The one that wasn't, Baltimore, had the 4th-best OBP in the AL, after New York, Boston, and Cleveland.

In 2003, only two teams in the NL stole 100 bases. Florida stole 150, was caught 74 times, and was right in the middle in terms of runs scored. Montreal, the other, was at the bottom. In fact, the top stolen base teams all kind of clutter in the bottom half, and the teams with fewer stolen bases are all at the top.

I could go on... But I'm tired right now and have other work to do. Basically the same trends endure.

Stolen bases have little correlation to runs scored and offensive production.
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Postby Laean » Sat May 07, 2005 10:55 am

Y`s Guy wrote:Speed is speed and it's a tool any way it is used. Willy Tavares has speed in the OF. Carl Crawford has speed on the basepaths. It's the same thing.


you claimed that beltran's agent got beltran's salary "up in the stratosphere using the '5-tool player'" argument and it's illogical of the Mets to not use the "figgin' 5th tool.

i'm just pointing out that the mets don't necessarily have to have beltran steal bases to be using the "5th tool." they could be using it already by just having him leg out a single, turn a single into a double with his speed, scoring from 2nd on a weak single, etc. that IS utilizing the 5th tool as real baseball would define it.
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Postby AznHisoka » Sat May 07, 2005 11:29 am

davidmarver wrote:And this is exactly why I drafted Vlad over him. Vlad's a better hitter, by a considerable margin IMO, and with the possibility Beltran wouldn't run it make Vlad the better pick. Glad I did that :-D


I, and I think most other Beltran owners would've picked Vladimir Guerrero before Beltran EASILY. But I had the worst draft pick at #4, and missed out on the top 3 in Pujols, AROD, and Vlad. I had to pick Beltran based on value, but I put Beltran on the same level as Tejada, Manny Ramirez, and even Todd Helton.
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Postby Laean » Sat May 07, 2005 11:47 am

AznHisoka wrote:
davidmarver wrote:And this is exactly why I drafted Vlad over him. Vlad's a better hitter, by a considerable margin IMO, and with the possibility Beltran wouldn't run it make Vlad the better pick. Glad I did that :-D


I, and I think most other Beltran owners would've picked Vladimir Guerrero before Beltran EASILY. But I had the worst draft pick at #4, and missed out on the top 3 in Pujols, AROD, and Vlad. I had to pick Beltran based on value, but I put Beltran on the same level as Tejada, Manny Ramirez, and even Todd Helton.


i had those same 3 as my top 3 too. i had soriano ranked 4th over beltran at 5th though.

lots of my leaguemates were saying i was crazy to put soriano that high but i felt like he'd rebound and a 35 30 2B is worth more than a 40 40 OF in my opinion.
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Postby CubsFan7724 » Sat May 07, 2005 12:14 pm

DK wrote:I'm going to go off on a bit of a tangent here, so bear with me.

Regarding SB's in relevance to team success- stolen bases has little- if any- correlation with a team's run production.

In 2004:

In the NL, 6 teams stole at least 100 bases. 4 of them were in the bottom half of the league in runs scored. The other two were St. Louis and Philadelphia, and it's safe to say (in my opinion) that they weren't known for their running ability as much as their power and OBP.

In the AL, 5 teams stole at least 100 bases. None of them were in the top 5 in runs scored, and four were in the bottom half of the league. The one that wasn't, Baltimore, had the 4th-best OBP in the AL, after New York, Boston, and Cleveland.

In 2003, only two teams in the NL stole 100 bases. Florida stole 150, was caught 74 times, and was right in the middle in terms of runs scored. Montreal, the other, was at the bottom. In fact, the top stolen base teams all kind of clutter in the bottom half, and the teams with fewer stolen bases are all at the top.

I could go on... But I'm tired right now and have other work to do. Basically the same trends endure.

Stolen bases have little correlation to runs scored and offensive production.

I think this goes out the window when you have such a good base stealer as Beltran. I know his SB/CS% is ridiculously high, and one of the better in history. I think he should be given the almost permanently green light, because he is so good at knowing when to run and when not to. So the argument with poor basestealers goes out the window, because he isn't. So, what are the mets paying him for if he isn't going to use his base stealing talent to score more runs? (Beltran is so good at stealing that it will affect the runs if his teammates don't suck.) If he doesn't steal, his other offensive production + his defense is not worth that money. They need to take the reins off on Beltran and let him do what he does best.
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Postby gpurcell » Sat May 07, 2005 1:35 pm

Beltran's biggest problem is that he doesn't get to steal against Mike "Two Hop" Piazza!

:-D
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Postby rotterdam_82 » Sat May 07, 2005 1:48 pm

Laean wrote:
AznHisoka wrote:
davidmarver wrote:And this is exactly why I drafted Vlad over him. Vlad's a better hitter, by a considerable margin IMO, and with the possibility Beltran wouldn't run it make Vlad the better pick. Glad I did that :-D


I, and I think most other Beltran owners would've picked Vladimir Guerrero before Beltran EASILY. But I had the worst draft pick at #4, and missed out on the top 3 in Pujols, AROD, and Vlad. I had to pick Beltran based on value, but I put Beltran on the same level as Tejada, Manny Ramirez, and even Todd Helton.


i had those same 3 as my top 3 too. i had soriano ranked 4th over beltran at 5th though.

lots of my leaguemates were saying i was crazy to put soriano that high but i felt like he'd rebound and a 35 30 2B is worth more than a 40 40 OF in my opinion.


I picked Soriano 5th for what its worth. I was regretting it big tme up until last night. Shame he isn't running, but I'll take those bombs to the bank :-D
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