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Should Kerry Wood become the next John Smoltz?

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Postby BigMusky » Fri May 06, 2005 5:52 pm

beltrans_boy wrote:All I can say as a Mark Prior owner is to GET LATROY THE F*** OUTTA THERE!!!


B-)
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Postby Conner » Fri May 06, 2005 6:34 pm

davidmarver wrote:
Conner wrote:Considering how short the timespan is for dominant relievers (with Rivera one obvious exception)...

C'mon, Hoffman's gotta be there more obvious choice. Longer career, higher save percentage...


First of all.....Dude, who cares?


Second of all...Rivera's been dominant every single year he's been a relief pitcher (5 years with an ERA under 2, no years with and ERA over 2.87), with almost no injuries (which was my point to begin with).

Hoffman pitched 9 innings in 2003, and has never had an ERA under 2, with 3 years over 2.9 (3 and a half ERA in 2001, and 3.9 back in '95).


Is Hoffmn another excption to the "dominant relievers don't last long" rule?

Yes.

I didn't say Rivera was th only exception...just one of the few exceptions.


P.S. Save percentage isn't a good stat anyway...but what's the difference btween them? One percent?

Rivera's career OPS against: .569
Hoffman's career OPS against: .601
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Postby This is the year » Fri May 06, 2005 7:21 pm

Dusty Baker recently came to speak at my college. Somebody asked him about converting Kerry Wood to be the Cubs closer. This was his response:

"Well, a closer's gotta throw strikes"

He didn't seem to think much of the idea B-)
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Postby davidmarver » Fri May 06, 2005 8:18 pm

Conner wrote:P.S. Save percentage isn't a good stat anyway...but what's the difference btween them? One percent?

Rivera's career OPS against: .569
Hoffman's career OPS against: .601


Yeah, I know. The purpose of a closer is to have the lowest OPS. Wait, no, it's to close games. Hoffman is more effective in that respect, therefore the better closer.

To the topic of the whole thread: I actually like the idea of Wood at closer. As a pitcher, I can tell you it's far easier to throw 15 pitches four straight days than to throw 60 every fourth (yes, I know it's fifth in the pros). Many starters throw between starts anyway. If you gave Wood the ball and he knew he had 15 pitches to use his hardest stuff, he'd be pretty dominant, and this is coming from a guy who thinks Wood is incredibly overvalued.

Look, if Eric Gagne can be a successful closer, with the stuff he didn't have as a starter, Wood can be a closer with the stuff he already has. Besides, the closer situation in Chicago is so bleak that this may actually be their best option.
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Postby Conner » Fri May 06, 2005 8:23 pm

davidmarver wrote:
Conner wrote:P.S. Save percentage isn't a good stat anyway...but what's the difference btween them? One percent?

Rivera's career OPS against: .569
Hoffman's career OPS against: .601


Yeah, I know. The purpose of a closer is to have the lowest OPS. Wait, no, it's to close games. Hoffman is more effective in that respect, therefore the better closer.


That's downright ignorant.
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Postby davidmarver » Fri May 06, 2005 8:50 pm

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Notice the last column. Save opportunities per save. Rivera blows a save once in just over seven and a half save opportunities while Hoffman blows one in every nine.

In fact, Rivera would have to, from this point on, convert (65.98) 66 straight save opportunities to pass Hoffman's career percentage.

Either that or have Hoffman blow 9.67 (10) straight saves, when Hoffman has only blown back-to-back saves ONCE in his entire career.
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Postby davidmarver » Fri May 06, 2005 8:56 pm

And to add to that, Hoffman's career WHIP is 1.05, Rivera's 1.07. Hoffman's k/9 is 10.11, Rivera's 8.03. Hoffman also had the more dominant single season between the two, converting 53 of 54 in 1998, while posting a 1.48 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. All those are better than Rivera ever posted.
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Postby Conner » Fri May 06, 2005 8:59 pm

davidmarver wrote:Image

Notice the last column. Save opportunities per save. Rivera blows a save once in just over seven and a half save opportunities while Hoffman blows one in every nine.

In fact, Rivera would have to, from this point on, convert (65.98) 66 straight save opportunities to pass Hoffman's career percentage.

Either that or have Hoffman blow 9.67 (10) straight saves, when Hoffman has only blown back-to-back saves ONCE in his entire career.


Again, I ask:

Who cares?

This thread is about Kerry Wood.


Either way...Save percetage is still a terrible statistic. Does it factor in two inning opportunies? Or how many times each of them came in with a 1 run lead, with guys on base? I'm not even going to bother with the "pressure situations" stuff (although it's tough to argue against Rivera being in many more of them than Hoffman) because it's just not quantifiable.

The fact that it's the only stat that you can come up with doesn't bode well for your argument.

But, again: I know that, as a Padre's fan, you've not nothing else to be proud of besides Trevor Hoffman....but nobody else cares.

Start a new thread if you want to praise Hoffman. This thread is about Kerry Wood.
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Postby davidmarver » Fri May 06, 2005 9:06 pm

Conner wrote:Either way...Save percetage is still a terrible statistic. Does it factor in two inning opportunies? Or how many times each of them came in with a 1 run lead, with guys on base? I'm not even going to bother with the "pressure situations" stuff (although it's tough to argue against Rivera being in many more of them than Hoffman) because it's just not quantifiable.

But, again: I know that, as a Padre's fan, you've not nothing else to be proud of besides Trevor Hoffman....but nobody else cares.


Wouldn't, in theory, it make more sense that Rivera came in with three-run leads more often than Hoffman since the Yankees have always been a better hitting team?

And the whole pressure thing is ridiculous. If a closer can't close in pressure situations what's the purpose of closing?
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Postby Conner » Fri May 06, 2005 9:12 pm

davidmarver wrote:
Conner wrote:Either way...Save percetage is still a terrible statistic. Does it factor in two inning opportunies? Or how many times each of them came in with a 1 run lead, with guys on base? I'm not even going to bother with the "pressure situations" stuff (although it's tough to argue against Rivera being in many more of them than Hoffman) because it's just not quantifiable.

But, again: I know that, as a Padre's fan, you've not nothing else to be proud of besides Trevor Hoffman....but nobody else cares.


Wouldn't, in theory, it make more sense that Rivera came in with three-run leads more often than Hoffman since the Yankees have always been a better hitting team?

And the whole pressure thing is ridiculous. If a closer can't close in pressure situations what's the purpose of closing?


No.


Can't you just lt it go?

The entire reason this "debate" started was because I said Rivera's one of the few guys who've stayed dominant over a long time, without getting hurt.

In return, you come up with save percentage (88 to 87) and the fact that Hoffman had one single season that's better than Rivera's.


Rivera's 100X better than Trevor Hoffman, and always has been. Hoffman could never do anything Rivera has done.

Rivera is the single reason for the yankees success during his career, and Hoffman is the reason for the Padre's sucking all these years.

Go cry about it. Either that, or just stop trying to win an argument that nobody else even cares about.
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