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"Contract Year" Theory??

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Postby ocmusicjunkie » Fri May 06, 2005 4:31 pm

The real question is this:

Do you believe working harder in the offseason and taking better care of your body will create better numbers?

If you do, then contract years are very real... because they are certainly motivation for certain players to do such things.
Help please:
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=1086524#1086524


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Postby Yoda » Fri May 06, 2005 4:38 pm

ocmusicjunkie wrote:
wrveres wrote:The theory is bunk, and we have had many, many articles and facts in here disproving it.

For every 1 player that someone claims had a contract year, I can name 10 that didn't.


You can't call it bunk. There is no statistical way to prove it as bunk.

Let me break this down, because I think you might agree:

It has been proven that, in total, MLB players do NOT play better during contract years.

HOWEVER, there are certainly single cases where it can have an impact. Like I've said over and over... if a player is out of shape, then decides to actually train prior to his contract year, this makes a HUGE difference. This is what I believe is true with someone like Beltre.


Sorry. You are just wrong.
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Postby ocmusicjunkie » Fri May 06, 2005 4:39 pm

Yoda wrote:
ocmusicjunkie wrote:
wrveres wrote:The theory is bunk, and we have had many, many articles and facts in here disproving it.

For every 1 player that someone claims had a contract year, I can name 10 that didn't.


You can't call it bunk. There is no statistical way to prove it as bunk.

Let me break this down, because I think you might agree:

It has been proven that, in total, MLB players do NOT play better during contract years.

HOWEVER, there are certainly single cases where it can have an impact. Like I've said over and over... if a player is out of shape, then decides to actually train prior to his contract year, this makes a HUGE difference. This is what I believe is true with someone like Beltre.


Sorry. You are just wrong.


Well, now that the enlightened one has informed me.. I shall back down.
Help please:
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=1086524#1086524


Harden- 2.15 ERA, 7.61 K/9
Peavy - 2.89 ERA, 10.10 K/9

[b]Lets go Rich![/b]
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Postby jayman » Fri May 06, 2005 4:40 pm

Yes, it can make a player train harder.
But, after that, what? They stop because they don't love the fame and attention they get from smacking the living day lights out of ball? They much rather be ridiculed by everyone?

And training isn't the holy grail of baseball. Kaz Matsui can train all he wants, without help (steriods) he won't be able to muster numbers anywhere near Kent or Soriano's. Gagne should go on a diet (looks fat to me). Hudson is a stick. That freaking Jeter needs to get on the J train and get off at Peter Lugers.

Talent is talent.
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Postby ocmusicjunkie » Fri May 06, 2005 4:43 pm

Talent is talent. But if training didn't help, you wouldn't see guys like Bonds in the weight room hours a day.

I'm sure for some guys, training doesn't do much. For pitchers, it doesn't do much very often. But look at Javy Lopez. The first day of his amazing season a couple of years ago, he was interviewed by TBS about how much more "fit' he looked, and he talked about how much he had improved his training routine.
Help please:
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=1086524#1086524


Harden- 2.15 ERA, 7.61 K/9
Peavy - 2.89 ERA, 10.10 K/9

[b]Lets go Rich![/b]
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Postby Yoda » Fri May 06, 2005 4:45 pm

ocmusicjunkie wrote:
Yoda wrote:
ocmusicjunkie wrote:
wrveres wrote:The theory is bunk, and we have had many, many articles and facts in here disproving it.

For every 1 player that someone claims had a contract year, I can name 10 that didn't.


You can't call it bunk. There is no statistical way to prove it as bunk.

Let me break this down, because I think you might agree:

It has been proven that, in total, MLB players do NOT play better during contract years.

HOWEVER, there are certainly single cases where it can have an impact. Like I've said over and over... if a player is out of shape, then decides to actually train prior to his contract year, this makes a HUGE difference. This is what I believe is true with someone like Beltre.


Sorry. You are just wrong.


Well, now that the enlightened one has informed me.. I shall back down.


Your argument makes no sense and you are simply reaching to support your bogus theory. Is that better?
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Postby BigMusky » Fri May 06, 2005 4:48 pm

The only way you could prove it is by looking at player who have stayed with the same team. Anyone that changes teams has too many other factors that can explain the drop in stats. But if a guy has certain averages...has a big year during his contract year...and then returns to the same team and goes back the averages he had before...then you can really blame it on anything else. Is there enough data for cases like this?
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Postby ocmusicjunkie » Fri May 06, 2005 4:54 pm

Yoda, how does my theory make no sense?

Player A is at 75% of his performance capacity for his first four years in the league, because he doesn't really train as hard as he could. Right now he's a .280/25/80 player. He realizes this isn't going to get him much money, and decides to really get motivated prior to his contract year. He drops 15lbs of bulk and adds muscle. He now runs faster, is stronger, and reaps the benefits. After the contract is signed, he reverts back to whatever sort of training he was content with for the first four years.

Is that SO hard to imagine? Because you know people do the same thing at their own places of work. If a promotion opportunity is coming up soon, they work harder. Few people are motivated enough to continue trying to impress once they are there.

Obviously, this can't happen for many MLB players... because the majority of super-talented MLB players already break their backs working hard every day. That's why the statistics measuring this across the board aren't going to work. Someone like Helton or Pujols isn't going to change a thing during their contract year, because they already are in peak form.

All I'm saying is that there are most certainly some cases where it applies.
Help please:
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=1086524#1086524


Harden- 2.15 ERA, 7.61 K/9
Peavy - 2.89 ERA, 10.10 K/9

[b]Lets go Rich![/b]
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Postby Yoda » Fri May 06, 2005 5:05 pm

ocmusicjunkie wrote:Yoda, how does my theory make no sense?

Player A is at 75% of his performance capacity for his first four years in the league, because he doesn't really train as hard as he could. Right now he's a .280/25/80 player. He realizes this isn't going to get him much money, and decides to really get motivated prior to his contract year. He drops 15lbs of bulk and adds muscle. He now runs faster, is stronger, and reaps the benefits. After the contract is signed, he reverts back to whatever sort of training he was content with for the first four years.

Is that SO hard to imagine? Because you know people do the same thing at their own places of work. If a promotion opportunity is coming up soon, they work harder. Few people are motivated enough to continue trying to impress once they are there.

Obviously, this can't happen for many MLB players... because the majority of super-talented MLB players already break their backs working hard every day. That's why the statistics measuring this across the board aren't going to work. Someone like Helton or Pujols isn't going to change a thing during their contract year, because they already are in peak form.

All I'm saying is that there are most certainly some cases where it applies.


Have you ever thought about how impossible it is to become an MLB baseball player? Think about it for just a second. There are 750 active players at any given time. About half of them are fighting for their jobs desperately b/c if they slip just a little bit, there are about 10 other guys who can replace you in a NY minute.

So no, your theory makes no sense. The fact that you can name maybe 5 players of 100+ free agents to be had a career year is a mere coincidence. Not the reason. Understand?
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Postby BigMusky » Fri May 06, 2005 5:09 pm

This is just one case that may not directly correlate to what we are talking about...but I am just throwing ideas out and people can find other cases. One person can not find them all.

Frank Thomas

Clause activated in contract stating he would become Free Agent after 2002 season for dimished skill. His salary was reduced from 10 million to 250K. Signed one year contract with Sox for 2003 season. He hit 40+ homers that year after hitting less then that the previous two years combined. Signed three year extension after 03 season and you know what he as done since.

So contract years seem to show that a player like Frank is much more willing to fight through an injury during a contract year and perform. Now lets see if I can a case where someone was not dealing with injury plagued seasons and upped their stats and stayed on same team. I know making conclusions off one case is dumb...but this seems like a familiar song in dance. I went for the easy one first :)
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