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Are Wins overrated in both H2H and Roto?

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Are Wins overrated in both H2H and Roto?

Postby jjigglers » Fri May 06, 2005 2:47 pm

It seems as if a lot of players grab these pitchers with 17-20 win potential, all the while knowing that they will most likely kill their team ratios. Why not just build a team of players with solid K, WHIP, ERA, then allocate an extra spot to pitching, which will more than make up for the extra wins.

Something like:
6 starters at 16 wins apiece, being pretty much equivalent to 7 starters at 13 wins, a 16 game winner being significantly more valuable than a 13 game winner.
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Postby great gretzky » Fri May 06, 2005 2:51 pm

hard to overrate 10 percent of your total score in a 5 by 5.

Chasing them is overrated, because they can be fluky. But they aren't "overrated" really.
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Postby BigMusky » Fri May 06, 2005 2:56 pm

wins are not overrated. It is hard to win games if you are a bad pitcher, so they are a moderately accurate measure of how good a player is. There are of course exceptions for good pitchers on horrible teams...see Sheets/Perez last year.

I dont think there are any 17-20 game winners that will kill your average. I think you are thinking of guys that are expected to be 20 games winners, but never reach that level because of horrible averages.
Last edited by BigMusky on Fri May 06, 2005 2:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby jjigglers » Fri May 06, 2005 2:58 pm

What I'm saying is although Wins are 10% if your team's score, they shouldnt be 25% of a Starting Pitchers value (4 categories for Starters) for the simple fact that yes, they are fluky, and also that they are a volume stat.

In fact, my starters are ranked
30% ERA,
35% WHIP,
25% K's,
10% Wins.

Yahoo!'s rankings are based on 20% to each category (Starters and Closers are lumped together) and you can see where those pitcher rankings are.
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Postby wrveres » Fri May 06, 2005 3:03 pm

In H2H wins are very overrated ..
Not in Roto though. In 12 team Roto punting a category is the worst thing you can do. It limits the margin for error in the other categories. You could get a money spot buy punting wins, but you won't 'win' in 12 team league.
Last edited by wrveres on Fri May 06, 2005 3:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby jjigglers » Fri May 06, 2005 3:05 pm

BigMusky wrote:wins are not overrated. It is hard to win games if you are a bad pitcher, so they are a moderately accurate measure of how good a player is. There are of course exceptions for good pitchers on horrible teams...see Sheets/Perez last year.

I dont think there are any 17-20 game winners that will kill your average. I think you are thinking of guys that are expected to be 20 games winners, but never reach that level because of horrible averages.


My argument being that many Boston and Yankee pitchers were getting selected high, and a lot of owners claiming a good chance of a lot of wins as the only reason.

As for wins equating to good pitching, wins are much more offense related, and also plain luck. Obviously the elite pitchers will get a lot more wins, but once you get into the 16-18 win range, you see last year:
Kenny Rogers (Tex): 18 W, 4.76 ERA, 1.48 WHIP
Bartolo Colon (LAA): 18 W, 5.01 ERA, 1.37 WHIP
Mark Mulder (OAK): 17 W, 4.43 ERA, 1.36 WHIP
Jeff Suppan (StL): 16 W, 4.16 ERA, 1.37 WHIP
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Postby great gretzky » Fri May 06, 2005 3:05 pm

well I also think "wins" help test your ability to play the matchups and be realtively familiar with the league in general, run support etc.

I have no problem with wins being 25 percent of a SP's worth.

This is why the abreu's and beltrans are worth THAT much.

For most players are afterall, 4 categories are less. HR's is 25 percent of pujols' worth...

I disagree with you on the yahoo rankings. I think they are off to some measure because scarcity seems factored in.

But at the end of the day, an SP is ranked against 4 cats. So a pitchers can really be worth something even if he won 25 games, but was moderate to bad in the others. PODS is like that for hitting

The only area I think it is "overrated" is because pitching, unlike hitting can move you backwards. a hitter can only go "ofer" a pitcher can move backwards in crappiness.

I think it is wise to evaluate pitchers deemphasising (sp) wins, but at the end of the day, that cat is still worth 20 percent.
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Postby jjigglers » Fri May 06, 2005 3:07 pm

wrveres wrote:In H2H wins are very overrated ..
Not in Roto though. In 12 team Roto punting a category is the worst thing you can do. It limits the margin for error in the other categories. You could get a money spot buy punting wins, but you won't 'win' in 12 team league.


Not punting, but drafting cheaper starters with lower ratios but less wins, and just drafting an extra starter or two instead of one or two bench hitters.
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Postby great gretzky » Fri May 06, 2005 3:13 pm

that is all well and good, but then you run into the IP problem in roto.

I honestly think this is why sometimes the cat comes down to who has the bad closers. Blown saves can sometimes stacka "w" column.

I personally like going for three closers and a mR for that reason. enough saves to be compeittive, but a reliever who might be able to win 5 or so games.
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Postby wrveres » Fri May 06, 2005 3:14 pm

jjigglers wrote:
wrveres wrote:In H2H wins are very overrated ..
Not in Roto though. In 12 team Roto punting a category is the worst thing you can do. It limits the margin for error in the other categories. You could get a money spot buy punting wins, but you won't 'win' in 12 team league.


Not punting, but drafting cheaper starters with lower ratios but less wins, and just drafting an extra starter or two instead of one or two bench hitters.


but in since, you would be punting.
You will give your self no real chance at wins, probably finishing at or neer the bottom. You will probably struggle in Strikeouts too.
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