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What is Sports Illustrated smoking? Top 20 young pitchers...

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Postby davidmarver » Tue May 03, 2005 7:55 pm

ocmusicjunkie wrote:I agree that there aren't many numbers you can toss around against Peavy, except that he only has 1 season (really more like 3/4) of a season of this level under his belt. Before that, he was pitching in the 4.xx ERA range. Given, he's young. Same reason I don't think you can truly use stats to measure Harden yet... the kids came in the same time they could drink. Let me throw out a few things that don't come up in last years stats that bump Peavy out of my top five (just to make it clear, he's still in my top 10).

He was 20 and 21 when those 4.xx ERA seasons occured. He then won the NL Cy Young at 22.

First, he pitches in the NL West. I know, I know... Bonds. But that's one guy. Harden and Hudson were facing the Texas and Anaheim buzzsaws. Oswalt had St. Louis hitting and Wrigley Field. I don't put THAT much weight into division matchups, but this has to be accounted for to some level.

You forgot that two of the top hitters parks, Coors and the BOB, are in the NL West.

Finally, and I stress this is totally subjective... but I look at what they are throwing too. If we're talking about guys who are all on this level and are still rising, I think it's fair to look at their pitches. I personally think Harden, Oswalt, and Sheets have better pure 'stuff' than Peavy. Of course that doesn't always translate to better numbers. Hudson doesn't throw anything eye-popping, but he can dominate like few others, simply because of pitch selection and good execution.

The thing that sets Peavy apart from the crowd is the fact that his best pitch is his changeup. This will put a lot less stress on his arm that it would if his main pitch was a curveball, ala Sheets. And I wouldn't call a 96 MPH fastball anything to ignore and his slider is certainly one of the best in the NL as well. Oh yeah, he also throws a curveball. Besides, his delivery gives all his pitches late movement. This will all help out his arm in the long-run since his 'stuff' doesn't rely on how much spin he puts on the ball, unlike the other 'top-tier' pitchers.

Peavy could certainly end up being a top-five guy soon... but to me 3/4 of last year and 4 weeks of this season doesn't have him there yet.

And 0/0's of a season makes Harden so good? Sure, he's had some dazzling starts, but once he gets half as consistent as Peavy, then start talking about Harden in the top ten. Until then, he's just a top-ten pitching prospect.


EDIT: By NL Cy Young I meant ERA crown. Talk about fantasy :-D
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Postby ocmusicjunkie » Tue May 03, 2005 8:02 pm

He was 20 and 21 when those 4.xx ERA seasons occured. He then won the NL Cy Young at 22.


You might want to tell Mr. Clemens that. ;-7
Help please:
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=1086524#1086524


Harden- 2.15 ERA, 7.61 K/9
Peavy - 2.89 ERA, 10.10 K/9

[b]Lets go Rich![/b]
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Postby davidmarver » Tue May 03, 2005 8:04 pm

ocmusicjunkie wrote:
He was 20 and 21 when those 4.xx ERA seasons occured. He then won the NL Cy Young at 22.


You might want to tell Mr. Clemens that. ;-7


Yeah, I edited my last post once I read it over.
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Postby WittyC » Tue May 03, 2005 8:05 pm

ocmusicjunkie wrote:^^ I agree, Peavy is better than Zambrano. I think CZam is the one who has a huge tent for no reason.


You're kidding, right? He's gone over 200 innings in the last two years with ERA's of 3.11 and 2.75. The only other guys who have done that are the "elite" pitchers of the league.

My only issue with Peavy is that he's been good for less than a year. And if his changeup is so good for his arm, then how come he spent extended time on the DL last year?

If I was a GM there is no way I would rather have the injury-prone Peavy than Zamby, who's shown he can put it all together for an extended period of time.
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Postby ocmusicjunkie » Tue May 03, 2005 8:08 pm

The simple fact is that if you look at all elite pitchers, they are smart guys who control themselves and the game around them. Zambrano can't even resist beaning people when he's mad about a HR from the previous batter. I do NOT want someone that unstable on the mound in a big game, because we've all seen the results caused by some of his meltdowns.
Help please:
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=1086524#1086524


Harden- 2.15 ERA, 7.61 K/9
Peavy - 2.89 ERA, 10.10 K/9

[b]Lets go Rich![/b]
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Postby davidmarver » Tue May 03, 2005 8:12 pm

Peavy has missed only seven starts in three + years and suddenly he's injury prone? C'mon. Almost all young pitchers have some sort of minor injury. Peavy got hurt last year, came back, and STILL won the NL ERA Crown.
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Postby ocmusicjunkie » Tue May 03, 2005 8:14 pm

davidmarver wrote:Peavy has missed only seven starts in three + years and suddenly he's injury prone? C'mon. Almost all young pitchers have some sort of minor injury. Peavy got hurt last year, came back, and STILL won the NL ERA Crown.


I think pitching 1/4 fewer innings might have HELPED him win ERA crown... but that's pure speculation. :-D

I think we need an avatar bet on the ERA crown this season. I'll take Tim Hudson if you'll take Peavy. ;-D
Help please:
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=1086524#1086524


Harden- 2.15 ERA, 7.61 K/9
Peavy - 2.89 ERA, 10.10 K/9

[b]Lets go Rich![/b]
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Postby davidmarver » Tue May 03, 2005 8:19 pm

ocmusicjunkie wrote:
davidmarver wrote:Peavy has missed only seven starts in three + years and suddenly he's injury prone? C'mon. Almost all young pitchers have some sort of minor injury. Peavy got hurt last year, came back, and STILL won the NL ERA Crown.


I think pitching 1/4 fewer innings might have HELPED him win ERA crown... but that's pure speculation. :-D

I think we need an avatar bet on the ERA crown this season. I'll take Tim Hudson if you'll take Peavy. ;-D


Sounds good, though I'd rather have a Peavy/Harden K/9 bet ;-D
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Postby RynMan » Tue May 03, 2005 8:19 pm

Rich Harden at only 11. :-t
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Postby davidmarver » Tue May 03, 2005 8:23 pm

ocmusicjunkie wrote:
davidmarver wrote:Peavy has missed only seven starts in three + years and suddenly he's injury prone? C'mon. Almost all young pitchers have some sort of minor injury. Peavy got hurt last year, came back, and STILL won the NL ERA Crown.


I think pitching 1/4 fewer innings might have HELPED him win ERA crown... but that's pure speculation. :-D


In order for Johnson (2nd place) to have tied Peavy, Peavy in his next 79.33 innings would had to have given up 29 earned runs (3.29 ERA).
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