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What is Sports Illustrated smoking? Top 20 young pitchers...

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Postby El Jefe » Tue May 03, 2005 7:11 pm

I never realized how much Brandon Webb looked exactly like Matt Mantei. :-?
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Postby KevB » Tue May 03, 2005 7:12 pm

You could argue Peavy as #3 or #4 overall IMO. Especially when you take health into consideration.
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Postby davidmarver » Tue May 03, 2005 7:24 pm

ocmusicjunkie wrote:
davidmarver wrote:Peavy's a top 6 pitcher in all the major leagues, let alone "youth".


I disagree.

Randy, Santana, Prior, Oswalt, Hudson, Sheets, Harden all get votes ahead of him in my book. Schmidt and Pedro would in most people's books.

Of course, that is all injury-pending... but I remember Peavy missing some time last year too.


Jake Peavy has given up more than two earned runs only five times in the last two seasons. He hasn't given up more than four earned runs once in his last two seasons, while Harden has done it six times. Schmidt has given up more than two earned runs five times to the PADRES in the last two seasons.

Peavy is consistent start to start, more consistent than any major league starter. While Santana is more of a shutdown pitcher, he does he get hit every once in awhile (although I don't like comparing AL to NL pitchers.) Randy is getting up there in age and what people don't realize is Peavy won the ERA crown at AGE 22! Rich Harden hasn't had a dominating season to give him a top ten nod yet, although he certainly looks promising. Oswalt over Peavy is just silly. Oswalt was a bi-product of a strong Houston offense last season.

People like to write Peavy's talents off because he pitches in Petco Park. Well, here's last year's road statistics for all the pitchers you mentioned:
Image

Funny how the pitcher with the best ERA (the most meaningful pitching statistic) was also the 2nd youngest; Jake Peavy (Rich Harden is younger by six months).

Peavy's picked up right where he left off last season. Five quality starts out of five. He'd be 5-0 if Hoffman held last game's lead and the Padres had any sort of offense in his games vs. Pittsburgh and Arizona.

Also, how could you forget Clemens in your list of top pitchers? The guy is a top three pitcher forever until he proves otherwise. My final list is:
1. Santana
2. Clemens
3. Prior
4. Peavy

Schilling and Johnson's injury struggles knock them off.
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Postby WittyC » Tue May 03, 2005 7:39 pm

First off, I don't think the order of this article means anything...

Second, the giant tent everyone's pitching for Jake Peavy is largely unwarranted.

Granted, Peavy's only 23, but Buehrle's thrown over 220 innings in each of the last four years with an ERA that eclipsed 4.00 just once. That's really amazing when you consider that he's pitching in the bandbox that is U.S. Cellular.

Also, rating Peavy anywhere near Carlos Zambrano is just a joke. They're essentially the same style of pitcher (high BB, high K), except Zamby's done it successfully for 2 full seasons, whereas Peavy did it for 166 innings in the one of the best pitchers' park in the league.

Let Peavy put together a full season that even sniffs what Zamby's done and I think we can start to give him some credit. Until then I just can't place him in that "top-tier" of pitchers.
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Postby Webster11 » Tue May 03, 2005 7:42 pm

I think the order does mean something. They have numbers nextto each pitchers name, i cant imagine why theyd have that if order doesnt matter. Also if order didnt matter wouldnt it have most likely been done alphabetically? And it would just be way too much of a coincidence to have Santana number 1 if order didnt matter and Francis number 20
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Postby ocmusicjunkie » Tue May 03, 2005 7:44 pm

I agree that there aren't many numbers you can toss around against Peavy, except that he only has 1 season (really more like 3/4) of a season of this level under his belt. Before that, he was pitching in the 4.xx ERA range. Given, he's young. Same reason I don't think you can truly use stats to measure Harden yet... the kids came in the same time they could drink. Let me throw out a few things that don't come up in last years stats that bump Peavy out of my top five (just to make it clear, he's still in my top 10).

First, he pitches in the NL West. I know, I know... Bonds. But that's one guy. Harden and Hudson were facing the Texas and Anaheim buzzsaws. Oswalt had St. Louis hitting and Wrigley Field. I don't put THAT much weight into division matchups, but this has to be accounted for to some level.

Second, Oswalt is certainly a top-five guy for me. Last season was the first time in his career that he was over 3.01 ERA. If you followed half of what he pitched through last year (injury-wise), that's still amazing.

Finally, and I stress this is totally subjective... but I look at what they are throwing too. If we're talking about guys who are all on this level and are still rising, I think it's fair to look at their pitches. I personally think Harden, Oswalt, and Sheets have better pure 'stuff' than Peavy. Of course that doesn't always translate to better numbers. Hudson doesn't throw anything eye-popping, but he can dominate like few others, simply because of pitch selection and good execution.

Peavy could certainly end up being a top-five guy soon... but to me 3/4 of last year and 4 weeks of this season doesn't have him there yet.
Help please:
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=1086524#1086524


Harden- 2.15 ERA, 7.61 K/9
Peavy - 2.89 ERA, 10.10 K/9

[b]Lets go Rich![/b]
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Postby ocmusicjunkie » Tue May 03, 2005 7:46 pm

BTW... I'm 100% sure that order does mean something. They even said for #20 "Kazmir could have taken this spot". Obviously meaning Francis was #20.
Help please:
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=1086524#1086524


Harden- 2.15 ERA, 7.61 K/9
Peavy - 2.89 ERA, 10.10 K/9

[b]Lets go Rich![/b]
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Postby davidmarver » Tue May 03, 2005 7:47 pm

WittyC wrote:Also, rating Peavy anywhere near Carlos Zambrano is just a joke. They're essentially the same style of pitcher (high BB, high K), except Zamby's done it successfully for 2 full seasons, whereas Peavy did it for 166 innings in the one of the best pitchers' park in the league.

Let Peavy put together a full season that even sniffs what Zamby's done and I think we can start to give him some credit. Until then I just can't place him in that "top-tier" of pitchers.


You obviously havn't seen Peavy pitch or looked at his statistics. Peavy had better road numbers than Zambrano last year. 3 non-quality starts by Zambrano this year out of five? 12 walks, which is twice the amount Peavy has, in less innings? Yeah, I guess Zambrano is better ;-7

Please read my last post. Maybe it's because he's not on ESPN every night, maybe because there's a PERCEPTION he's who he is because of Petco. Whatever it is, Peavy isn't as heralded as he should be.
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Postby ocmusicjunkie » Tue May 03, 2005 7:48 pm

^^ I agree, Peavy is better than Zambrano. I think CZam is the one who has a huge tent for no reason.
Help please:
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=1086524#1086524


Harden- 2.15 ERA, 7.61 K/9
Peavy - 2.89 ERA, 10.10 K/9

[b]Lets go Rich![/b]
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Postby WittyC » Tue May 03, 2005 7:50 pm

ocmusicjunkie wrote:BTW... I'm 100% sure that order does mean something. They even said for #20 "Kazmir could have taken this spot". Obviously meaning Francis was #20.


Okay... I'll buy that. I didn't really take time to read the explinations (I'm watching some MLB.TV right now).

Good analysis of stuff, but how can you leave Zamby off that list? Everything that guy throws moves about a mile. I think of all the young pitchers on that list he's got the filthiest stuff. If he can learn to cut down on the walks he's gonna have a bucket-full of Cy Youngs.
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