Alot of people do better during contract years. I'm not saying he's fine with hitting .200, but he never hit 40 homeruns before his contract year, so who's to say he will after.
What did Javy Lopez do before 2003? Absolute crap. Granted, he's doing better now, but he set MLB records in his contract year after being crap for a long span of time.
BronXBombers51 wrote:Alot of people do better during contract years. I'm not saying he's fine with hitting .200, but he never hit 40 homeruns before his contract year, so who's to say he will after.
What did Javy Lopez do before 2003? Absolute crap. Granted, he's doing better now, but he set MLB records in his contract year after being crap for a long span of time.
Yes, but that means that he still has the ability to hit 40. He's always been a top prospect with talent, last year he put it all together. Javy was always an out of shape catcher. He WORKED HIS ASS OFF allll offseason to achieve his top level of play. What about Beltran? Always just a 26-27 HR hitter, and last year, bam he hits almost 40. Is that because of contract year, too? Taking one example out of thousands doesn't prove a point effectively.
BronXBombers51 wrote:What did Javy Lopez do before 2003? Absolute crap. Granted, he's doing better now, but he set MLB records in his contract year after being crap for a long span of time.
i'll certainly grant that 2003 was a career year for javy, but it's not like .290 with 25 homers is "absolute crap". javy was a top catcher for most of the mid-late 90s. he just had two consecutive off-years in 2001-2002.
once you account for the park effect (camden vs. fulton county/turnner and playing in boston/NY instead of vs. the marlins and expos), his numbers arn't that different now from his career norms.
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last year beltre's foot was hurt pretty much all year. there was speculation that the injury may have contributed to his increased power, as he was more balanced in his stance and not putting as much weight on his hurt foot. plus he was playing for a contract. plus he is in a new stadium with a new team.
he'll be good, but not as good as he was last year.
BronXBombers51 wrote:Alot of people do better during contract years. I'm not saying he's fine with hitting .200, but he never hit 40 homeruns before his contract year, so who's to say he will after.
What did Javy Lopez do before 2003? Absolute crap. Granted, he's doing better now, but he set MLB records in his contract year after being crap for a long span of time.
Yes, but that means that he still has the ability to hit 40. He's always been a top prospect with talent, last year he put it all together. Javy was always an out of shape catcher. He WORKED HIS ASS OFF allll offseason to achieve his top level of play. What about Beltran? Always just a 26-27 HR hitter, and last year, bam he hits almost 40. Is that because of contract year, too? Taking one example out of thousands doesn't prove a point effectively.
Ok, his great season had nothing to do with his contract year...
Maybe I just chose to stay away from him because he's been trash for his entire career despite being a starter for a few years. It's not like he just came up from the minors and starting doing well like a Teixiera or some other prodigy. Guy has been junk for years, one good year isn't going to make me hop the bandwagon.
Show it to me a few times before I'll consider giving you any consideration.
Oliver Perez is to pitching as Beltre is to?
A) hitting
B) All of the above
Seriously, this is my only chance to say "I told you so."
Beltre was typically a horrible 1st half player before 2004 and it doesn't surprise me that he has reverted (along with Safeco influences).
As for contract year stuff, I do think guys are more likely to commit to fitness programs and play through pain more often in contract years....but a player simply cannot choose to 'hit 40 homers' because it is a contract year.
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the mariners coaches were saying how "great" beltre's work ethic was this spring. Also, he is moving from a known pitcher's park to a more friendly hitter's park, he is not in colorado or texas, but he is not playing with the mets or reds. His injury helped him last year?? That is absurd, he is just in a slump, and having the bone chips removed should help him improve his ba, and ops as he can run faster. Also factor in ichiro, a man that flirts with .400 ba every year hitting in front of him and can get to second with sb's. Beltre will be better will be a better ball player. Because of his april slump he may not have as many hrs but anyone that owned him last year knows that he can knock out five in a given week. Look out for him when he gets hot. Reed is also a potential rookie with high on base percentage. Contract years only have an effect on how someone plays depending on how he trains, and mariners said he was a boost to the rest of the club. Beltre is in my mind, the best third basemen in the league. Hold on to him, he will get hot and law of averages will have him hitting .400 for a few weeks.
It's too bad that analogies are out of the new SAT's.
Most top prospects don't make a major league splash immediately, guys like Tex and Wright are not that common. Beltre took his time to develop into a stud, adjusting to the Majors.
I had this debate with others pre-season. But he's had one great year and five mediocre years. How is everyone so sure that the one great year is his new "expected" level of performance?
I know he is young, and was highly touted for years, but I personally was not and am not convinced. I still expected 30-35 HR, but did not get him in my auction league as the bidding went much higher, likely in anticipation of another 40+ HR.
Anyway, he is a notorious 2nd half player, so I still think he'll heat up, but I still don't think he'll end up with much more than about 30 HR this year.
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by BronXBombers51 » Mon May 02, 2005 8:05 pm 
