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MR Strategy revisited after one month.

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Postby bleach168 » Sat Sep 24, 2005 9:57 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Don't really have an opinion on that. I was just pointing out that judging those relievers or the strategy based on one month was misleading. By the end of the year all of the supposedly difficult to predict MRs had done very well.


See, I don't think these MRs have done very well. At least for fantasy owners.

I really question the value of having a pitcher who throws 60 IP worth of 3.00 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.

People had much higher expectations for these MRs. Those numbers might be "ok" to you, but the opportunity cost of using MRs really hurts the bottom line.

No way should you use ever a middle pick on these MRs. A late pick maybe If you can afford the loss of a roster spot.
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Postby bleach168 » Sat Sep 24, 2005 10:11 pm

Yoda wrote:
New Zealand Fan wrote:Using an MR strategy in a normal 5 x 5 league from the beginning of the season is a negative tactic and will never win you a competitive league.


I couldn't disagree more. I have done just fine having one dominant MR over the years. This season I have Shields this season. ;-D


Shields proves the point I've been trying to make all along.

What makes Shields different (and a good pick) was his 300 IP track record of 2.90 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, strong K/9 pitching. The other MRs didn't have anywhere near 300 IP worth data to evaluate. Or if they did have did 300 IP, they weren't always good unlike Shields.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Sep 24, 2005 10:51 pm

bleach168 wrote:See, I don't think these MRs have done very well. At least for fantasy owners.

I really question the value of having a pitcher who throws 60 IP worth of 3.00 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.

People had much higher expectations for these MRs. Those numbers might be "ok" to you, but the opportunity cost of using MRs really hurts the bottom line.

No way should you use ever a middle pick on these MRs. A late pick maybe If you can afford the loss of a roster spot.


Really??
Let's give that statement a reality check.
Let's look back at the SP that were picked in those middle rounds in Yahoo. In a 12 team league, round 16 starts with pick 180. That was around the time the good MRs were picked. Rincon was average pick 180; Gordon was 181; Otsuka was 182.

Here are the first ten SP picked after pick 180 along with their stats:
Player, IP, W, Ks, ERA, WHIP
Westbrook, 195, 15, 109, 4.80, 1.31
Leiter, 139, 7, 94, 6.07, 1.78
Wells, 170, 13, 99, 4.49, 1.33
RuOrtiz, 111, 5, 45, 6.73, 1.82
KBrown, 73, 4, 50, 6.50, 1.72
Pineiro, 186, 7, 104, 5.42, 1.46
Arroyo, 201, 14, 98, 4.29, 1.27
Lilly, 119, 9, 93, 5.72, 1.52
Backe, 145, 10, 95, 4.59, 1.44
Lowe, 209, 11, 140, 3.65, 1.25

No starters with an ERA below 3.65. Only two with a WHIP below 1.30.

Pick even the two or three WORST of the MRs above that were available at the same time, and compare their wins, Ks, ERA, and WHIP. They easily dominate the SP available in those middle rounds.
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Postby bleach168 » Sat Sep 24, 2005 11:39 pm

Opportunity costs...

Team A drafts a top MR (Rincon), an mid MR(Otsuka), and a dud MR(Gonzalez). Ends up with 9 wins, 3 saves, 190 K's, 2.90 ERA, 1.30 WHIP. Good stuff you say.

Team B drafts a top SP (Lowe), an mid SP (Pineiro), and a dud SP (KBrown). Team B had a three chances to win the Dontrelle Willis lottery but missed it. Too bad. Also Team B would never touch Russ Ortiz or Al Leiter since no one at the Cafe was touting those bums.

Team B can't start all their SPs or would go over the limit so only starts them in good matchups (i.e. Lowe at home). After a few weeks, it's obvious Brown sucks so he is dropped. Not long before Pineiro gets to boot also. Team B is left with Derek Lowe so ends up with 11 Wins, 140 K's, 3.65 ERA, 1.25 WHIP.

The difference between the two teams now is Team B has two free roster spots to play with. Team B is the team that gets first crack at Morgan Ensberg, Cantu and Patterson any one of which would make Team B better than Team A.
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Postby NZF » Sun Sep 25, 2005 1:02 am

Yoda wrote:
New Zealand Fan wrote:Using an MR strategy in a normal 5 x 5 league from the beginning of the season is a negative tactic and will never win you a competitive league.


I couldn't disagree more. I have done just fine having one dominant MR over the years. This season I have Shields this season. ;-D


How is that utilising the MR strategy?
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Sep 25, 2005 8:47 am

bleach168 wrote:Opportunity costs...

Team A drafts a top MR (Rincon), an mid MR(Otsuka), and a dud MR(Gonzalez). Ends up with 9 wins, 3 saves, 190 K's, 2.90 ERA, 1.30 WHIP. Good stuff you say.

Team B drafts a top SP (Lowe), an mid SP (Pineiro), and a dud SP (KBrown). Team B had a three chances to win the Dontrelle Willis lottery but missed it. Too bad. Also Team B would never touch Russ Ortiz or Al Leiter since no one at the Cafe was touting those bums.

Team B can't start all their SPs or would go over the limit so only starts them in good matchups (i.e. Lowe at home). After a few weeks, it's obvious Brown sucks so he is dropped. Not long before Pineiro gets to boot also. Team B is left with Derek Lowe so ends up with 11 Wins, 140 K's, 3.65 ERA, 1.25 WHIP.

The difference between the two teams now is Team B has two free roster spots to play with. Team B is the team that gets first crack at Morgan Ensberg, Cantu and Patterson any one of which would make Team B better than Team A.


So, the BEST possible case you can build in which team A makes no changes to its roster (they CAN drop underperforming offensive players to nab those others) and Team B makes the best possible decisions, you still lose 3 pitching cats and win 2.

And, of course, if you only start Lowe at home (where his ERA was 3.78) then you only get 7 wins and lose that, too. And, of course, once you add in the games where you did start Brown and Pineiro and you add in their numbers, you might end up losing WHIP, too.

And hopefully you get lucky enough to win 5 offensive categories with those lower opportunity costs.

I'll construct a more realistic scenario later today.
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Postby Niffoc4 » Sun Sep 25, 2005 10:02 am

New Zealand Fan wrote:
Yoda wrote:
New Zealand Fan wrote:Using an MR strategy in a normal 5 x 5 league from the beginning of the season is a negative tactic and will never win you a competitive league.


I couldn't disagree more. I have done just fine having one dominant MR over the years. This season I have Shields this season. ;-D


How is that utilising the MR strategy?

It isn't... I don't think he realized that the discussion was whether or not to use multiple MR in place of Starters...

I don't know that anyone would argue against trying to find a single studly MR to put at the end of your rotation...

Also GotoWarMissAgnes, your top 10 still misses some of the players that were available at that point (ie Bedard, Capuano, Chris Young, maybe Haren?), even though most people went with starters with track records...
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Sep 25, 2005 1:04 pm

Niffoc4 wrote:
New Zealand Fan wrote:
Yoda wrote:
New Zealand Fan wrote:Using an MR strategy in a normal 5 x 5 league from the beginning of the season is a negative tactic and will never win you a competitive league.


I couldn't disagree more. I have done just fine having one dominant MR over the years. This season I have Shields this season. ;-D


How is that utilising the MR strategy?

It isn't... I don't think he realized that the discussion was whether or not to use multiple MR in place of Starters...

I don't know that anyone would argue against trying to find a single studly MR to put at the end of your rotation...

Also GotoWarMissAgnes, your top 10 still misses some of the players that were available at that point (ie Bedard, Capuano, Chris Young, maybe Haren?), even though most people went with starters with track records...


That's not a top ten, those are the first ten pitchers that were actually selected after pick 180 in Yahoo drafts. In other words, those are the pitchers that players were actually selecting in pre-season drafts at the same time they were picking the top MRs.

Of course, any one of us can go back after the season and identify players that were available at that time that performed great. But none of us has the ability to time travel.

The relevant question is how do MRs perform compared to the guys that are usually picked around the same time in drafts, because those are the decisions real people are making based on the information they had in March.

And the answer to that question is that MRs generally provide a LOT more value than the typical SP picked at that point in the draft. Despite the claims that MRs are "unpredictable" take a look at those ten MRs, all of whom were picked in those mid-rounds, and those ten SPs, all of whom were picked at the same time.

Which group would you want on your team?

If you had to close your eyes and pick two or three from each group from your roster, which group would you want to pick from?
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Postby RAmst23 » Sun Sep 25, 2005 2:44 pm

What is the best available pick at the time it is made? I think this is the basis of picking MRs later in the draft. Why take bad innings from a starter when you can have strong innings from a MR?

I agree with the "wait and see" approach to MRs though. Only draft a MR if you think he'll get save opportunities. What I try and do is use high risk picks later in the draft on pitchers and see if they start throwing well. If they don't, drop them for a good MR. You'll get about the same amount of innings from an MR as you would spot starting a SP.

The MR strategy provides more flexibility at the tail end of the draft. I picked up Myers late in the draft b/c I thought he could perform, and it worked (I also got Pineiro, yay!). Starting MRs works, you just need to be flexible and a little patience when picking one's pitchers.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Sep 25, 2005 5:01 pm

RAmst23 wrote:What is the best available pick at the time it is made? I think this is the basis of picking MRs later in the draft. Why take bad innings from a starter when you can have strong innings from a MR?

I agree with the "wait and see" approach to MRs though. Only draft a MR if you think he'll get save opportunities. What I try and do is use high risk picks later in the draft on pitchers and see if they start throwing well. If they don't, drop them for a good MR. You'll get about the same amount of innings from an MR as you would spot starting a SP.

The MR strategy provides more flexibility at the tail end of the draft. I picked up Myers late in the draft b/c I thought he could perform, and it worked (I also got Pineiro, yay!). Starting MRs works, you just need to be flexible and a little patience when picking one's pitchers.



And my argument is that I think people ought to re-think that strategy. I think most players would come out better doing the reverse. Pick up the top MR in those middle rounds, then grab SPs at the end of the draft and through waivers during the season. Here are some guys that were drafted in rounds 22+ in expert drafts or were ranked 265 or below in pre-season rankings: Haren, Doug Davis, Webb, Eaton, CLee, Lackey, Millwood, Contreras, Lowry, Patterson, Capuano, Harang, Chen.

I don't see that the typical SP picked in the middle rounds, on average, differs from the typical SP picked in the late rounds.

And the typical MR you can get in the middle rounds is better than the whole bunch of them.
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