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MR Strategy revisited after one month.

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Postby davidmarver » Tue May 03, 2005 1:38 am

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The opponents batting average is the most telling number, in my opinion. Hitters still havn't quite figured out these pitchers, they've just been a little erratic with their control. It's April, so I wouldn't read much into it. These pitchers will get themselves under control and be just fine.

We could make a thread similar to this one about why you shouldn't draft first-basemen based on how a lot of them have performed thus far. It's really not too relevent because it's too early to write off these pitchers, especially in a roto league.
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Postby bobby » Tue May 03, 2005 2:06 am

.326 BA against and 1.84 WHIP for Otsuka? Gordon has a 4.76 ERA and 1.41 WHIP?? :-o
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Postby KolbSaves » Tue May 03, 2005 2:10 am

davidmarver wrote:Image

The opponents batting average is the most telling number, in my opinion. Hitters still havn't quite figured out these pitchers, they've just been a little erratic with their control. It's April, so I wouldn't read much into it. These pitchers will get themselves under control and be just fine.

We could make a thread similar to this one about why you shouldn't draft first-basemen based on how a lot of them have performed thus far. It's really not too relevent because it's too early to write off these pitchers, especially in a roto league.

A pitcher has less control over hits allowed than over walks, so how do you figure opp baa is the most telling number?
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Postby davidmarver » Tue May 03, 2005 2:12 am

KolbSaves wrote:A pitcher has less control over hits allowed than over walks, so how do you figure opp baa is the most telling number?

I meant that it'll be the most telling number for how they'll fare this season, if you can take anything out of one month's statistics.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue May 03, 2005 7:01 am

bleach168 wrote:Gonzo? You mean 0 wins, 0 saves, 4.15 ERA qualifies him as a stud? I'm sure his owners are happy with the production they have gotten so far. :-?

Calero? I called him a stud.

As for jumping the gun too early on these MRs, 7 out of the 10 are duds. To me, that's more of a trend than coincidence.

If you want to look at closers (excluding save totals to be fair),

Gagne - no stats (injured)
Rivera - dud
Lidge - stud
Foulke - dud
Wagner - stud
K-Rod - stud
Nathan - stud
Izzy - stud (until injured)
Benitez - dud (until injured)
Dotel - stud

If healthy, Gagne would very likely be a stud. That still leaves 6 out of the remaining 9 as studs. Anyone want to bet against Rivera and Foulke returning to stud status by the end of the year?


No, I'm saying "dud" or "stud" is a really simplistic way of describing performance. Gonzo has been neither.

If we apply that same criteria strictly to your closers (sorry injured = big dud), we have 5 duds. And those guys went in WAY higher rounds than the MRs. How many duds are there among position players that went in mid to late rounds of drafts?
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Postby KolbSaves » Tue May 03, 2005 10:04 am

davidmarver wrote:
KolbSaves wrote:A pitcher has less control over hits allowed than over walks, so how do you figure opp baa is the most telling number?

I meant that it'll be the most telling number for how they'll fare this season, if you can take anything out of one month's statistics.

Ah, I disagree.
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Re: MR Strategy revisited after one month.

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Sep 24, 2005 12:17 pm

bleach168 wrote:Here are 10 highly touted MRs going into this year,

Otsuka - dud
Gonzalez - dud
Rincon - stud (but with roid suspension may quickly turn into dud)
Shields - stud
Linebrink - dud
Donnelly - dud (but has been good lately, may be a stud soon)
Ayala - dud
Calero - stud
Urbina - dud
Gordon - dud

7 out of 10 of the best MRs are duds. Sure, if you take the top 3 MRs at the end of this year and compare them to the Cy Young, the overall stats will look very similar. However, finding those studs in a field of duds is extremely challenging.

While I do use MRs myself, I would recommend against relying on the strategy. Make sure you draft quality SPs and only use super late picks on MRs. In leagues where roster space is at a premium, I would avoid the MR strategy altogether.



And now:
Otsuka: OK
Gonzo: dud
Rincon: Stud
Shields: Stud
Linebrink: Stud
Donnelly - OK
Ayala - OK
Calero - OK
Urbina - OK
Gordon: Stud

Only one really bad choice, and even that's a guy who had more than 1 K per inning, and an ERA under 3.00
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Postby NZF » Sat Sep 24, 2005 7:59 pm

Using an MR strategy in a normal 5 x 5 league from the beginning of the season is a negative tactic and will never win you a competitive league.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Sep 24, 2005 9:35 pm

Don't really have an opinion on that. I was just pointing out that judging those relievers or the strategy based on one month was misleading. By the end of the year all of the supposedly difficult to predict MRs had done very well.
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Postby Yoda » Sat Sep 24, 2005 9:53 pm

New Zealand Fan wrote:Using an MR strategy in a normal 5 x 5 league from the beginning of the season is a negative tactic and will never win you a competitive league.


I couldn't disagree more. I have done just fine having one dominant MR over the years. This season I have Shields this season. ;-D
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