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MR Strategy revisited after one month.

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Postby AcidRock23 » Mon May 02, 2005 9:43 pm

good tips on not jumping to conclusions but, FWIW strategywise, I had Linebrink in the second half last year, when he was pretty much lights out, and it was pretty amazing stuff, particularly given the pointlessness of the Pads' season after a certain point....177 BAA, 2.04 ERA and .91 WHIP in the second half. Not a bad boost for numbers. I think that the strategy CAN work but I have become inclined to agree that you might as well wait for the season to develop to see who's 'on' and who's 'off' the bus...
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Postby slomo007 » Mon May 02, 2005 9:53 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Let's re-evaluate at the end of the year, based on drafted versus undrafted MR.


Can we also include the stats of guys drafted late in drafts after many MRs were drafted? For example, I drafted Brad Penny in the 16th round, while Rincon went in the 11th and Gordon went in the 12th rounds in my non-holds league.

Nobody is saying that MRs don't have value, what I am saying is that it's better to draft based on potential, then start cutting players who aren't panning out for the rather unspectacular yet adequate MRs that you can find on your FA list at some point in to the season.
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Re: MR Strategy revisited after one month.

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon May 02, 2005 9:55 pm

bleach168 wrote:Here are 10 highly touted MRs going into this year,

Otsuka - dud
Gonzalez - dud
Rincon - stud (but with roid suspension may quickly turn into dud)
Shields - stud
Linebrink - dud
Donnelly - dud (but has been good lately, may be a stud soon)
Ayala - dud
Calero - stud
Urbina - dud
Gordon - dud


How is Gonzo a dud? 10 Ks in 8 IP and a 1.15 WHIP?
How is Calero a dud? 11 Ks in 8 IP, 2 wins, 0.00 ERA and 0.96 WHIP?
Ayala and Urbina are, at best mildly underperforming, based on draft levels.

So, just like with closers so far, 5 of the top 5 are significantly underperforming.

Let's see what it looks like in September,
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon May 02, 2005 9:57 pm

slomo007 wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Let's re-evaluate at the end of the year, based on drafted versus undrafted MR.


Can we also include the stats of guys drafted late in drafts after many MRs were drafted? For example, I drafted Brad Penny in the 16th round, while Rincon went in the 11th and Gordon went in the 12th rounds in my non-holds league.

Nobody is saying that MRs don't have value, what I am saying is that it's better to draft based on potential, then start cutting players who aren't panning out for the rather unspectacular yet adequate MRs that you can find on your FA list at some point in to the season.


Absolutely. I think MRs should be compared to other players that were available in the round they were chosen. If you want, we can use my league's draft (16 team mixed league that uses holds) or one of the draft summaries, if you can find one that has enough MRs.
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Postby bleach168 » Mon May 02, 2005 10:09 pm

Gonzo? You mean 0 wins, 0 saves, 4.15 ERA qualifies him as a stud? I'm sure his owners are happy with the production they have gotten so far. :-?

Calero? I called him a stud.

As for jumping the gun too early on these MRs, 7 out of the 10 are duds. To me, that's more of a trend than coincidence.

If you want to look at closers (excluding save totals to be fair),

Gagne - no stats (injured)
Rivera - dud
Lidge - stud
Foulke - dud
Wagner - stud
K-Rod - stud
Nathan - stud
Izzy - stud (until injured)
Benitez - dud (until injured)
Dotel - stud

If healthy, Gagne would very likely be a stud. That still leaves 6 out of the remaining 9 as studs. Anyone want to bet against Rivera and Foulke returning to stud status by the end of the year?
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Postby slomo007 » Mon May 02, 2005 10:21 pm

They're MRs for a reason....they're not that good. ;-)

If they had closer stuff, they would be closers. With the exception of young guys who haven't gotten a chance yet, like Gonzalez and Wagner.
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Postby Matthias » Tue May 03, 2005 12:33 am

slomo007 wrote:They're MRs for a reason....they're not that good. ;-)

If they had closer stuff, they would be closers. With the exception of young guys who haven't gotten a chance yet, like Gonzalez and Wagner.


not necessarily true. there's people who have closer stuff, but not a closer mindset. hawkins was a nightmare when he was put in the closer role for the twins; enormous head case; enormous problems. they finally gave up and put him in a set-up role and he turned everything around and put up great #s/ratios.
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Postby slomo007 » Tue May 03, 2005 12:38 am

Matthias wrote:
slomo007 wrote:They're MRs for a reason....they're not that good. ;-)

If they had closer stuff, they would be closers. With the exception of young guys who haven't gotten a chance yet, like Gonzalez and Wagner.


not necessarily true. there's people who have closer stuff, but not a closer mindset. hawkins was a nightmare when he was put in the closer role for the twins; enormous head case; enormous problems. they finally gave up and put him in a set-up role and he turned everything around and put up great #s/ratios.


Yeah, forgot about that. Regardless, MRs are in their roles for a reason...and there are VERY few who don't have the mindset. Hawkins, Riske, Herges and maybe one or two more active ones are all I can think of.
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Postby stepsinsc » Tue May 03, 2005 12:40 am

Where's Betancourt on the MR radar? Worth a spot? (12 team, 5x5 H2H)
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Postby KolbSaves » Tue May 03, 2005 12:48 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Anybody that is evaluating a strategy or a player after one month is NUTS, NUTS, NUTS.


Yet how many of us have 10-20 adds/drops already? The start of a season is important to consider when you draft. That's why high risk/high reward players are good to target instead of (supposedly) steady but average players.
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