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too many players from one team??

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Postby stumpak » Mon May 02, 2005 2:58 pm

I think it does matter in roto in terms of position players and SPs. It increases your expsosure to unforeseen evetns like injuries. Two examples:

You have Mora, Sosa and Roberts. Tejada breaks his leg. The R/RBI production of all three of those guys will be diminshed and you will probably some dip in HR and BA as well, as less total offense means a few less ABs and no Tejada will create more opportunities for pitching around the remaining O's heavy hitters.

You have Oswalt, Clemens and Pettite. Lidge blows out his arm and the Astros are stuck with a bunch of scrubs who can't finish off games. Your three SPs lose wins that you would have expected to be there with Lidge and are probably forced to pitch an extra inning in games every now again to hedge against the bullpen blowing leads, and we know that pitchers almost always have a higher (and sometimes much higher) WHIP and ERA for every inning after 6 or 7.

The point is that in both of these situations you would not have been as exposed to the unforseen event. It is not really something that should be a huge consideration, but it is sort of akin to the reason why people diversify their stock portfolio by industry sector as opposed to disversifying within a sector, i.e. own a telecom company, a tobacco company, and aerospace company and an IT company as opposed to four telecoms.
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Postby AcidRock23 » Mon May 02, 2005 3:34 pm

I lost in the H2H playoffs a couple of years ago w/ too many Red Sox when they went to the west coast and left their bats at Fenway.

That being said, I'd be leery of doing that deal as I am thinking Matsui is going to be a very good guy to have on one's team...
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Postby MaybeNextYear » Mon May 02, 2005 4:24 pm

diversification diminishes risk without reducing returns.
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Postby soxfan364 » Mon May 02, 2005 4:47 pm

I'm all for diversification, esp, in a H2H format. A weeklong slump could really hurt you.
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Postby Matthias » Mon May 02, 2005 5:02 pm

MaybeNextYear wrote:diversification diminishes risk without reducing returns.


maybe that is supposed to make sense, but.... no. risk and return are symmetric. if you diminish your risk, you diminish your potential return. they're just the opposite sides of a variance from a mean. if you think you can reduce one, but not the other, well, you're just nuts.

how it ties into the discussion is that, as others have said, if you're looking at a small sample size (e.g. a weekly H2H format) if you double or triple up on a lineup, you're going to have great days where the team scores 12 runs and you're getting credit for both the rbi and the run scored, but also have the days of the 1-hitter misery. i would say drafting teammates off of the yankees or red sox, probably pretty good. they may have their quiet days, but their outbursts will be more frequent. anyone else, i would be hesitant.
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Postby Simulacrum » Mon May 02, 2005 5:02 pm

MaybeNextYear wrote:diversification diminishes risk without reducing returns.


Thanks, Professor ;-)
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Postby stumpak » Mon May 02, 2005 5:24 pm

Saying that risk and return are symetric is irrefutably wrongheaded.
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Postby Matthias » Mon May 02, 2005 7:23 pm

stumpak wrote:Saying that risk and return are symetric is irrefutably wrongheaded.


only to those who don't know what they're talking about. risk is just another term for variance or standard deviation from a mean expected production. there is a downside possible variance (risk) and there is a positive possible variance (reward). to de-link the two is to be completely blind. when you talk about diversifying your risk amongst different industry sectors, you're also implicitly reducing your upside potential. if you have money invested in suntan lotion, but then you diversify to umbrellas, you're lessening your swings both ways. if it turned out to be a hot and sunny summer, you would've made more money sticking with your suntan lotion. but now you're covered whether it's hot and sunny or cold and wet.

if you load up on 3-4 players from one team, and you bet wrong, and they go in the tank, you're going to be really hurting. but when they're scoring runs and you're getting the rbis & runs in the same at bat, you're gaining a higher reward than if you just had 1 of them.

it may be wise to diversify your risk; but it also caps your upside by the same logic.
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