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Postby MaybeNextYear » Mon May 02, 2005 3:38 pm

After 1 month it doesn't have tremendous value. With VORP and its fantasy value, the major caveat is that stolen basens are very valuable in a 5x5 league while VORP will give them very little value.
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Postby looptid » Mon May 02, 2005 4:19 pm

klvrdude wrote:I just went to the link looptid provided and it has Wilkerson with a VORP value of 11.5, Edmonds @ 8.8 and Beltran @ 6.6. Am I going to avoid Beltran b/c he doesn't have the highest VORP? I dont' think so. Am I going to out and run to get Wilkerson b/c he has the highest VORP? I don't think so (b/c I already have him ;)


It's May second, and those numbers represent what players have done so far this season. VORP evaluates how valuable players have been to their teams. Even from a fantasy standpoint Wilkerson has been better so far this season than Beltran, he's got a 10 point edge in batting, 24 point edge in on-base, and a 80 point edge in slugging (he even has one more stolen base than Beltran). I'd say VORP is right in line with how each player has performed so far this season. I don't think anyone extrapolates the month of April under any evaluation system to predict the other five months of the season, and I don't see why you would do so for VORP.

From a pure fantasy standpoint, I don't think VORP is going to give the proper weight to fantasy categories. In a five-by-five league stolen bases are a fifth of offense. The number of actual runs stolen bases contribute is nowhere near that important in real baseball.

It will give you a great idea of who the best offensive players in the major leagues are, and that can certainly point out good hitters that might get overlooked for things like low RBI or Runs totals, but the best fantasy players aren't necessarily the best in real life. Find me a fantasy league last season where Podsednik and Davanon were of nearly equal value, even though they were in real life.
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Postby klvrdude » Mon May 02, 2005 4:38 pm

looptid wrote:those numbers represent what players have done so far this season. VORP evaluates how valuable players have been to their teams.


That's kinda my point.

For example if Team A scores an average of 2 runs a game. And let's say one player on Team A is typically responsible for driving in one of those runs and possibly scoring one those runs.

Then there is Team B who typically score 10 runs a game. And let's say that there is one player on Team B who drives in an average of two runs a game and scores around one run a game.

Assuming the same BA and SB totals, the stud player on Team A is more "valuable" to his team and probably has a higher VORP, no? But in a fantasy sense, the player on Team B is probably the better fantasy player.

I don't know the exact formula for VORP (b/c I'm too lazy to look it up), but from what I understand, I don't think its a great tool for fantasy baseball

looptid wrote:Find me a fantasy league last season where Podsednik and Davanon were of nearly equal value, even though they were in real life.


I don't get it. Did they have similar VORP's?
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Postby AcidRock23 » Mon May 02, 2005 4:59 pm

Great thread, I don't have all that much to add to it other than that I do think that VORP has some use in comparing players to arrive at values that can translate decently between hitters and pitchers.
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Postby looptid » Mon May 02, 2005 6:01 pm

klvrdude wrote:That's kinda my point.

For example if Team A scores an average of 2 runs a game. And let's say one player on Team A is typically responsible for driving in one of those runs and possibly scoring one those runs.

Then there is Team B who typically score 10 runs a game. And let's say that there is one player on Team B who drives in an average of two runs a game and scores around one run a game.

Assuming the same BA and SB totals, the stud player on Team A is more "valuable" to his team and probably has a higher VORP, no? But in a fantasy sense, the player on Team B is probably the better fantasy player.


No, VORP completely ignores things like R and RBIs, as those are dependent on a players surrounding line-up. And the only team adjustment made for VORP is based on playing time, so that it isn't just an average. It has nothing to do with the strength of a player's line-up, and represents which players are the most productive offensively. If a player had the same number of singles, doubles, triples, homeruns, walks, hit by pitches, strike-outs, sacrifices, grounded into double plays, stolen bases, caught stealing, ect., played the same position in the same league, and had the same percentage of his teams plate apperances as another player, they would have the same VORP, regarless of which team had the better supporting cast.

klvrdude wrote:
looptid wrote:Find me a fantasy league last season where Podsednik and Davanon were of nearly equal value, even though they were in real life.


I don't get it. Did they have similar VORP's?


Yup, 19.4 each. But Podsednik's 70 steals make him a lot more valuable than what Davanon would have contributed to a fantasy squad last season.
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