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VORPS

Postby Senor Smoke » Mon May 02, 2005 12:03 pm

Can someone explain this stat to me?

Where is it beneficial to know this stat?
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Postby looptid » Mon May 02, 2005 12:14 pm

Value Over Replacement Player

It uses the runs created model to start with, looking at the whole of a players offensive contributions (each individual event such as walk, hit, sacrifice, strikeout, caught stealing, hit by pitch, triple, ect.), positive and negative, to determine how many runs a player was worth to his team at the plate.

Then, a baseline is created to approximate the kind of scrub that could be called up from the minors, or grabbed as a free agent or off waivers, the kind of player that is available to all major league teams at any given time.

Those baselines are made for each position, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, and RF, in each league, so there is a different baseline for AL 2B than there is for NL 2B.

Then, you subtract the baseline at a player's position from their runs created total.

What you are left with is the number of runs, offensively, a player is worth to his team, beyond what a scrub replacement would contribute if given the same percentage of a team's plate apperances.

For pitchers, component ERA is used instead of the runs created model but the process is the same.
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Postby looptid » Mon May 02, 2005 12:17 pm

Like right now, the scorching hot Derek Lee has been worth 24.5 more runs than if the Cubs had let some AAA slug play first and take all of Lee's plate apperances this season.
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Postby reiser » Mon May 02, 2005 1:25 pm

looptid wrote:What you are left with is the number of runs, offensively, a player is worth to his team, beyond what a scrub replacement would contribute if given the same percentage of a team's plate apperances.


have you found it to be useful fantasy-wise?
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Postby Steve Eckstut » Mon May 02, 2005 1:27 pm

reiser wrote:
looptid wrote:What you are left with is the number of runs, offensively, a player is worth to his team, beyond what a scrub replacement would contribute if given the same percentage of a team's plate apperances.


have you found it to be useful fantasy-wise?


Yes. It's why taking Tejada 1st round in my points league (~3.5 last year, Guillen was second at 3.2) would be better than taking Beltre (3.8 when there's like 5 guys at 3.6-3.7)
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Postby Senor Smoke » Mon May 02, 2005 1:48 pm

How is the baseline determined? Does ESPN or anyone have VORPS as a stat?
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Postby looptid » Mon May 02, 2005 2:06 pm

The baseline is kind of arbitrary, something like 70 points below positional league average OPS.

Baseball Prospectus has VORP updated throughout the season:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/
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Postby klvrdude » Mon May 02, 2005 2:47 pm

Steve Eckstut wrote:
reiser wrote:
looptid wrote:What you are left with is the number of runs, offensively, a player is worth to his team, beyond what a scrub replacement would contribute if given the same percentage of a team's plate apperances.


have you found it to be useful fantasy-wise?


Yes. It's why taking Tejada 1st round in my points league (~3.5 last year, Guillen was second at 3.2) would be better than taking Beltre (3.8 when there's like 5 guys at 3.6-3.7)


I don't see the fantasy value other than job security (i.e. consistant AB's). I just went to the link looptid provided and it has Wilkerson with a VORP value of 11.5, Edmonds @ 8.8 and Beltran @ 6.6. Am I going to avoid Beltran b/c he doesn't have the highest VORP? I dont' think so. Am I going to out and run to get Wilkerson b/c he has the highest VORP? I don't think so (b/c I already have him ;) )

I can see the real life value VORP has to baseball GM's, but I think its value doesn't translate very well into the fantasy baseball arena.
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Postby AT » Mon May 02, 2005 3:37 pm

I love this baseball prospectus stuff and there is some informative value for it, but damn I wish these lists were sortable by categories...
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Postby DK » Mon May 02, 2005 3:38 pm

klvrdude wrote:
Steve Eckstut wrote:
reiser wrote:
looptid wrote:What you are left with is the number of runs, offensively, a player is worth to his team, beyond what a scrub replacement would contribute if given the same percentage of a team's plate apperances.


have you found it to be useful fantasy-wise?


Yes. It's why taking Tejada 1st round in my points league (~3.5 last year, Guillen was second at 3.2) would be better than taking Beltre (3.8 when there's like 5 guys at 3.6-3.7)


I don't see the fantasy value other than job security (i.e. consistant AB's). I just went to the link looptid provided and it has Wilkerson with a VORP value of 11.5, Edmonds @ 8.8 and Beltran @ 6.6. Am I going to avoid Beltran b/c he doesn't have the highest VORP? I dont' think so. Am I going to out and run to get Wilkerson b/c he has the highest VORP? I don't think so (b/c I already have him ;) )

I can see the real life value VORP has to baseball GM's, but I think its value doesn't translate very well into the fantasy baseball arena.


Beltran had a 70.5 VORP last year. Only Edmonds was ahead of him there.

It's definitely beneficial but don't trust your whole season on it.
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