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Better Value: Burnitz or Dunn?

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Postby slomo007 » Mon May 02, 2005 1:55 am

Cooner wrote:
thehat wrote:If Dunn hits .280 with 40 HR and Burnitz hits .250 with 30 HR, which player has the most value. Obviously, it would be Dunn if draft positioning is left out of the equation. But if they record those numbers and Dunn was a 4th rounder while Burnitz was an 18th, then Burnitz would be the superior value.


Frankly, like mentioned above, i think Burnitz's average has him sleeping in the Replacement Player Pool with negative value for a 5x5 roto. Negative value guys have NO value, independent of when you draft them- whenever you take them, they're still hurting your team. So I'd rather have Dunn in the 4th than Burnitz, ever.


Agreed, well said. ;-D
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Postby reznorsboy » Mon May 02, 2005 3:35 am

Dunn's Avg is just as bad as Burnitz!! He may hit a few more homers!! Why is everyone high on Dunn after one good year in which he led the league in K's
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Postby bselig » Mon May 02, 2005 3:43 am

reznorsboy wrote:Dunn's Avg is just as bad as Burnitz!! He may hit a few more homers!! Why is everyone high on Dunn after one good year in which he led the league in K's


I was thinking along the same lines. Dunn's career average is lower than JB's. If JB has "negative value" then where does that leave Dunn? I understand Dunn is a young player with much more potential, of course, but there's a definite chance he could tank a team's average just like Burnitz could. "Negative value" in the 18th round sounds like a substantially more tolerable loss to a team than "negative value" in the third or fourth round. So even if their averages give them "negative value," Burnitz is still probably more valuable.
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Postby Laean » Mon May 02, 2005 3:56 am

by the 18th round, there's what, randy winn left? i don't think a .250 avg is so bad that randy winn would have more value than a 30 90 guy.

besides, if you took burnitz in 18th round, you must have gotten good hitters who can make up for burnitz's deficiencies, or good pitching that would balance out your crappy hitting. otherwise, it's more your fault you didn't draft well than "burnitz at round 18 still isn't good value"

i see it like this:

dunn (4th) + winn (18th) < edmonds (4th) + burnitz (18th)
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Postby quicksilver8 » Mon May 02, 2005 8:16 am

At the end of the year I think Dunn will provide better value because I'm a non-believer in Burnitz. Ithink Burnitz's stats will take a steep decline when pitchers realize they don't have to throw this guy strikes to get him out.
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Postby slomo007 » Mon May 02, 2005 11:45 am

bselig wrote:
reznorsboy wrote:Dunn's Avg is just as bad as Burnitz!! He may hit a few more homers!! Why is everyone high on Dunn after one good year in which he led the league in K's


I was thinking along the same lines. Dunn's career average is lower than JB's. If JB has "negative value" then where does that leave Dunn? I understand Dunn is a young player with much more potential, of course, but there's a definite chance he could tank a team's average just like Burnitz could. "Negative value" in the 18th round sounds like a substantially more tolerable loss to a team than "negative value" in the third or fourth round. So even if their averages give them "negative value," Burnitz is still probably more valuable.


Burnitz hit a whopping .244 outside of Colorado last year. I expect him to hit around .250 in Chicago.

You are looking WAY too much at career stats and not nearly enough at recent stats. It's great to look at career stats when the two players in question are approximately the same age, but Dunn is 25 and Burnitz is 36. Comparing Burnitz's career stats to Dunn's career stats really can't be done, as you're including Burnitz's "prime" years (and I use that term loosely) while Dunn hasn't even reached his prime years yet.

Dunn should improve slightly on last year's BA (.266), while Burnitz should regress significantly from last year's (.283) due to the park effects and age/injury concerns. Prior to Coors, he had a .250 career batting average (yes, I actually calculated it). That is fully what I expect him to repeat.

To top it off, I expect Dunn to hit at least 8-10 more HRs than Burnitz as well, and he's much less of an injury risk.

There really is no comparison, and there is no way Burnitz would be on any of my teams unless he signs with Colorado again.
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Re: Better Value: Burnitz or Dunn?

Postby klvrdude » Mon May 02, 2005 1:32 pm

Bobblehead wrote:Just before the season started I made the suggestion that Jeremy Burnitz was a better value than Adam Dunn. I was called crazy by everyone who responded here at the Cafe.

Now that April has ended here are their stats for the first month of the season:

Burnitz .299 15 R 5 HR 17 RBI 2 SB
Dunn .292 12 R 6 HR 15 RBI 1 SB

Both are playing well but Dunn went about round 4 and Burnitz was had about round 18 in my 3 12 team drafts.


If you want to talk "value" what about Dmitri Young? After APR his #'s are:
Young .306 17 R 5 HR 17 RBI 1 SB

Young was taken on 25+ picks later in ESPN live drafts. Things that make you go "hmmmm".
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Postby jimmyrad » Mon May 02, 2005 5:09 pm

quicksilver8 wrote:At the end of the year I think Dunn will provide better value because I'm a non-believer in Burnitz. Ithink Burnitz's stats will take a steep decline when pitchers realize they don't have to throw this guy strikes to get him out.

He's not a rookie. They definitely already know this.

I expect JB to keep up his power #'s pace while regressing a bit in avg. There's no reason to think his overall #'s will regress from last year when you know he's got a whole summer in Wrigley with the wind is blowing out.

As for a Dunn comparison:
I DO expect Dunn to keep up his avg. He hit for avg. well in the minors and I expect him to maintain a career avg. close to .280.

Dunn: 45 jacks, 105 rbi, .280
Burnitz: 35 jacks, 90 rbi, .265

4th round vs. 18th? Probably Burnitz, but he went in round 15 in my league. It's close, as far as value. 10 jacks, 15rbi, a positive influence vs. negative influence on your BA, AND eligibility at 1b and OF? I call it close to a toss up, pre-draft, when you attach picks of 4th for Dunn and say 16 or so for Burnitz.
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Postby baseballnewb » Mon May 02, 2005 11:31 pm

Burnitz: 35 jacks, 90 rbi, .265


You usually can find a 30 HR, 250 avg guy on the FA list in most 12 team leagues, think Geoff Jenkins last year, that just isn't very valuable production. The real reason to go with Dunn is he has the posibility of really breaking out this year, if he can shorten the swing with 2 strikes and post a 285 avg with 45+ HR he could put up a monster year. Burnitz on the other hand is in the age where he could easily regress, especially moving out of Colorado.
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Re: Better Value: Burnitz or Dunn?

Postby quietstorm » Mon May 02, 2005 11:53 pm

Bobblehead wrote:Just before the season started I made the suggestion that Jeremy Burnitz was a better value than Adam Dunn. I was called crazy by everyone who responded here at the Cafe.

Now that April has ended here are their stats for the first month of the season:

Burnitz .299 15 R 5 HR 17 RBI 2 SB
Dunn .292 12 R 6 HR 15 RBI 1 SB

Both are playing well but Dunn went about round 4 and Burnitz was had about round 18 in my 3 12 team drafts.

Just because Burnitz left Coors field doesn't mean his hitting will go down. The friendly confines of Wrigley Field are not a bad place to hit either.

And Ronnie Belliard will be a better value than Jeff Kent.

Right.
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