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Better Value: Burnitz or Dunn?

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Better Value: Burnitz or Dunn?

Postby Bobblehead » Sun May 01, 2005 7:58 pm

Just before the season started I made the suggestion that Jeremy Burnitz was a better value than Adam Dunn. I was called crazy by everyone who responded here at the Cafe.

Now that April has ended here are their stats for the first month of the season:

Burnitz .299 15 R 5 HR 17 RBI 2 SB
Dunn .292 12 R 6 HR 15 RBI 1 SB

Both are playing well but Dunn went about round 4 and Burnitz was had about round 18 in my 3 12 team drafts.

Just because Burnitz left Coors field doesn't mean his hitting will go down. The friendly confines of Wrigley Field are not a bad place to hit either.
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Postby nikku88 » Sun May 01, 2005 9:03 pm

We'll see how close they are after the Season.
One month does not convince me.
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Postby jpbusta » Sun May 01, 2005 9:05 pm

Dunn. :-)
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R2C2.
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Postby thehat » Sun May 01, 2005 9:35 pm

nikku88 wrote:We'll see how close they are after the Season.
One month does not convince me.


You're missing the point. The question wasn't about which guy is a better player, it's about which one would have more value based on their respective average draft positions. We'll see how it ends up, but right now it's a blowout for Burnitz as an 18th rounder as opposed to Dunn as a fourth rounder.
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Postby AznHisoka » Sun May 01, 2005 9:45 pm

I predict Burnitz will have the following numbers by the end of 2005:

.229, 23 hrs, 70 rbis, and 82 runs.

Dunn will have:
.258, 42 hrs, 100 rbis and 109 runs.

Dunn wins, by far.
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Postby bselig » Sun May 01, 2005 9:55 pm

I responded to this guy's initial post favorably, but I'm still worried about Burnitz's average...


23 homers for Burnitz is a pretty absurd prediction. The guy has hit over thirty homers six out of his past seven years in the league...I have no idea why anyone would anticipate him to dropoff that much...
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Postby pokerplaya » Sun May 01, 2005 10:09 pm

bselig wrote:I responded to this guy's initial post favorably, but I'm still worried about Burnitz's average...


23 homers for Burnitz is a pretty absurd prediction. The guy has hit over thirty homers six out of his past seven years in the league...I have no idea why anyone would anticipate him to dropoff that much...


Yeah, I agree.

I see it as closer to:

Burnitz .240 32hrs 95rbis 80runs
Dunn .260 40hrs 105rbis 85runs

So, while I do see Dunn finishing quite a bit higher, Burnitz might be a better value. That said, with Burnitz likely low average, he is going to have negative value in a roto league. He really only is servicable in H2H leagues or only the very deepest roto leagues.
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Postby thehat » Sun May 01, 2005 10:10 pm

If Dunn hits .280 with 40 HR and Burnitz hits .250 with 30 HR, which player has the most value. Obviously, it would be Dunn if draft positioning is left out of the equation. But if they record those numbers and Dunn was a 4th rounder while Burnitz was an 18th, then Burnitz would be the superior value.
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Postby Dmville » Sun May 01, 2005 11:23 pm

If I'd have seen your post pre-season, I would have responded Burnitz baby. He was good before Coors and will be good after Coors. Won't be .300, but wont be below .250 either and will put up comparable power #'s.
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Postby Cooner » Mon May 02, 2005 1:47 am

thehat wrote:If Dunn hits .280 with 40 HR and Burnitz hits .250 with 30 HR, which player has the most value. Obviously, it would be Dunn if draft positioning is left out of the equation. But if they record those numbers and Dunn was a 4th rounder while Burnitz was an 18th, then Burnitz would be the superior value.


Frankly, like mentioned above, i think Burnitz's average has him sleeping in the Replacement Player Pool with negative value for a 5x5 roto. Negative value guys have NO value, independent of when you draft them- whenever you take them, they're still hurting your team. So I'd rather have Dunn in the 4th than Burnitz, ever.
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