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Julio on the Move?

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Postby Yoda » Fri Apr 29, 2005 2:40 pm

stumpak wrote:So now the Orioles finally figure out that they need a solid front line starter?

As for Julio, he is still crap as a closer in my opinion. With the exception of his rookie year he has not put up the sort of ratios that one would associate with even a middle of the road closer, much less an elite one. This goes back to his minor league career, where his numbers likewise did nothing to impress. The guys ceiling is as a journeyman closer, no team with serious aspirations of contending for a pennant would be happy with him as a closer unless they are forced to turn to a second-choice/fill-in type of guy (i.e., the Giants and Cubs right now). The Orioles, no chronic playoff contender in recent years, have a such a low opinion of him that they gave his job to a 100% unproven guy. This does not happend to "proven" closers.


I wouldn't say Ryan was unproven. He closed a bit at the end of 04 and he was great in ST.
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Postby klvrdude » Fri Apr 29, 2005 2:44 pm

thehat wrote:The story said "top of the line starting pitcher" so I would think that rules out the Giants.


I completely agree.

Also dont' forget what Giants GM Sabean said:
"This time of year the only thing you can do is try to address it internally."

(Fanball)

and Armando is on year 1 of 3 from his new contract.
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Postby SouthBronxBombers » Fri Apr 29, 2005 3:27 pm

If this is what they want to try to get, it seems the Cubs would be the only real fit. They have the starting pitching to spare, if they are willing to gamble on the health of Prior and Wood, and deal Zambrano, if that would be enough to get him.
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Postby slomo007 » Fri Apr 29, 2005 3:31 pm

SouthBronxBombers wrote:If this is what they want to try to get, it seems the Cubs would be the only real fit. They have the starting pitching to spare, if they are willing to gamble on the health of Prior and Wood, and deal Zambrano, if that would be enough to get him.


Zambrano for Julio?

That would border on the Kazmir/Zambrano swap. :-P
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Postby SouthBronxBombers » Fri Apr 29, 2005 3:36 pm

No, packaging him with Bedard. I wouldn't make the deal, but if you're the Cubs and think Julio can be the closer they need, they might do it. Their starting pitching will still be fine, with Prior, Wood and Maddux at the top of the rotation.
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Postby Havok1517 » Fri Apr 29, 2005 3:38 pm

I say the Cubs will try and trade Dubious and some other players in a package. WHERE IS ANGEL GUZMAN????? (I know the minors)
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Postby slomo007 » Fri Apr 29, 2005 3:38 pm

SouthBronxBombers wrote:No, packaging him with Bedard. I wouldn't make the deal, but if you're the Cubs and think Julio can be the closer they need, they might do it. Their starting pitching will still be fine, with Prior, Wood and Maddux at the top of the rotation.


Oh ok, that's a little better I guess. I still wouldn't even consider it though. Zambrano is a potential ace and Bedard is basically a 5th starter until he proves otherwise (which he might do). Julio is not really that good, I don't get the obsession with this guy.

The Cubs just need Borowski to come back, heck, I'd say he's better than Julio.
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Postby thehat » Fri Apr 29, 2005 7:11 pm

Yoda wrote:
thehat wrote:Julio is a good reliever, but his type are a lot more plentiful than "top of the line starting pitchers" and I feel secure in stating that it will take more than Julio and Cabrera/Bedard to land one.

You never know what may happen in late July when soon to be FA's hit the market from teams out of contention, but as I see it, the Giants aren't a candidate to pry Julio from the Orioles.


The thread was about Julio PLUS another young pitcher for a top of the line starter. Julio is a 26 year old with 83 career saves with 19 blown saves. That's pretty valuable considering he's only making 2.5M.

Also, his control was progressively getting worse since his rookie season. He's not walking nearly as much this season and you can bet that he will be immensely successful if he keeps this trend.

Tough to say what the Gints are going to do. Someone may step up and run with the job but based on what we know, no one on their roster currently has the ability to do this. Maybe one of their callups can do it but either way, they have to all but rule out Benitez for at least the regular season. I never believe what GM's say either. There are no guarantees in baseball since things change by the minute. If their pen totally sucks and they want to stay competetive, why wouldn't they trade for a closer?


I know that, Yoda...my point is that Julio plus a young arm won't net Baltimore a top of the line starter. Why would anyone make that deal? If they were also to include one of their talented hitting prospects (Markakis?) then MAYBE they get a bite around the deadline from someone with a high end FA-to-be, but that's still a long shot.

As for not believing what GM's say, I don't disagree. They aren't about to tell a reporter what they have in mind, as that would be just plain dumb. But the fact is that the Giants have little to offer for a closer. They aren't going to trade Matt Cain, and that's who everyone wants.
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Postby RawTalent » Fri Apr 29, 2005 7:50 pm

stumpak wrote:So now the Orioles finally figure out that they need a solid front line starter?

As for Julio, he is still crap as a closer in my opinion. With the exception of his rookie year he has not put up the sort of ratios that one would associate with even a middle of the road closer, much less an elite one. This goes back to his minor league career, where his numbers likewise did nothing to impress. The guys ceiling is as a journeyman closer, no team with serious aspirations of contending for a pennant would be happy with him as a closer unless they are forced to turn to a second-choice/fill-in type of guy (i.e., the Giants and Cubs right now). The Orioles, no chronic playoff contender in recent years, have a such a low opinion of him that they gave his job to a 100% unproven guy. This does not happend to "proven" closers.


And that guy is currently putting up an ERA of 0.77 and a WHIP of 0.69. Now OBVIOUSLY, that's a small sample size, but it's not like Julio's crap. He's young and a protopyical closer. B.J. Ryan had ridiculous ratios last year, and that, it seems to me, was the reason he won over the closer's role.
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