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Middle Relievers Killing Me

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Postby bobby » Wed Apr 27, 2005 7:00 pm

I had Otsuka, Gonzo, and Tom Gordon to start the year. Those guys didn't help me at all. Otsuka is the only guy I'm holding on to right now. Gonzo and Tom Gordon have been replaced by Street and Reitsma.
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Postby slomo007 » Wed Apr 27, 2005 7:03 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Anyone who is judging a player OR a strategy based upon 20 games in April needs a little reality check.


How about this strategy instead:

Don't draft ANY middle relievers...draft true sleepers who could come up big.

As the sleepers either perform or don't, begin dropping them for the closer candidates who emerge (like Tavarez, Brazoban, etc). As the year settles down, the closing situations tend to settle down for the most part as well. Then it's fine to grab the MRs who will help your ratios. Only then, you're getting them for free, and you may have used that roster spot on a much more deserving player (either the sleeper you drafted, or the new closer). That's how I personally choose to run all of my teams.
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Postby DK » Wed Apr 27, 2005 7:21 pm

I have a foolproof strategy. Get more points than all the other teams. Never fails. ;D
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Postby bleach168 » Wed Apr 27, 2005 8:14 pm

All good MRs like Lidge, K-Rod, and Mota inevitably end up as closers. This makes finding good MRs 10x tougher since you're working with a fresh crop of players with little to no history.
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Postby TownDrunk » Wed Apr 27, 2005 8:33 pm

Any opinions on Donnelly? I'm in a holds league, and I desperately could use some. Torres has been a dissapointment, and I recently picked up Villone off waivers.

Can Donnelly turn it around? :-?
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Apr 27, 2005 9:04 pm

slomo007 wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Anyone who is judging a player OR a strategy based upon 20 games in April needs a little reality check.


How about this strategy instead:

Don't draft ANY middle relievers...draft true sleepers who could come up big.

As the sleepers either perform or don't, begin dropping them for the closer candidates who emerge (like Tavarez, Brazoban, etc). As the year settles down, the closing situations tend to settle down for the most part as well. Then it's fine to grab the MRs who will help your ratios. Only then, you're getting them for free, and you may have used that roster spot on a much more deserving player (either the sleeper you drafted, or the new closer). That's how I personally choose to run all of my teams.


Could work, just as this one could.

Draft good middle relievers based upon their career rather than their last year numbers. Forget about trying to target who might get holds or saves, and simply draft good pitchers who pitch in non-starting and closing roles. Don't panic and dump them because they have a bad month. Wait it out and recognize that one or two bad outings in April aren't going to determine your ERA or WHIP.

A good MR has more value than some hoped for "sleeper" in the middle and late rounds, unless you myopically think the only value is in their closer potential.
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Postby Tavish » Wed Apr 27, 2005 9:15 pm

MR can carry a staff, some of its luck some is going with those who are in great situations. Right now MR have gotten almost half of my team's wins, a couple of saves, and helped hold down Zito's ERA problem. There are no guarentees with MR, but in most cases they are very easy to drop and replace with the next hottest thing.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Apr 27, 2005 10:50 pm

I think the problem is that people think middle reliever performance is unstable when it's not. MR are not more or less unstable than other pitchers. They just pitch fewer innings. So, their year to year numbers vary more because they are drawn from a smaller sample. The solution is not "don't choose MR", it's "don't choose pitchers based on small samples." Just look for a bigger sample (like 3 year totals for a typical MR) and make your decision based on that, rather than whether a player is labeled a starter, MR, or closer.
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Postby NY Yankees Fan 2004 » Wed Apr 27, 2005 11:11 pm

I have been using the MR strategy without holds in my league. I did not draft a single MR pitcher. Picked them up off the FA list. I have Rincon and Gonzo. I had Calero and Otuska, but I dropped them both. I might add Calero again when he is healthy. Even though Gonzo hasnt been that great I am keeping him, cause I like his stuff and he has great potential. As for Otsuka, he has looked like crap this year. I remember at the end of last year he wasnt even that great. He was dominant when he first came to that league. He has that funky delievery, which I think lead to his success last year. Hitters have probably figured him out.
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Postby wrveres » Thu Apr 28, 2005 2:09 am

The Padres announcers found out Otsukas problem the last time out and it should be interesting to see how he responds. Apparently, he was using the same pitch to start off every batter, and as we all know it does not take advanced scouts long to pick up on that. They noticed this because every single batter was coming up to the plate first pitch swinging, even the people that are known as overly patient.

As far as the middle reliever strategy...
Yeah, I never draft the guys ... there is always plenty of guys available.
If your league counts holds, I would bet dollars to donuts that guys like Bruney and Koplove are readily available on the wire.
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