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Best "sell high" guy in the game right now might be...

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Best "sell high" guy in the game right now might be...

Postby thehat » Wed Apr 27, 2005 3:50 am

Danny Graves.

Obviously, this applies only to those who have other closers on their current roster. But if you do, his marketability is NEVER going to be higher than it is right now!

First of all, Graves has been extremely fortunate to date. He's got a 100% save conversion rate, but all of his peripheral numbers are lousy. He has an established tendency to fade, and that could be accelerated in that he's more of a health risk than he used to be. Plus, there's little question, at least IMO, that Ryan Wagner is the closer in waiting for Cincy and he's been nothing short of sensational this season.

The kicker is injury/ineffectiveness epidemic that is afflicting so many closers right now. Owners in virtually every league of reasonable size are frantically searching for saves.

I'm convinced that offering Graves up right now will get you more in return than at any other time, past or present. Now if only I actually owned him in any of my four leagues...
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Postby Mercer Boy » Wed Apr 27, 2005 3:57 am

I'm sorry, but I would not trade someone to get Graves no matter if he had 50 saves already. His ERA and WHIP kill your team. You have to have some pretty dominant starters to be able to get away with having him, or you'll lose 2 cats each week.

Right now he's getting a 9 ERA and/or 2-3 WHIP each time out...sure it's good for the saves, but why try to improve one stat when you kill two? :-? :-/
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Postby thehat » Wed Apr 27, 2005 4:10 am

Mercer Boy wrote:I'm sorry, but I would not trade someone to get Graves no matter if he had 50 saves already. His ERA and WHIP kill your team. You have to have some pretty dominant starters to be able to get away with having him, or you'll lose 2 cats each week.

Right now he's getting a 9 ERA and/or 2-3 WHIP each time out...sure it's good for the saves, but why try to improve one stat when you kill two? :-? :-/


You missed the point entirely. The flaws you list are right on target, he's not very good. And that's why you sell, sell, sell NOW. All you have to do to see how saves are coveted is take a quick scan of the threads here at the Cafe. (There was a run on Chad Fox, for crying out loud) Once the elite guys either get on track or return from injury, the value of a guy like Graves plummets. And that's why you move him now, because owners who overvalue saves (and there are TONS of them) will overpay for Graves.
Last edited by thehat on Wed Apr 27, 2005 4:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby thehat » Wed Apr 27, 2005 4:13 am

dupe post...sorry.
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Postby Laean » Wed Apr 27, 2005 4:57 am

i understand your logic, but i also think the cat's out of the bag that what you get with graves. and everyone knows injured closers aren't gone for the season or anything.

hence, you won't be able to sell graves high.
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Postby Bukoski77 » Wed Apr 27, 2005 5:49 am

Laean wrote:i understand your logic, but i also think the cat's out of the bag that what you get with graves. and everyone knows injured closers aren't gone for the season or anything.

hence, you won't be able to sell graves high.


i have to agree with what you said. Last year Graves was on track for a record setting saves season. After the all-star break it was all up hill.

Graves wont keep his save pace up. If you can get a good bargain on him then sell now.

My personel Sell High candidate is Drrik Lee 1B Cubs.
He is a flashy streak hitter. He started the year red hott but will not keep this up all year. If you can get top 4-5 1B trade value then sell him now.
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Postby Mercer Boy » Wed Apr 27, 2005 5:52 am

Heh, OK...yeah, I was taking it from the angle of the "educated" buyer. :-)

Sure, if you can get someone who really wants saves to bite on him, more power to you. ;-D

Now, I've never played fantasy baseball before...so this may not make sense, but here goes. I'd think someone like Lyon would be a better sell high (if you really want to trade) - there's really no track record with him, and the D-Backs did lose a lot of games last year. What if they all of a sudden revert to their previous suckiness and/or Lyon starts getting wasted on his save opps? The guy has 10 saves right now and has only given up 1 or 2 runs in 11 appearances. He's about as high as you can get right now.
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Postby George_Foreman » Wed Apr 27, 2005 8:29 am

well, the thing with lyon is that you don't really know what you're going to get with him this year. he could turn out to have 40 saves or he could get blown out the next time out, valverde comes back and claims the role, etc.

with graves, you do know what you're going to get, and "what you get" with graves is saves with mediocre periferals. the thing is, with so many closers down or getting hit lately, it's not absurd for there to be someone in your league with all of their guys out and in desperate need of saves. this is april, the month when people panick about their team when they see themselves in the bottom of the standings. IMO, now would be the perfect time to offer an impatient owner someone like graves and try to maximize his worth.

so anyhow, trading lyon now would probably work, but it's not as clearly a win-win as trading graves will, since lyon could surprise everyone by graves won't. ;-D
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Postby The Punisher » Wed Apr 27, 2005 8:33 am

I would not wanna have Graves, hes a WHIP/ERA killer. Sure hell get you saves but you better have a top starting rotation to afford the hit your going to get in the WHIP/ERA from him
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Postby KolbSaves » Wed Apr 27, 2005 9:39 am

I don't get why people think Lyon has a tenuous hold on the closer job. Even if he does blow a couple, he already has 10 out of 11 saves converted (and the one blown one was due to an error).
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