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Must read article on mlb.com

Postby bleach168 » Fri May 16, 2003 5:53 pm

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Postby TheRock » Fri May 16, 2003 6:25 pm

wow, thanks bleach. Very interesting. Never heard anyone use pitches seen as a performance indicator but he sold it pretty good.

Good things to say about my 3 slumpers, Abreu, Burrell and Dunn. Gotta love that.
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Interesting...

Postby lifeform » Fri May 16, 2003 9:44 pm

Interesting article... but I'm not sure how they reached the conclusion based on the data provided.

The sample of hitters who saw the most pitches per AB (the Giambis) had a composite .270 BA, while the sample that saw the fewest pitches per AB (the Simons) had a .274 BA.

Somehow, that was used to make the argument that those in the first group would see a higher BA. The data seems to support the prediction that they'll walk more, hit more HRs, and score more runs... but *not* necessarily raise the BA.

(Which is not to say that guys like Abreu and Burrell *won't* raise their BA... it's just that based on the data presented, the average number of pitches a player sees per AB is not a particularly good indicator of a player's BA.)

Thanks for posting the link, though, bleach. I'm a total stats geek, so stuff that gets me thinking differently about evaluating players is always appreciated.
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Postby bleach168 » Fri May 16, 2003 10:09 pm

Nice observation, Lifeform. Maybe the author got batting avg and OBP confused since the OBP of the more patient hitters are in fact significantly higher.
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Postby BankRoll » Sat May 17, 2003 2:30 am

Finally, it's time to lower expectations for fellow third baseman Edgardo Alfonzo of the Giants.


I dunno about that. May stats:

14GP 53AB 6R 20H 4Dbl 3HR 12RBI 6BB 0K 1SB .377BA .433OBP .623SLG

Most of that was batting in the 7th hole so his production is down, but that won't last long:

Felipe Alou indicated that he still believes Edgardo Alfonzo will be the one to hit behind Barry Bonds for much of the year.


;-D
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