Straight out of Baseball Prospectus:
Is Patterson ever going to make progress? He shows you things that make you wonder. In 2004, it was a strikeout an inning, a walk every other inning, about half again as many home runs as you'd like, and then he missed time with a groin injury. Still, he's cheap, armed with good stuff, and might be a few adjustments away from becoming this rotation's #2 guy. PECOTA likes his profile, and we like his curveball; when that thing's really breaking, it's almost hypnotic. Breakout candidate.
PECOTA has him pegged at 15% breakout, 43% improve and 29% collapse.
Seems like they like him a lot.
[size=10]"Men are apt to mistake the strength of their feeling for the strength of their argument." [/size]