Wells was hurt last year Mussina had a fluke first half, rebounded second half Vazquez had a great first half, weird second half, jury's still out on him this year Giambi was hurt/recovering from steroids/etc last year (and for the record, he is almost droppable unless he starts showing his power this year) Zito was healthy last year
There's the big difference. There is absolutely nothing that shows he might rebound. I would probably even feel better about him if he was hurt or did not have his velocity or something. But the truth is, he does have his velocity, and he is not hurt. Hitters are crushing his pure "stuff." I think it's simple, hitters have figured him out. That's really all the analysis it takes to figure this out, and yet some people are completely blinded by the seasons he had 2-3 years ago that they think it's a sin to drop a guy who is in reality a WW pitcher. Even if he rebounds a little, I don't see all that much value in a 4.0 ERA, good K, high WHIP guy. Maybe that's just me, but it's not like it's taking all that much of a gamble by dropping him. If you can get anything of value in a trade for him....go for it. If you can't, I think he's droppable.
your 100% right.
and you prooved my point about all those guys i listed as for reasons why i believe all those guys will bounce back. lol
as far as zito goes, like i said before he isn't going to rebound to 2002 or 2003 form.
His hit rate was at 25 and 26 % in 2003 and 2002 and last year it went to the normal 30%.
Zito's K's did go back up last year. I have watched zito week end and week out his whole career and the truth is............. it is possible for him to figure it all out again one day and turn his career back into the direction of a superstar
but for right now and the last year or so, Barry Zito has been having many problems:
1. he gets behind hitters early which just kills him
2. when he dosen't have his curve working and or the umpire is not calling it for strikes the opposing hitters just chose to not swing at the curve and take it for a BALL. this leaves zito with 2 pitches a fastball and changeup giving the hitters a 50/50 chance of guessing the pitch.
3. He just always seems to make that one bad pitch at the worst time (last nite vs bret boone and the grand slam)
Now the thing is, the REST of the game from the At bat right after Boone to his final out of the night where he got a strikeout, zito was in his groove, gettin ahead of hitters, throwin his curve for strikes and just getting it done.
4. every single game zito always seems to have this 1 nightmare inning, and then the other innings he seems to be cy young zito again.
If IF IF IF IF Zito could just find a way to not have that one bad inning EVERY SINGLE game, if he could just find a way to pitch every inning like he did last night 2-6 and vs the angels last week
then barry zito could once again be a very good fantasy starting pitcher
the problem is i have been saying this for over a year now.
the talent is there, the stuff is there, he has a new catcher better then last year, he simply needs to get his head straight and get it together. but he may not ever be able to do that.
All that being said I still think Barry Zito finishes the season
14 wins
3.80 ERA
1.20 whip
170 K's
I agree with what you've said for the most part. I know it's typically the one big inning or one bad pitch with him. However, I guess where we differ is that you see that as a fluke, and I see that as normal. As you said, the hitters don't go after the curve, wait for him to walk a couple of batters trying to throw it in an inning...then, after there are men on base, he has to throw strikes...so he resorts to his fastball/change to do that....that's when the batters simply blow him out.
I haven't seen all that many A's games on TV, but I have seen a few and it seems like this is what happens during the games I've seen. I think the numbers you put up are extremely optimistic, but I agree that it's possible but very unlikely. Personally, I would rather take a chance on a youngster like Patterson or Haren being great, than taking the chance that Zito rebounds to mediocrity. I really don't think he'll be an Ace until he seriously changes something about how he pitches. Maybe he needs to add another pitch, or just do something different rather than just going out there week in and week out with the same thing.
I remember hearing many successful veteran pitchers say that they all admit to changing the way they pitch every few years. That's the secret to longevitiy in the league...but Zito (to me) comes off as the type of pitcher that tells himself that he was successful a few years ago with the curve, so why can't I be now? That's the complete wrong attitude. Try the curve for a few months, if you aren't getting success with it, figure out some other way to do it. If he can't do that, I really don't think there's any way he'll ever rebound anywhere close to where he was.
slomo007 wrote:I agree with what you've said for the most part. I know it's typically the one big inning or one bad pitch with him. However, I guess where we differ is that you see that as a fluke, and I see that as normal. As you said, the hitters don't go after the curve, wait for him to walk a couple of batters trying to throw it in an inning...then, after there are men on base, he has to throw strikes...so he resorts to his fastball/change to do that....that's when the batters simply blow him out.
I haven't seen all that many A's games on TV, but I have seen a few and it seems like this is what happens during the games I've seen. I think the numbers you put up are extremely optimistic, but I agree that it's possible but very unlikely. Personally, I would rather take a chance on a youngster like Patterson or Haren being great, than taking the chance that Zito rebounds to mediocrity. I really don't think he'll be an Ace until he seriously changes something about how he pitches. Maybe he needs to add another pitch, or just do something different rather than just going out there week in and week out with the same thing.
I remember hearing many successful veteran pitchers say that they all admit to changing the way they pitch every few years. That's the secret to longevitiy in the league...but Zito (to me) comes off as the type of pitcher that tells himself that he was successful a few years ago with the curve, so why can't I be now? That's the complete wrong attitude. Try the curve for a few months, if you aren't getting success with it, figure out some other way to do it. If he can't do that, I really don't think there's any way he'll ever rebound anywhere close to where he was.
slomo I definitely agree with you on a lot of that, and it may sound like I am trying to defend zito to the death, but I'm really not. To be perfectly honest with you I have seen almost every start he has made the last 3 years, and you know what... ITS SO GOD DAMN FRUSTRATING.
zito is like that mr. jackyl/hide guy....he has split personalites
I mean when he is getting hit around, its like who is this bum? and when I watch him throw BALL after BALL after BALL then give up a big home run, I want to throw my barry zito bobblehead against the wall. But then ALL OF THE SUDDeN he goes into cy young zito, and he cruises along making guys like Ichiro and Vlad Guerrero look like crap getting them to chase a curve ball in the dirt. And I go hey maybe this is hope for the next start and the future, maybe zito figured it out? then i go through the same routine again and again and again. and all the while i kno that he is never going to truly get back to hus cy form, and that is why I agree with you (to an extent)
he like one of those girls that you have a thing for, and she leads you on and then she dissapoints you, but then she calls you back or whatever and gives you hope that you have a future with her. Then she breaks your heart AGAIN and then AGAIN she does something to give you hope for the future, and you just fall for it again?
(this has never happen to me by the way, it has happen to my friends)
GSes wrote:he like one of those girls that you have a thing for, and she leads you on and then she dissapoints you, but then she calls you back or whatever and gives you hope that you have a future with her. Then she breaks your heart AGAIN and then AGAIN she does something to give you hope for the future, and you just fall for it again?
(this has never happen to me by the way, it has happen to my friends)
Haha, gses, it sounds like it's time to cut ties. When a girl does that, it either means she needs a b/f - not you necessarily - just a b/f because she's insecure about herself or is shallow. Or it's that she really enjoys teasing you because she really doesn't like you. Zito is the same way, people think that he needs to be on someone's team (I mean look at those Ks! ) , I am just saying that I'm not going to be that guy. Let someone else worry every time he takes the mound that your team ERA is about to be raised exponentially in the inning.
The only reason I drafted him at all in one league is because I was watching a preseason report by Gammons which was hyping him up saying he's serious this year to figure out his problems. Well, obviously not. Damn Gammons.
This conversation has taken one strange turn of events, but I must say, it's rather humorous.
GSes wrote:he like one of those girls that you have a thing for, and she leads you on and then she dissapoints you, but then she calls you back or whatever and gives you hope that you have a future with her. Then she breaks your heart AGAIN and then AGAIN she does something to give you hope for the future, and you just fall for it again?
(this has never happen to me by the way, it has happen to my friends)
Haha, gses, it sounds like it's time to cut ties. When a girl does that, it either means she needs a b/f - not you necessarily - just a b/f because she's insecure about herself or is shallow. Or it's that she really enjoys teasing you because she really doesn't like you. Zito is the same way, people think that he needs to be on someone's team (I mean look at those Ks! ) , I am just saying that I'm not going to be that guy. Let someone else worry every time he takes the mound that your team ERA is about to be raised exponentially in the inning.
The only reason I drafted him at all in one league is because I was watching a preseason report by Gammons which was hyping him up saying he's serious this year to figure out his problems. Well, obviously not. Damn Gammons.
This conversation has taken one strange turn of events, but I must say, it's rather humorous.
just trying to give frustrated zito owners some humor to go with. and vent maybe? haha
i would keep him on the bench on a 12 team league... its not going to do too much damage to just sit him. but if u have few bench spots drop his ass. i promise someone will use there high waiver priority to pick him up and u will at least get closer to #1 waiver spot
If there is anyone who still thinks that Zito is a good pitcher in your league than trade him to that person. Zito will not get it together. Actually he has it together right now. He is the 2 to 1 K to BB rate pitcher with a 4.00 + ERA that you are seeing. The Cy Young Zito was a mirage caused by hit percentage. Get what you can cause you should at most be spot starting him.
Wow, I guess all it took was one or two more bad starts for the Zito believers to abandon ship. I was badmouthing him a little while ago here and I was viewed as irrational for considering dropping him.
Looks like I'm now in the majority rather than the minority. I wonder how many times this thread will need to be bumped after each poor Zito start to remind people that he's droppable. Hopefully they will bump this rather than creating another thread...but I doubt it.
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by GSes » Thu Apr 21, 2005 10:18 pm 
