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Postby Yoda » Thu Apr 21, 2005 1:52 pm

slomo007 wrote:
Yoda wrote:
slomo007 wrote:Well I don't know if you've been one to say it...but I brought up Casey's surrounding lineup because that is the argument for many other people in this thread who feel Helton's move to Baltimore, where he'd have a good surrounding lineup, would actually help his value. That is ludicrous IMO. Again, not sure if this is how you justified it or not...I really didn't mean to turn this in to a Casey vs Helton debate...just kind of turned out that way. All I'm saying is that they would put up similar numbers if Helton moved out of Colorado, not sure who would top who, but they would be very similar.


slomo007, you are a reasonable guy. But if we are taking into account lineups and ballparks, then shouldn't we be projecting Helton's numbers based on them as well outside of COL? BAL is a pretty neutral park and you ahve to remember that every year Helton has to hit at SF, SD, LA multiple times per year, all against very competitive pitchers and in favorable pitching venues. Also, COL's lineup is anything but good and if he ends up with the O's, he would be surrounded by pretty successful hitters. So no, I can't accept taht given Helton's career road numbers and Casey's career numbers that they should be considered equal in any shape.


That is a good point about the other ballparks, but the AL east isn't exactly a hitter's haven either. I know TB and NY are not good hitters' parks. I think you can only read in to road (inter division) park affects a little bit, because there are a lot of out of division games as well.


But slomo, we are talking about 30 games out of 80 games that are played at SF, LAD and SD. That's 37.5% of his road numbers.

Last season, he played in 76 games, 27 at those three parks.
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Postby slomo007 » Thu Apr 21, 2005 1:56 pm

I think it's like 27 games or so....and he also has about 9 away games/year in Bank One Ballpark in Arizona...which is a hitters' haven.

I think we're really splitting hairs here... :-b
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Postby Yoda » Thu Apr 21, 2005 2:09 pm

slomo007 wrote:I think it's like 27 games or so....and he also has about 9 away games/year in Bank One Ballpark in Arizona...which is a hitters' haven.

I think we're really splitting hairs here... :-b


Well, if you guys are arguing that Helton's home splits are padded due to Coors effects, then you need to be consistent and look at the ball park effects of his road splits as well.

Otherwise how can you use Coors effects to argue against Helton yet not take into account the park effects of his road splits? That is VERY incosistent if you ask me. :-?
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Apr 21, 2005 2:15 pm

The parks in Casey's division are also horrible... Miller Park, PNC, Busch, and MM Park. Houston is probably the worst park for lefties. That's 4 bad parks Casey has in his division. It's not like he's had it easy.

And yeah 2 seasons isn't a huge sample size, but he still had better BA, HR, and R/RBI over the past 2 years on the road than Helton has. If you want to go back even further, say three years, Helton's stats just get even worse - .281 road BA and SLG below 500. Let's face it, he's not the same player as he was in 2001, and neither is Casey. Casey has improved a lot since then (more accurately he's simply gone back to his 99-01 stats), while Helton has declined a lot.

Regardless, I don't think Helton is going to be traded to Baltimore, so this would be all for naught anyway. The name Sean Casey is synonymous with 20 HR and a good BA, while people remember the 45+ HR .350+ that Helton had 5 and 6 years ago with the aid of Coors Field. Name recognition is basically what it comes down to.
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Postby Yoda » Thu Apr 21, 2005 2:15 pm

Dodgers, Giants and Padres all were playoff teams not b/c of their hitting but pitching in 04. Look at the park factor and tell me why we shouldn't adjust Helton's road splits if he is hitting more than 1/3 of the time at those stadiums...

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/par ... eason=2004
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Postby slomo007 » Thu Apr 21, 2005 2:17 pm

Yoda wrote:
slomo007 wrote:I think it's like 27 games or so....and he also has about 9 away games/year in Bank One Ballpark in Arizona...which is a hitters' haven.

I think we're really splitting hairs here... :-b


Well, if you guys are arguing that Helton's home splits are padded due to Coors effects, then you need to be consistent and look at the ball park effects of his road splits as well.

Otherwise how can you use Coors effects to argue against Helton yet not take into account the park effects of his road splits? That is VERY incosistent if you ask me. :-?


Away ballpark stats tend to even out for most players. Yes, Helton played in a pitchers' park division overall for the past few years, but I still can't justify upping his away game numbers based on 27 games in hitter's parks being that 9 of them off the top of my head were in Bank One Ballpark which counteracts 9 of the 27...thus making it 18 games. I'm sure I could find some more hitters' parks he played in last year if I really wanted to analyze all of that.

I really think we're starting to overanalyze.
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Postby Yoda » Thu Apr 21, 2005 2:17 pm

LBJackal wrote:The parks in Casey's division are also horrible... Miller Park, PNC, Busch, and MM Park. Houston is probably the worst park for lefties. That's 4 bad parks Casey has in his division. It's not like he's had it easy.


NOt nearly as bad as LAD, SF, SD...

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/par ... eason=2004
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Postby Yoda » Thu Apr 21, 2005 2:18 pm

slomo007 wrote:
Yoda wrote:
slomo007 wrote:I think it's like 27 games or so....and he also has about 9 away games/year in Bank One Ballpark in Arizona...which is a hitters' haven.

I think we're really splitting hairs here... :-b


Well, if you guys are arguing that Helton's home splits are padded due to Coors effects, then you need to be consistent and look at the ball park effects of his road splits as well.

Otherwise how can you use Coors effects to argue against Helton yet not take into account the park effects of his road splits? That is VERY incosistent if you ask me. :-?


Away ballpark stats tend to even out for most players. Yes, Helton played in a pitchers' park division overall for the past few years, but I still can't justify upping his away game numbers based on 27 games in hitter's parks being that 9 of them off the top of my head were in Bank One Ballpark which counteracts 9 of the 27...thus making it 18 games. I'm sure I could find some more hitters' parks he played in last year if I really wanted to analyze all of that.

I really think we're starting to overanalyze.


As I said, if you are going to park adjust Helton's home numbers then you also need to park adjust his road numbers... That's all I'm saying.
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Postby slomo007 » Thu Apr 21, 2005 2:20 pm

Yoda wrote:
slomo007 wrote:
Yoda wrote:
slomo007 wrote:I think it's like 27 games or so....and he also has about 9 away games/year in Bank One Ballpark in Arizona...which is a hitters' haven.

I think we're really splitting hairs here... :-b


Well, if you guys are arguing that Helton's home splits are padded due to Coors effects, then you need to be consistent and look at the ball park effects of his road splits as well.

Otherwise how can you use Coors effects to argue against Helton yet not take into account the park effects of his road splits? That is VERY incosistent if you ask me. :-?


Away ballpark stats tend to even out for most players. Yes, Helton played in a pitchers' park division overall for the past few years, but I still can't justify upping his away game numbers based on 27 games in hitter's parks being that 9 of them off the top of my head were in Bank One Ballpark which counteracts 9 of the 27...thus making it 18 games. I'm sure I could find some more hitters' parks he played in last year if I really wanted to analyze all of that.

I really think we're starting to overanalyze.


As I said, if you are going to park adjust Helton's home numbers then you also need to park adjust his road numbers... That's all I'm saying.


Jackal is right that Casey has a pitchers' division as well. I can't believe I'm agreeing with Jackal so much. 8-o
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Postby Yoda » Thu Apr 21, 2005 2:22 pm

slomo007 wrote:
Yoda wrote:
slomo007 wrote:
Yoda wrote:
slomo007 wrote:I think it's like 27 games or so....and he also has about 9 away games/year in Bank One Ballpark in Arizona...which is a hitters' haven.

I think we're really splitting hairs here... :-b


Well, if you guys are arguing that Helton's home splits are padded due to Coors effects, then you need to be consistent and look at the ball park effects of his road splits as well.

Otherwise how can you use Coors effects to argue against Helton yet not take into account the park effects of his road splits? That is VERY incosistent if you ask me. :-?


Away ballpark stats tend to even out for most players. Yes, Helton played in a pitchers' park division overall for the past few years, but I still can't justify upping his away game numbers based on 27 games in hitter's parks being that 9 of them off the top of my head were in Bank One Ballpark which counteracts 9 of the 27...thus making it 18 games. I'm sure I could find some more hitters' parks he played in last year if I really wanted to analyze all of that.

I really think we're starting to overanalyze.


As I said, if you are going to park adjust Helton's home numbers then you also need to park adjust his road numbers... That's all I'm saying.


Jackal is right that Casey has a pitchers' division as well. I can't believe I'm agreeing with Jackal so much. 8-o


Well, both of you guys are very smart people. But I just don't understand why you guys would adjust one set of numbers but not the other.

If we say "Helton is Casey if you take him out of Coors" then we should look at the ball park adjusted numbers for both should we not? If recall correctly, Cincy is a pretty darn good hitters park also.
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