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Postby Yoda » Thu Apr 21, 2005 11:01 am

LBJackal wrote:OK in case you missed it the first time, here it is:

Casey had a better BA, R, RBI, and the same HR in 15 less games on the road over the past 2 years. I didn't say over their careers Casey is better on the road, or overall Casey is better than Helton, but Casey, in 15 less games, had the same HR, 25 more RBI, and his BA was 21 points higher. Explain how that means helton was better?

You're vision is clouded by his Coors stats... and I don't see how comparing an NL 1B's road stats to another NL 1B's road stats over the exact same time period is comparing apples to oranges.

If you actually have something of value to say, or anythign at all to back up your points, be my guest. I'm not going to reply to another one of your "There's no way Casey is better than Helton because... Helton is better!" type posts.


Hmmm... look at their career numbers. Compare Casey's numbers and Helton's road numbers. Helton is a career .920+ hitter on the road. I don't even have to look that up.
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Apr 21, 2005 11:04 am

Yoda wrote:
LBJackal wrote:OK in case you missed it the first time, here it is:

Casey had a better BA, R, RBI, and the same HR in 15 less games on the road over the past 2 years. I didn't say over their careers Casey is better on the road, or overall Casey is better than Helton, but Casey, in 15 less games, had the same HR, 25 more RBI, and his BA was 21 points higher. Explain how that means helton was better?

You're vision is clouded by his Coors stats... and I don't see how comparing an NL 1B's road stats to another NL 1B's road stats over the exact same time period is comparing apples to oranges.

If you actually have something of value to say, or anythign at all to back up your points, be my guest. I'm not going to reply to another one of your "There's no way Casey is better than Helton because... Helton is better!" type posts.


Hmmm... look at their career numbers. Compare Casey's numbers and Helton's road numbers. Helton is a career .920+ hitter on the road. I don't even have to look that up.


I swear you aren't even reading my posts... OK here it is pasted from the very post you just quoted and bolded for you:

I didn't say over their careers Casey is better on the road, or overall Casey is better than Helton
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Postby Yoda » Thu Apr 21, 2005 11:05 am

slomo007 wrote:Something else which is being overlooked:

I keep hearing - "In that lineup (Baltimore's), Helton would see a dramatic increase in runs and RBIs because of the extra protection"

Well.....

In 2003, Helton had Preston Wilson (150 RBI Preston Wilson) and Larry Walker surrounding him in the lineup. He still managed to bat only .324 with 10 HRs and 45 RBIs on the road that year. I don't think Swingin Sammy, Ancient Raffy, and Tejada are all that much more protection than Walker and Wilson were...so I expect his road numbers that year (when he was even a better player) times two to be about right. So, .325, 20-25, 100 RBIs. That's about his limit IMO.


That's funny b/c Casey is not a 325, 20-25, 100 RBI hitter. He's topped .325 only once in his career, hasn't hit 25 since 99, never driven in 100.

Casey is a good value pick who will give you solid stats. Helton schools him outside of Coors. If you want to take a small sample size of 1 year then go right ahead. Casey won't come close to what he put up in 04.
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Postby slomo007 » Thu Apr 21, 2005 11:13 am

Yoda wrote:
slomo007 wrote:Something else which is being overlooked:

I keep hearing - "In that lineup (Baltimore's), Helton would see a dramatic increase in runs and RBIs because of the extra protection"

Well.....

In 2003, Helton had Preston Wilson (150 RBI Preston Wilson) and Larry Walker surrounding him in the lineup. He still managed to bat only .324 with 10 HRs and 45 RBIs on the road that year. I don't think Swingin Sammy, Ancient Raffy, and Tejada are all that much more protection than Walker and Wilson were...so I expect his road numbers that year (when he was even a better player) times two to be about right. So, .325, 20-25, 100 RBIs. That's about his limit IMO.


That's funny b/c Casey is not a 325, 20-25, 100 RBI hitter. He's topped .325 only once in his career, hasn't hit 25 since 99, never driven in 100.

Casey is a good value pick who will give you solid stats. Helton schools him outside of Coors. If you want to take a small sample size of 1 year then go right ahead. Casey won't come close to what he put up in 04.


But the reason he (Casey) never came close in previous years was due to a poor surrounding lineup earlier in his career, and also MANY injuries. Helton is now on the decline, and is not the player he used to be, so I think a very compelling case exists that outside of Coors, Casey would top him. Casey put up incredible numbers last year, especially considering he didn't play in 15 games (99 RBIs is AWFULLY close to 100 by the way). I don't see it as a fluke, I just think he had a poor 2002 and 2003 due to other reasons.
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Postby Slow Pitch » Thu Apr 21, 2005 1:24 pm

slomo007 wrote:
Yoda wrote:
slomo007 wrote:Something else which is being overlooked:

I keep hearing - "In that lineup (Baltimore's), Helton would see a dramatic increase in runs and RBIs because of the extra protection"

Well.....

In 2003, Helton had Preston Wilson (150 RBI Preston Wilson) and Larry Walker surrounding him in the lineup. He still managed to bat only .324 with 10 HRs and 45 RBIs on the road that year. I don't think Swingin Sammy, Ancient Raffy, and Tejada are all that much more protection than Walker and Wilson were...so I expect his road numbers that year (when he was even a better player) times two to be about right. So, .325, 20-25, 100 RBIs. That's about his limit IMO.


That's funny b/c Casey is not a 325, 20-25, 100 RBI hitter. He's topped .325 only once in his career, hasn't hit 25 since 99, never driven in 100.

Casey is a good value pick who will give you solid stats. Helton schools him outside of Coors. If you want to take a small sample size of 1 year then go right ahead. Casey won't come close to what he put up in 04.


But the reason he (Casey) never came close in previous years was due to a poor surrounding lineup earlier in his career, and also MANY injuries. Helton is now on the decline, and is not the player he used to be, so I think a very compelling case exists that outside of Coors, Casey would top him. Casey put up incredible numbers last year, especially considering he didn't play in 15 games (99 RBIs is AWFULLY close to 100 by the way). I don't see it as a fluke, I just think he had a poor 2002 and 2003 due to other reasons.



Does the fact that Great American is a very good hitters park as well have anything to do with that??

Helton is on;y 30 years old. I just cant see how you say he is on the decline. Its not as if he is 36 years old.

Casey is not on Todd Helton level as a hitter. Just accept it & move on with your life.
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Postby Yoda » Thu Apr 21, 2005 1:26 pm

slomo007 wrote:
Yoda wrote:
slomo007 wrote:Something else which is being overlooked:

I keep hearing - "In that lineup (Baltimore's), Helton would see a dramatic increase in runs and RBIs because of the extra protection"

Well.....

In 2003, Helton had Preston Wilson (150 RBI Preston Wilson) and Larry Walker surrounding him in the lineup. He still managed to bat only .324 with 10 HRs and 45 RBIs on the road that year. I don't think Swingin Sammy, Ancient Raffy, and Tejada are all that much more protection than Walker and Wilson were...so I expect his road numbers that year (when he was even a better player) times two to be about right. So, .325, 20-25, 100 RBIs. That's about his limit IMO.


That's funny b/c Casey is not a 325, 20-25, 100 RBI hitter. He's topped .325 only once in his career, hasn't hit 25 since 99, never driven in 100.

Casey is a good value pick who will give you solid stats. Helton schools him outside of Coors. If you want to take a small sample size of 1 year then go right ahead. Casey won't come close to what he put up in 04.


But the reason he (Casey) never came close in previous years was due to a poor surrounding lineup earlier in his career, and also MANY injuries. Helton is now on the decline, and is not the player he used to be, so I think a very compelling case exists that outside of Coors, Casey would top him. Casey put up incredible numbers last year, especially considering he didn't play in 15 games (99 RBIs is AWFULLY close to 100 by the way). I don't see it as a fluke, I just think he had a poor 2002 and 2003 due to other reasons.


I see your point but aren't we talking about Casey as a hitter? I didn't realize we were comparing lineups. He is a 20 HR guy with a career .834 OPS. Most likely 04 was his career year which you guys are viewing as the norm:

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlbpa/players/5930/career
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Postby slomo007 » Thu Apr 21, 2005 1:28 pm

Well I don't know if you've been one to say it...but I brought up Casey's surrounding lineup because that is the argument for many other people in this thread who feel Helton's move to Baltimore, where he'd have a good surrounding lineup, would actually help his value. That is ludicrous IMO. Again, not sure if this is how you justified it or not...I really didn't mean to turn this in to a Casey vs Helton debate...just kind of turned out that way. All I'm saying is that they would put up similar numbers if Helton moved out of Colorado, not sure who would top who, but they would be very similar.
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Postby Yoda » Thu Apr 21, 2005 1:47 pm

slomo007 wrote:Well I don't know if you've been one to say it...but I brought up Casey's surrounding lineup because that is the argument for many other people in this thread who feel Helton's move to Baltimore, where he'd have a good surrounding lineup, would actually help his value. That is ludicrous IMO. Again, not sure if this is how you justified it or not...I really didn't mean to turn this in to a Casey vs Helton debate...just kind of turned out that way. All I'm saying is that they would put up similar numbers if Helton moved out of Colorado, not sure who would top who, but they would be very similar.


slomo007, you are a reasonable guy. But if we are taking into account lineups and ballparks, then shouldn't we be projecting Helton's numbers based on them as well outside of COL? BAL is a pretty neutral park and you ahve to remember that every year Helton has to hit at SF, SD, LA multiple times per year, all against very competitive pitchers and in favorable pitching venues. Also, COL's lineup is anything but good and if he ends up with the O's, he would be surrounded by pretty successful hitters. So no, I can't accept taht given Helton's career road numbers and Casey's career numbers that they should be considered equal in any shape.
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Postby slomo007 » Thu Apr 21, 2005 1:51 pm

Yoda wrote:
slomo007 wrote:Well I don't know if you've been one to say it...but I brought up Casey's surrounding lineup because that is the argument for many other people in this thread who feel Helton's move to Baltimore, where he'd have a good surrounding lineup, would actually help his value. That is ludicrous IMO. Again, not sure if this is how you justified it or not...I really didn't mean to turn this in to a Casey vs Helton debate...just kind of turned out that way. All I'm saying is that they would put up similar numbers if Helton moved out of Colorado, not sure who would top who, but they would be very similar.


slomo007, you are a reasonable guy. But if we are taking into account lineups and ballparks, then shouldn't we be projecting Helton's numbers based on them as well outside of COL? BAL is a pretty neutral park and you ahve to remember that every year Helton has to hit at SF, SD, LA multiple times per year, all against very competitive pitchers and in favorable pitching venues. Also, COL's lineup is anything but good and if he ends up with the O's, he would be surrounded by pretty successful hitters. So no, I can't accept taht given Helton's career road numbers and Casey's career numbers that they should be considered equal in any shape.


That is a good point about the other ballparks, but the AL east isn't exactly a hitter's haven either. I know TB and NY are not good hitters' parks. I think you can only read in to road (inter division) park affects a little bit, because there are a lot of out of division games as well.
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Postby Yoda » Thu Apr 21, 2005 1:51 pm

FYI... if we are counting 81 road games stats against Helton, we need to account for 30 games that are played at LAD, SF, SD. Meaning we need to adjust his road numbers significantly given the quality of pitching and the venue in those cities.
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