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Postby davidmarver » Wed Apr 20, 2005 11:07 pm

Yoda wrote:
LBJackal wrote:
davidmarver wrote:Lb...reposted, but I still think it applies rather well.

davidmarver wrote:Helton is still immensely talented. Helton outside Coors, but still with the Rockie lineup is Sean Casey. Helton outside Coors, in friendly hitters park Camden Yards, with Baltimore's lineup can only increase his value.

Lets not forget that most hitters hit better at home (Casey doesn't though) so to simply average out a players road statistics over 162 has little relevency with how he'll play.

Besides all this, look at the potential matchups Helton would face. He would no longer have to play a combined 27-30 games in San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Diego; three teams with pitchers parks. Instead those games will be played in Yankee Stadium, Fenway, Tropicana, and the SkyDome. I dont know about you, but I certainly like that more than what he had to face on the road in the NL.

The "drop" in his home statistics everyone is presuming (even though Camden is a nice hitter's park) would be offset by the increase his road statistics would provide.

If I owned Helton, which I don't, I'd only be concerned about his move if on-base percentage (or walks) was one of the categories in my league. In OPS leagues, the increase in slugging he'd see, due to the increase in hittable pitches, will offset the decrease in on base percentage.

On another note, I think this deal could go through. Look, it wasn't long ago that the Orioles competed year in and year out. With a new team in the vicinity, Angelos certainly needs to retain all his fans and win over some other potential National fans. We've already seen this with the addition of Sosa this last offseason.


EDIT : Apparently it was just a suggestion by a local newspaper so the last paragraph is kinda irrelevent.


Helton has a worse road BA and SLG than Casey over the past 2 seasons... yeah he might see more pitches to hit, but the ratios wouldn't change THAT much due to protection. LA, SD, and SF are bad places to hit. But so are Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, and St. Louis. And Houston is the worst park for <a style='text-decoration: none; border-bottom: 3px double;' href="http://www.serverlogic3.com/lm/rtl3.asp?si=22&k=left%20handed" onmouseover="window.status='<a style='text-decoration: none; border-bottom: 3px double;' href="http://www.serverlogic3.com/lm/rtl3.asp?si=22&k=left%20handed" onmouseover="window.status='left handed'; return true;" onmouseout="window.status=''; return true;">left handed</a>'; return true;" onmouseout="window.status=''; return true;">left handed</a> hitters in the major leagues. No park cut down on lefty homers more than MM Park last year, and the only NL stadium that hurt lefty BA's more last year, other than MM Park, was Casey's home stadium, GAB. So it's not like he's been in hitter heaven on the road either. He's arguaby had worse ballparks to deal with than Helton.

But yet... Helton to Baltimore people see as a boost in value for his perceived first round value. But Casey to Baltimore... nobody would care. He'd still be an 8th rounder at best. This doens't bother me though because I glady have Casey in a lot of leagues.


I don't undersatnd your love for Casey. Not only is Casey better than David Ortiz but he is better than Helton? :-?


Casey's fairly reliable and he is a nice value pick. That's why he loves Casey so much, and it's understandable. However, he is NO Todd Helton. Like I said before.

Todd Helton + Rockies Lineup - Coors Field + (27-30 games in SD/SF/LA) = Sean Casey
Todd Helton + Baltimore Lineup - Coors Field + (27-30 division games outside pitching parks) >> Sean Casey

EDIT : Added extra > sign for emphasis.
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Postby LBJackal » Wed Apr 20, 2005 11:37 pm

Yoda wrote:
LBJackal wrote:
davidmarver wrote:Lb...reposted, but I still think it applies rather well.

davidmarver wrote:Helton is still immensely talented. Helton outside Coors, but still with the Rockie lineup is Sean Casey. Helton outside Coors, in friendly hitters park Camden Yards, with Baltimore's lineup can only increase his value.

Lets not forget that most hitters hit better at home (Casey doesn't though) so to simply average out a players road statistics over 162 has little relevency with how he'll play.

Besides all this, look at the potential matchups Helton would face. He would no longer have to play a combined 27-30 games in San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Diego; three teams with pitchers parks. Instead those games will be played in Yankee Stadium, Fenway, Tropicana, and the SkyDome. I dont know about you, but I certainly like that more than what he had to face on the road in the NL.

The "drop" in his home statistics everyone is presuming (even though Camden is a nice hitter's park) would be offset by the increase his road statistics would provide.

If I owned Helton, which I don't, I'd only be concerned about his move if on-base percentage (or walks) was one of the categories in my league. In OPS leagues, the increase in slugging he'd see, due to the increase in hittable pitches, will offset the decrease in on base percentage.

On another note, I think this deal could go through. Look, it wasn't long ago that the Orioles competed year in and year out. With a new team in the vicinity, Angelos certainly needs to retain all his fans and win over some other potential National fans. We've already seen this with the addition of Sosa this last offseason.


EDIT : Apparently it was just a suggestion by a local newspaper so the last paragraph is kinda irrelevent.


Helton has a worse road BA and SLG than Casey over the past 2 seasons... yeah he might see more pitches to hit, but the ratios wouldn't change THAT much due to protection. LA, SD, and SF are bad places to hit. But so are Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, and St. Louis. And Houston is the worst park for left handed hitters in the major leagues. No park cut down on lefty homers more than MM Park last year, and the only NL stadium that hurt lefty BA's more last year, other than MM Park, was Casey's home stadium, GAB. So it's not like he's been in hitter heaven on the road either. He's arguaby had worse ballparks to deal with than Helton.

But yet... Helton to Baltimore people see as a boost in value for his perceived first round value. But Casey to Baltimore... nobody would care. He'd still be an 8th rounder at best. This doens't bother me though because I glady have Casey in a lot of leagues.


I don't undersatnd your love for Casey. Not only is Casey better than David Ortiz but he is better than Helton? :-?


If you don't want it to be Casey then call him "Player X". Player X has as good, or arguably better stats then Todd Helton on the road the past 2 seasons. It's not like the Reds have been loaded with talent and Colorado has had nobody. The Rockies' Road OPS the past 2 years: .711. The Reds' Road OPS: .734. Not a huge difference. This takes the parks they play in on the road, the team's lineup, the calibre of pitchers they face, and all that into account. Both teams have been pretty bad the past couple years. It's not like "Player X" was on the Yankees or something.
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Postby Yoda » Thu Apr 21, 2005 8:58 am

LBJackal wrote:
Yoda wrote:
LBJackal wrote:
davidmarver wrote:Lb...reposted, but I still think it applies rather well.

davidmarver wrote:Helton is still immensely talented. Helton outside Coors, but still with the Rockie lineup is Sean Casey. Helton outside Coors, in friendly hitters park Camden Yards, with Baltimore's lineup can only increase his value.

Lets not forget that most hitters hit better at home (Casey doesn't though) so to simply average out a players road statistics over 162 has little relevency with how he'll play.

Besides all this, look at the potential matchups Helton would face. He would no longer have to play a combined 27-30 games in San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Diego; three teams with pitchers parks. Instead those games will be played in Yankee Stadium, Fenway, Tropicana, and the SkyDome. I dont know about you, but I certainly like that more than what he had to face on the road in the NL.

The "drop" in his home statistics everyone is presuming (even though Camden is a nice hitter's park) would be offset by the increase his road statistics would provide.

If I owned Helton, which I don't, I'd only be concerned about his move if on-base percentage (or walks) was one of the categories in my league. In OPS leagues, the increase in slugging he'd see, due to the increase in hittable pitches, will offset the decrease in on base percentage.

On another note, I think this deal could go through. Look, it wasn't long ago that the Orioles competed year in and year out. With a new team in the vicinity, Angelos certainly needs to retain all his fans and win over some other potential National fans. We've already seen this with the addition of Sosa this last offseason.


EDIT : Apparently it was just a suggestion by a local newspaper so the last paragraph is kinda irrelevent.


Helton has a worse road BA and SLG than Casey over the past 2 seasons... yeah he might see more pitches to hit, but the ratios wouldn't change THAT much due to protection. LA, SD, and SF are bad places to hit. But so are Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, and St. Louis. And Houston is the worst park for left handed hitters in the major leagues. No park cut down on lefty homers more than MM Park last year, and the only NL stadium that hurt lefty BA's more last year, other than MM Park, was Casey's home stadium, GAB. So it's not like he's been in hitter heaven on the road either. He's arguaby had worse ballparks to deal with than Helton.

But yet... Helton to Baltimore people see as a boost in value for his perceived first round value. But Casey to Baltimore... nobody would care. He'd still be an 8th rounder at best. This doens't bother me though because I glady have Casey in a lot of leagues.


I don't undersatnd your love for Casey. Not only is Casey better than David Ortiz but he is better than Helton? :-?


If you don't want it to be Casey then call him "Player X". Player X has as good, or arguably better stats then Todd Helton on the road the past 2 seasons. It's not like the Reds have been loaded with talent and Colorado has had nobody. The Rockies' Road OPS the past 2 years: .711. The Reds' Road OPS: .734. Not a huge difference. This takes the parks they play in on the road, the team's lineup, the calibre of pitchers they face, and all that into account. Both teams have been pretty bad the past couple years. It's not like "Player X" was on the Yankees or something.


LBJ, trust me, I understand the park effects. Very well. But when you hype up a player like Sean Casey to be better than David Ortiz and Todd Helton, then you have serious problems. :-t
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Apr 21, 2005 9:17 am

Yoda wrote:
LBJackal wrote:
Yoda wrote:
LBJackal wrote:
davidmarver wrote:Lb...reposted, but I still think it applies rather well.

davidmarver wrote:Helton is still immensely talented. Helton outside Coors, but still with the Rockie lineup is Sean Casey. Helton outside Coors, in friendly hitters park Camden Yards, with Baltimore's lineup can only increase his value.

Lets not forget that most hitters hit better at home (Casey doesn't though) so to simply average out a players road statistics over 162 has little relevency with how he'll play.

Besides all this, look at the potential matchups Helton would face. He would no longer have to play a combined 27-30 games in San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Diego; three teams with pitchers parks. Instead those games will be played in Yankee Stadium, Fenway, Tropicana, and the SkyDome. I dont know about you, but I certainly like that more than what he had to face on the road in the NL.

The "drop" in his home statistics everyone is presuming (even though Camden is a nice hitter's park) would be offset by the increase his road statistics would provide.

If I owned Helton, which I don't, I'd only be concerned about his move if on-base percentage (or walks) was one of the categories in my league. In OPS leagues, the increase in slugging he'd see, due to the increase in hittable pitches, will offset the decrease in on base percentage.

On another note, I think this deal could go through. Look, it wasn't long ago that the Orioles competed year in and year out. With a new team in the vicinity, Angelos certainly needs to retain all his fans and win over some other potential National fans. We've already seen this with the addition of Sosa this last offseason.


EDIT : Apparently it was just a suggestion by a local newspaper so the last paragraph is kinda irrelevent.


Helton has a worse road BA and SLG than Casey over the past 2 seasons... yeah he might see more pitches to hit, but the ratios wouldn't change THAT much due to protection. LA, SD, and SF are bad places to hit. But so are Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, and St. Louis. And Houston is the worst park for left handed hitters in the major leagues. No park cut down on lefty homers more than MM Park last year, and the only NL stadium that hurt lefty BA's more last year, other than MM Park, was Casey's home stadium, GAB. So it's not like he's been in hitter heaven on the road either. He's arguaby had worse ballparks to deal with than Helton.

But yet... Helton to Baltimore people see as a boost in value for his perceived first round value. But Casey to Baltimore... nobody would care. He'd still be an 8th rounder at best. This doens't bother me though because I glady have Casey in a lot of leagues.


I don't undersatnd your love for Casey. Not only is Casey better than David Ortiz but he is better than Helton? :-?


If you don't want it to be Casey then call him "Player X". Player X has as good, or arguably better stats then Todd Helton on the road the past 2 seasons. It's not like the Reds have been loaded with talent and Colorado has had nobody. The Rockies' Road OPS the past 2 years: .711. The Reds' Road OPS: .734. Not a huge difference. This takes the parks they play in on the road, the team's lineup, the calibre of pitchers they face, and all that into account. Both teams have been pretty bad the past couple years. It's not like "Player X" was on the Yankees or something.


LBJ, trust me, I understand the park effects. Very well. But when you hype up a player like Sean Casey to be better than David Ortiz and Todd Helton, then you have serious problems. :-t


LOL

Show me where I said he's better than Helton ???

I said "over the past 2 years Casey has been as good, and arguably better, than Todd Helton on the road"

That's not an opinion, you can look at the stats if you want, he HAS been just as good or better.
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Postby Yoda » Thu Apr 21, 2005 9:48 am

LBJackal wrote:
Yoda wrote:
LBJ, trust me, I understand the park effects. Very well. But when you hype up a player like Sean Casey to be better than David Ortiz and Todd Helton, then you have serious problems. :-t


LOL

Show me where I said he's better than Helton ???

I said "over the past 2 years Casey has been as good, and arguably better, than Todd Helton on the road"

That's not an opinion, you can look at the stats if you want, he HAS been just as good or better.


I don't know how you evaluate players but the only other year Casey came remotely even close to his 04 campaign was 1999. Helton has a .921 career OPS on the road. He is twice the hitter Casey will ever be with or without Coors.

Casey is a decent value pick but he has been anything but consistent in his career. To compare him to players like Helton and/or David Ortiz is like comparing apples and oranges.
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Apr 21, 2005 10:16 am

OK in case you missed it the first time, here it is:

Casey had a better BA, R, RBI, and the same HR in 15 less games on the road over the past 2 years. I didn't say over their careers Casey is better on the road, or overall Casey is better than Helton, but Casey, in 15 less games, had the same HR, 25 more RBI, and his BA was 21 points higher. Explain how that means helton was better?

You're vision is clouded by his Coors stats... and I don't see how comparing an NL 1B's road stats to another NL 1B's road stats over the exact same time period is comparing apples to oranges.

If you actually have something of value to say, or anythign at all to back up your points, be my guest. I'm not going to reply to another one of your "There's no way Casey is better than Helton because... Helton is better!" type posts.
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Postby SouthBronxBombers » Thu Apr 21, 2005 10:40 am

Yes, Jackal, if one proven talent can hit well in Camden, then another proven talent can. I have no idea why you are carrying such a torch for Casey, but it is clearly affecting your perception if you think that if Helton did not play in Coors Casey would be his equal. It is just nonsensical. Whatever floats your boat though.
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Postby slomo007 » Thu Apr 21, 2005 10:48 am

Funny, I agree with Jackal....in fact, I was the one who threw Casey's name out there first and I'll stick by it. Jackal is more of a stats guru than I am, but I see all the evidence in the world that says Casey = Helton outside of Coors, and pretty much no evidence whatsoever that shows otherwise. Jackal's right about this.
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Apr 21, 2005 10:50 am

SouthBronxBombers wrote:Yes, Jackal, if one proven talent can hit well in Camden, then another proven talent can. I have no idea why you are carrying such a torch for Casey, but it is clearly affecting your perception if you think that if Helton did not play in Coors Casey would be his equal. It is just nonsensical. Whatever floats your boat though.


Over the past two years he's not only been his equal away from their home parks, he's been better. It's no guarantee of future success of course, but it definately shouldn't be dismissed the way it has by everybody here. It's over a 2 year span, it's not like I'm basing this on a handful of random games.

And you pick the amount of money you want to bet - if Helton gets traded to B'More, I guarantee he won't hit 30 HR's playing for them ovver an entire season. This is more to do with Helton taking a huge hit in value than it is about Casey being under-rated.
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Postby slomo007 » Thu Apr 21, 2005 11:00 am

Something else which is being overlooked:

I keep hearing - "In that lineup (Baltimore's), Helton would see a dramatic increase in runs and RBIs because of the extra protection"

Well.....

In 2003, Helton had Preston Wilson (150 RBI Preston Wilson) and Larry Walker surrounding him in the lineup. He still managed to bat only .324 with 10 HRs and 45 RBIs on the road that year. I don't think Swingin Sammy, Ancient Raffy, and Tejada are all that much more protection than Walker and Wilson were...so I expect his road numbers that year (when he was even a better player) times two to be about right. So, .325, 20-25, 100 RBIs. That's about his limit IMO.
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