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O's Want Helton

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Postby bd3521 » Wed Apr 20, 2005 12:21 pm

assron wrote:Helton is a gold glove 1B... I dont think anyone's DHing him over a guy like Raffy.


"Some days" at DH will rest his back. I don't think anyone said fulltime DH.
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Postby BronXBombers51 » Wed Apr 20, 2005 1:13 pm

assron wrote:Helton is a gold glove 1B... I dont think anyone's DHing him over a guy like Raffy.


Although Raffy is also a gold-glove first baseman...
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Postby SouthBronxBombers » Wed Apr 20, 2005 1:38 pm

Helton in Camden falls at worst to second round value. As is continually pointed out to those who refuse to grasp the concept, you cannot simply double the away stats and assume that is what he would perform at any other park. If Tejada can hit upwards of 30 shots while playing for Baltinore, I think it is pretty safe to assume Helton can also. You folks act like his hitting at Coors is the only thing that makes him an exceptional hitter. It ain't. As for the comparisons to Casey? Sheesh. Give it a rest.
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Postby crazycanuck » Wed Apr 20, 2005 1:54 pm

slomo007 wrote:
bleach168 wrote:
baseballnewb wrote:He wouldn't be a fantasy bust after the trade. He'd probably bat 3rd in that lineup which would increase his RBI and R totals by a good 25-35 each most likely. He also would have real protection so would see more hittable pitches instead of being pitched around every AB. He'd still hit around 330 and would probably hit around 25 HR but with much stronger secondary numbers than in colorado. I think this would increase his value if anything.


Good point.

Helton's career OPS outside of Coors is .922.

Sheffield's career OPS is .928.


To say Helton would be a bust away from coors is simply wrong...the guy can flat out hit, and considering he would have a lot more protection in the lineup - he has NONE now - I see this boosting his value.

If he were traded to the Dodgers, than I might consider the possibilty of reducing his numbers, but right now he gets walked a ton, and to me it seems like perhaps he's getting a little frustrated.

The O's lineup with Helton will be almost as good as the Yankees. I don't see Helton's value dropping.


Helton's is so high simply because he has played in a lineup with nobody around him for many years (thus, high OBP). Sheffield has almost always played in stacked lineups. Helton is a BIG bust outside of Colorado. He would put up Sean Casey like numbers - .320, 25, 100.
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Postby LBJackal » Wed Apr 20, 2005 7:43 pm

SouthBronxBombers wrote:If Tejada can hit upwards of 30 shots while playing for Baltinore, I think it is pretty safe to assume Helton can also. You folks act like his hitting at Coors is the only thing that makes him an exceptional hitter. It ain't. As for the comparisons to Casey? Sheesh. Give it a rest.


So because Tejada can do it, Helton can? Good logic there... :-°

As for the comparisons to Casey, why is it so far fetched? They've been the same player pretty much on the road the past couple seasons. Any reason that you and many others find it so unrealistic that they're compared?
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Postby rainman23 » Wed Apr 20, 2005 8:18 pm

Most of these numbers are teaching me more about Sean Casey than they are Todd Helton. Helton's road numbers for the most part look pretty damned good...if anything they're kind of belying the idea that he's strictly a Coors illusion. Yeah, the Coors numbers are ridiculous, but the road splits don't look bad at all. Maybe not first round good, but in another strong hitter's park like Camden Yards there would seem a lot of reason for optimism. I'm a Helton owner, and I would welcome a change to that lineup. OBP would certainly drop, along with undoubtedly HR's. But as several others have said, that supporting cast is going to help him in other ways.

So why have you guys got me all hepped up for something that isn't going to happen? Looks like I'm going to have to continue to be happy with his .450 OBP, and maybe not a lot else.

The real story here -- how come I didn't know how good Casey has become? On the road anyway...what's his problem at home?

(Before we get too carried away with Casey, though -- in 2002, at that magic age of 28, his road OPS was 644. So although he may be coming off a tremendous 2004, he doesn't exactly have Helton's track record.)
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Postby josebach » Wed Apr 20, 2005 9:04 pm

baseballnewb wrote:Most players who come to coors hit significantly worse than their career average on the road because everything simply breaks differently than they are used to.


I'm sorry, but when I read this I had to do a double take. You're kidding right?

Look at the following link:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/par ... eason=2004

Anybody that says moving out of Coors is a good thing for Helton's numbers is kidding themselves.


Edited so I could explain that I misunderstood the guy I was quoting and now look like an idiot. ;-D
Last edited by josebach on Wed Apr 20, 2005 11:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby LBJackal » Wed Apr 20, 2005 10:40 pm

Those park factors are way off, must be a glitch with ESPN. Jacob's Field isn't nearly that good. Their HR PF for last year was way less than half of what they show (73 to 203).

Still... Colorado is obviously much better than Camden. Especially for lefties. But I think the guy was talking about hitters doing worse on the road when they're traded to Colorado, compared to their road numbers while with a different team. It might be true, I don't know. I havn't seen anything to back up that claim though.
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Postby Yoda » Wed Apr 20, 2005 11:02 pm

LBJackal wrote:
davidmarver wrote:Lb...reposted, but I still think it applies rather well.

davidmarver wrote:Helton is still immensely talented. Helton outside Coors, but still with the Rockie lineup is Sean Casey. Helton outside Coors, in friendly hitters park Camden Yards, with Baltimore's lineup can only increase his value.

Lets not forget that most hitters hit better at home (Casey doesn't though) so to simply average out a players road statistics over 162 has little relevency with how he'll play.

Besides all this, look at the potential matchups Helton would face. He would no longer have to play a combined 27-30 games in San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Diego; three teams with pitchers parks. Instead those games will be played in Yankee Stadium, Fenway, Tropicana, and the SkyDome. I dont know about you, but I certainly like that more than what he had to face on the road in the NL.

The "drop" in his home statistics everyone is presuming (even though Camden is a nice hitter's park) would be offset by the increase his road statistics would provide.

If I owned Helton, which I don't, I'd only be concerned about his move if on-base percentage (or walks) was one of the categories in my league. In OPS leagues, the increase in slugging he'd see, due to the increase in hittable pitches, will offset the decrease in on base percentage.

On another note, I think this deal could go through. Look, it wasn't long ago that the Orioles competed year in and year out. With a new team in the vicinity, Angelos certainly needs to retain all his fans and win over some other potential National fans. We've already seen this with the addition of Sosa this last offseason.


EDIT : Apparently it was just a suggestion by a local newspaper so the last paragraph is kinda irrelevent.


Helton has a worse road BA and SLG than Casey over the past 2 seasons... yeah he might see more pitches to hit, but the ratios wouldn't change THAT much due to protection. LA, SD, and SF are bad places to hit. But so are Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, and St. Louis. And Houston is the worst park for left handed hitters in the major leagues. No park cut down on lefty homers more than MM Park last year, and the only NL stadium that hurt lefty BA's more last year, other than MM Park, was Casey's home stadium, GAB. So it's not like he's been in hitter heaven on the road either. He's arguaby had worse ballparks to deal with than Helton.

But yet... Helton to Baltimore people see as a boost in value for his perceived first round value. But Casey to Baltimore... nobody would care. He'd still be an 8th rounder at best. This doens't bother me though because I glady have Casey in a lot of leagues.


I don't undersatnd your love for Casey. Not only is Casey better than David Ortiz but he is better than Helton? :-?
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Postby justinA » Wed Apr 20, 2005 11:02 pm

warrick95 wrote:That's a really good offer for Colorado. They'd dump Helton's big contract and get a pretty damn good prospect in Markakis. Markakis has superb tools and really seemed to be finding his groove at the plate last year. Since he was a two way player in JUCO (in fact, most liked him as an LHP...in a different system like Colorado, it wouldn't be TOO surprising to see him go back to the mound, but since he's had a couple of years at the plate, that'd make it a bit iffy), he's been a bit slower to develop, but the raw ability is certainly there. While most doubt Markakis will develop big time power, he could be a lesser Helton out there.

This would also open another spot where they could move Garrett Atkins/Jeff Baker/Ian Stewart...

From the O's perspective, it really doesn't make sense. Their farm system is already REALLY thin, especially after Adam Loewen pretty much busted and Wade Townsend went back to school (should've drafted Nelson like some of their officials wanted...I think Angelos made the call on Townsend). The Sosa deal was decent, but if they're going to kill their farm system, they might as well do it for top starting pitching. They need a frontline starter to anchor the staff...not another bat.

It would ruin Hayden Penn's career though. He's been lighting it up in the Minors.
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