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O's Want Helton

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Postby ramble2 » Tue Apr 19, 2005 8:00 pm

Spartans Rule wrote:Perhaps the more important question for us fantasy players is not how Helton will do, but who goes to Colorado in exchange?

You assume it would be a mostly prospect package, but if someone like Jay Gibbons is tossed in there, they could get a major value spike.


This important point seems to have gotten lost in the shuffle.

I thought Gibbons was going to do really well last year (D'oh!). Putting him in Coors field would make him a very attractive utility man.
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Postby jkpigskin » Tue Apr 19, 2005 10:05 pm

yup yup this is a very interesting possiblity..,. as i saw this article and all my friends flipped.. helton??? that guy in colorado...

but this is just speculation... when it said the baltimore sun reported... it was taking about a commentary titled "Colorado....Is helton Free?" i think this was just a columnist bringing an opinion to a table.... so i dont c it as credible

it was only a suggestion by the writer..
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Postby DGroundhog » Wed Apr 20, 2005 3:33 am

This discussion is reminiscent of the 'Tejada's value drops if he leaves Oakland' debate that once raged.

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Postby LBJackal » Wed Apr 20, 2005 3:37 am

Who said Tejada's value would drop from leaving Oakland? And I don't see how it's like leaving Coors Field either... Oakland is a mediocre park. Coors is the best park, and for lefties it's even more of a hitter's park. Look at the splits of you want evidence... Tejada never had splits like that while in Oakland, not even close. He played better on the road than at home while playing for the A's.
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Postby DGroundhog » Wed Apr 20, 2005 4:05 am

Alot of people were saying it. I pointed out he hit for a better avg. on the road back then, but there was still the gloom and doom predictions for Tejada.

I'm not singling you (or anyone else) out.

Helton is a stud, he will be one in Colorado or Baltimore.
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Postby LBJackal » Wed Apr 20, 2005 4:24 am

DGroundhog wrote:Alot of people were saying it. I pointed out he hit for a better avg. on the road back then, but there was still the gloom and doom predictions for Tejada.

I'm not singling you (or anyone else) out.

Helton is a stud, he will be one in Colorado or Baltimore.


I'm sure Helton weill be very good if traded to Baltimore, which it doesn't look like will happen. But would you say the same if Sean Casey was traded to Baltimore? That he'd be a stud? Same BA, same HR's, same SLG... sure Helton is more healthy, but will health make that much of a difference? Helton is not a first rounder without Colorado, not even close. His R and RBI might go up 10-15 each but his BA would drop drastically and so would his HR.

Here's road stats for Helton and Casey for the 2003 and 2004 seasons combined:
Code: Select all
             Helton       Casey
Games:         156          141
HR:            21            21
BA:           .325          .346
OBA:         .441          .400
SLG:          .529          .530


Not too different, now are they? Casey might even be better considering he played 15 less games and had the same HR total and a much better BA. But if Casey was traded to Baltimore he'd be an 8th rounder at best. But if Helton is traded to Baltimore people think he's not only still a first rounder, but his value has increased. Yeah.... right. You Helton owners better hope he stays in Colorado.
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Postby davidmarver » Wed Apr 20, 2005 4:33 am

Lb...reposted, but I still think it applies rather well.

davidmarver wrote:Helton is still immensely talented. Helton outside Coors, but still with the Rockie lineup is Sean Casey. Helton outside Coors, in friendly hitters park Camden Yards, with Baltimore's lineup can only increase his value.

Lets not forget that most hitters hit better at home (Casey doesn't though) so to simply average out a players road statistics over 162 has little relevency with how he'll play.

Besides all this, look at the potential matchups Helton would face. He would no longer have to play a combined 27-30 games in San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Diego; three teams with pitchers parks. Instead those games will be played in Yankee Stadium, Fenway, Tropicana, and the SkyDome. I dont know about you, but I certainly like that more than what he had to face on the road in the NL.

The "drop" in his home statistics everyone is presuming (even though Camden is a nice hitter's park) would be offset by the increase his road statistics would provide.

If I owned Helton, which I don't, I'd only be concerned about his move if on-base percentage (or walks) was one of the categories in my league. In OPS leagues, the increase in slugging he'd see, due to the increase in hittable pitches, will offset the decrease in on base percentage.

On another note, I think this deal could go through. Look, it wasn't long ago that the Orioles competed year in and year out. With a new team in the vicinity, Angelos certainly needs to retain all his fans and win over some other potential National fans. We've already seen this with the addition of Sosa this last offseason.


EDIT : Apparently it was just a suggestion by a local newspaper so the last paragraph is kinda irrelevent.
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Postby thehat » Wed Apr 20, 2005 4:39 am

Helton would derive one benefit from the switch to the AL. He'd get to DH on occasion, meaning a little less stress on that back of his. I don't see a significant deviation from his current numbers if he shifted sites. He would perhaps lose some HR, but might score more runs and drive in more as well.

From the non-fantasy vantage point, if the O's can cajole the Rockies into taking on Ponson's contract, they'll be well rid of him. That alone makes the deal acceptable from their standpoint. As for Colorado, they're now committed to a total restructuring of the team (again) and I actually do believe Helton will be somewhere else before the year is out, though I have no clue where that might be.
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Postby LBJackal » Wed Apr 20, 2005 5:03 am

davidmarver wrote:Lb...reposted, but I still think it applies rather well.

davidmarver wrote:Helton is still immensely talented. Helton outside Coors, but still with the Rockie lineup is Sean Casey. Helton outside Coors, in friendly hitters park Camden Yards, with Baltimore's lineup can only increase his value.

Lets not forget that most hitters hit better at home (Casey doesn't though) so to simply average out a players road statistics over 162 has little relevency with how he'll play.

Besides all this, look at the potential matchups Helton would face. He would no longer have to play a combined 27-30 games in San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Diego; three teams with pitchers parks. Instead those games will be played in Yankee Stadium, Fenway, Tropicana, and the SkyDome. I dont know about you, but I certainly like that more than what he had to face on the road in the NL.

The "drop" in his home statistics everyone is presuming (even though Camden is a nice hitter's park) would be offset by the increase his road statistics would provide.

If I owned Helton, which I don't, I'd only be concerned about his move if on-base percentage (or walks) was one of the categories in my league. In OPS leagues, the increase in slugging he'd see, due to the increase in hittable pitches, will offset the decrease in on base percentage.

On another note, I think this deal could go through. Look, it wasn't long ago that the Orioles competed year in and year out. With a new team in the vicinity, Angelos certainly needs to retain all his fans and win over some other potential National fans. We've already seen this with the addition of Sosa this last offseason.


EDIT : Apparently it was just a suggestion by a local newspaper so the last paragraph is kinda irrelevent.


Helton has a worse road BA and SLG than Casey over the past 2 seasons... yeah he might see more pitches to hit, but the ratios wouldn't change THAT much due to protection. LA, SD, and SF are bad places to hit. But so are Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, and St. Louis. And Houston is the worst park for left handed hitters in the major leagues. No park cut down on lefty homers more than MM Park last year, and the only NL stadium that hurt lefty BA's more last year, other than MM Park, was Casey's home stadium, GAB. So it's not like he's been in hitter heaven on the road either. He's arguaby had worse ballparks to deal with than Helton.

But yet... Helton to Baltimore people see as a boost in value for his perceived first round value. But Casey to Baltimore... nobody would care. He'd still be an 8th rounder at best. This doens't bother me though because I glady have Casey in a lot of leagues.
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Postby assron » Wed Apr 20, 2005 12:19 pm

Helton is a gold glove 1B... I dont think anyone's DHing him over a guy like Raffy.
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