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O's Want Helton

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Postby IVIisfits138 » Tue Apr 19, 2005 5:13 pm

He'd being going from the best hitters park to a very good hitters park. Don't write him off as having a major dropped off. Also he'd be in the best offense in the league. I'd say his value would stay about the same.
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Postby slomo007 » Tue Apr 19, 2005 5:13 pm

bleach168 wrote:
slomo007 wrote:
bleach168 wrote:
baseballnewb wrote:He wouldn't be a fantasy bust after the trade. He'd probably bat 3rd in that lineup which would increase his RBI and R totals by a good 25-35 each most likely. He also would have real protection so would see more hittable pitches instead of being pitched around every AB. He'd still hit around 330 and would probably hit around 25 HR but with much stronger secondary numbers than in colorado. I think this would increase his value if anything.


Good point.

Helton's career OPS outside of Coors is .922.

Sheffield's career OPS is .928.

The O's lineup with Helton will be almost as good as the Yankees. I don't see Helton's value dropping.


Helton's is so high simply because he has played in a lineup with nobody around him for many years (thus, high OBP). Sheffield has almost always played in stacked lineups. Helton is a BIG bust outside of Colorado. He would put up Sean Casey like numbers - .320, 25, 100.


Fine.

Helton's road slugging pct is .526.

Sheffield's overall career slugging pct is .527.


Sheffield's recent years of .600 and .540 are more indicative of how we're currently valuing Sheffield though. You're factoring in the years when Sheffield wasn't the stud he is now.

I'm not saying Helton will stink outside of Coors, but there's no way he'll be a first round pick there. Top 5 round if he's lucky.
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Postby ocmusicjunkie » Tue Apr 19, 2005 5:14 pm

You guys need to get over the "thin air" trash.

It's not going to drop a guy like Helton from 35 jacks to 15 :-?
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Postby Spartans Rule » Tue Apr 19, 2005 5:16 pm

Perhaps the more important question for us fantasy players is not how Helton will do, but who goes to Colorado in exchange?

You assume it would be a mostly prospect package, but if someone like Jay Gibbons is tossed in there, they could get a major value spike.
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Postby jjigglers » Tue Apr 19, 2005 5:17 pm

as a helton owner, i would welcome this trade too.
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Postby Slow Pitch » Tue Apr 19, 2005 5:17 pm

As excited as this deal would make me as a Helton owner the chacne of this happening has to less than 10%.
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Postby iversonxp » Tue Apr 19, 2005 5:18 pm

as i own helton, i would like the trade
but i doubt it will happen.
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Postby LBJackal » Tue Apr 19, 2005 5:27 pm

ocmusicjunkie wrote:You guys need to get over the "thin air" trash.

It's not going to drop a guy like Helton from 35 jacks to 15 :-?


Over the past 2 seasons Helton has 44 HR's at Coors and 21 HR's on the road. That's a pretty drastic change. Drops him from 30+ to 20+ HR's per season. His career BA split: .375 at Coors, .299 on the road. Like Slomo said... he's pretty much Sean Casey if he doesn't have Coors Field.
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Postby Q » Tue Apr 19, 2005 5:38 pm

While he wouldnt be a fantasy bust his value would take a huge hit. Looking at his home vs away career splits his season numbers would look something like this...

.300 28HR 94RBI 89R 3SB

While thats not too bad you can get very similar production from a guy like Sean Casey.
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Postby baseballnewb » Tue Apr 19, 2005 6:09 pm

Over the past 2 seasons Helton has 44 HR's at Coors and 21 HR's on the road. That's a pretty drastic change. Drops him from 30+ to 20+ HR's per season. His career BA split: .375 at Coors, .299 on the road. Like Slomo said... he's pretty much Sean Casey if he doesn't have Coors Field.


You can't just make that comparison. First off a large part of the coor's effect is how the ball breaks in the thin air. It means pitches come in with a very different look than they do in other parks. Most players who come to coors hit significantly worse than their career average on the road because everything simply breaks differently than they are used to. He'd probably play at his road numbers for the first month and then an improved version of those numbers thereafter.
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