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Joe Morgan strikes again

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Postby jimmyrad » Mon Apr 18, 2005 5:19 pm

SouthBronxBombers wrote:Moneyball works great when you have the payroll to go out and get a Schilling, a Manny, a Cabrerra, a Foulke, a Pedro et al. The Red Sox did not win with the moneyball concept, they won by buying studs. Moneyball has won nothing. The Twins have been just as good as the A's, the Braves have been a lot better, the Twins are in the same payroll range and the Braves limit their payroll as well. The A's caught lightning in a bottle with the three aces on the mound, and it got them what? A first round exit in the playoffs, no reall draw at the park and pretty much nothing. Moneyball is a theory, which has proven out nothing.

People throw around the term "Moneyball" as meaning "Acquire OBP guys, don't worry about fielding, don't steal bases, draft college players." They look at the Scott Hatterbergs and Chad Bradford examples and think: "That is a 'Moneyball' player and those players aren't winning championships."

To me, this is the cliff notes version. It is completely missing the point of the book and the "theory" behind it. What Moneyball preaches, at the heart of it, is "Don't waste your money." Whether your a small market or large market team, you can STILL institue the Moneyball strategy throughout your team.

The poster points at the Braves as an example for a team winning without using the Moneyball strategy, while limiting their payroll. Well, it seems that the poster has just contradicted himself. The Braves have been able to limit their payroll, at the bequest of Time Warner, by USING the Moneyball approach.

Look at their OF this year: Raul Mondesi and Brian Jordan. Whether or not they succeed this year, these two players were clearly undervalued before the year. The Braves, rather than force one of their top prospects (Francoer or Marte) to make a jump they might struggle with, went the cheap route and brought in two undervalued vets. Why get one of your top prospects a year closer to free agency while enduring a year of likely struggles? This is a Moneyball approach to the game.

This is a small example, but my point is that I agree with AcidRocks post. Almost every team these days is making some sort of effort to stop with the monstrous contracts that can ruin a franchise. THe effects of Moneyball can be seen on nearly every team. Just because a team doesn't fit EXACTLY into the mold of the A's of the early 2000's, does not mean that they aren't now heavily influenced by what the A's were able to accomplish by taking a closer look at their expenses. It also doesn't mean that teams were completely oblivious to this notion until Moneyball was written. The A's just provided a wonderful example of exactly how drastic one CAN be in saving money in MLB while still fielding a successfull team on the field.
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Postby SouthBronxBombers » Mon Apr 18, 2005 5:26 pm

I did not contradict myself, because the Braves are not using the moneyball approach. Brian Jordan and Raul Mondesi do not fit the moneyball mold. That they have a limited payroll does not mean they are following moneyball, that is just ridiculous, which is essentially what you are claiming.
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Postby AcidRock23 » Mon Apr 18, 2005 5:37 pm

I wasn't just limiting myself to current teams...I'd suggest "The Spirit of St Louis", a history of St Louis baseball, as a good source of teams (Browns and Cards...) that was NOT in a big market that nonetheless put good teams together, doing a lot of the same things that Beane has earned accolades for doing in Oakland recently.

It's NOT new and, if it's not new, the whole 'theory' falls apart from an analytical standpoint, even if it 'worked' in the sense that enough people bought it (not me, I read it from the library...hee hee...) for the author to do just fine, however lacking in rigor his 'analysis' (sic) was.
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Re: Joe Morgan strikes again

Postby DK » Mon Apr 18, 2005 5:39 pm

wrveres wrote:
fantasyfiend wrote:In his latest ESPN chat session Morgan had this to say about Moneyball:

"That moneyball theory is overrated. No one has ever won with it. PLAYERS win games. Not theories."

A Classic Morganism


its true ... ;-D

what exactly have these "Moneyball" teams won?


Try 483 games in the last 5 years, making the playoffs four of those years, and winning more than every other team except the Yankees in that span.

San Diego has won 372 games in the same span, and has not made the playoffs in the last five years.

How do you define success?
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Postby quicksilver8 » Mon Apr 18, 2005 5:43 pm

Moneyball is not a specific script for how to win...rather it is a philosophy and approach toward running a team. If you don't think that the Braves have used the philosophy of buying low and selling high and utilizing undervalued players, well...you haven't been paying much attention the last 15 years.

Obviously Boston combined a Yankee spending approach with some moneyball philosphy and won. I would agree that the salary had more to do with their win than their moneyball 'players' if you want to call them that.
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Postby CubsFan7724 » Mon Apr 18, 2005 5:57 pm

Pokey wrote:
DominicanLou wrote:
chadxor wrote:it's not only about winning, it's about staying competitive in a big money market with a small market team.


Well, the Marlins, who are a small market team, have won the World Series two times in the last eight years. Seems slightly more succesful than what any Moneyball team has done.


While winning it all is the ultimate goal, It can be argued that the regular season is a better representation for how well your team is put together. The postseason is such a small sample size that the best team doesn't always win. The A's have put out alot of teams that were definately good enough to win the series, but just had some rotten luck.

Rotten luck? More like they choked. They were up 2-0 on the Yanks, then lose 3 straight in 01. I was rooting for them so bad, and then they lost savagely. And of course they let Jeter do that play that elevated him to "Defensive God" somehow. :-D
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Postby fantasyfiend » Mon Apr 18, 2005 5:57 pm

Regardless of how anyone feels about Moneyball or any of that, the first post might be referring to how dumb a statement like "Theories don't win games, players win games" is.

Theories don't even play games. Contracts don't play games. Books don't, not even Moneyball and especially not Canseco's book. Of course players win and lose the games... they're the physical objects IN the games. This statement falls into that category of statements that are dumb just because they're so obvious.


Exactly.

Its funny; the mere mention of the word moneyball is good for a 2 page argument when i was only pointing out how stupid Morgan is.
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Postby CubsFan7724 » Mon Apr 18, 2005 6:04 pm

Beane is going to start hunting out Defensive Range guys? For some reason I don't think that will work as well as OPS. OPS is a far more predictable stat than Range Factor or Zone Rating, even though they are the good measures of fielding, they are still iffy at best.
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Postby giants8307 » Mon Apr 18, 2005 6:14 pm

CubsFan7724 wrote:
Pokey wrote:
DominicanLou wrote:
chadxor wrote:it's not only about winning, it's about staying competitive in a big money market with a small market team.


Well, the Marlins, who are a small market team, have won the World Series two times in the last eight years. Seems slightly more succesful than what any Moneyball team has done.


While winning it all is the ultimate goal, It can be argued that the regular season is a better representation for how well your team is put together. The postseason is such a small sample size that the best team doesn't always win. The A's have put out alot of teams that were definately good enough to win the series, but just had some rotten luck.

Rotten luck? More like they choked. They were up 2-0 on the Yanks, then lose 3 straight in 01. I was rooting for them so bad, and then they lost savagely. And of course they let Jeter do that play that elevated him to "Defensive God" somehow. :-D


Teams lose 3 straight a lot during the course of a year. The fact that that's all it takes to kick you out of the playoffs seems pretty sketchy to me. The regular season numbers have already been posted, and as you can see, the A's win A LOT. I think it was something like 4 straight trips to the playoffs. Pretty damn good if you ask me.

edit: NOT specifically directed at CubsFan. :-b
Last edited by giants8307 on Mon Apr 18, 2005 6:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby fantasyfiend » Mon Apr 18, 2005 6:18 pm

It was having a 3rd of the payroll less than the other 3 teams in the division ... and having the 2nd best record over the last 5 seasons....only second to the New York Yankees.
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