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Postby ramble2 » Sun Apr 17, 2005 10:02 pm

beltrans_boy wrote:
ramble2 wrote:There's probably about as varied an opinion on Bonderman here at the Cafe as there is for any player. Some see his ERA from last year (4.89) or or his 3-year average (5.20) and think he's been incredibly overhyped.

Others see a 22 year old kid who was forced to learn the game in the majors instead of the minors, see his 2nd half stats from last year and underlying numbers and see a breakout year.

Just remember that there is a lot of room between Loaiza and Santana for a pitcher to be effective. I think he'll be a very good value this year. I think he'll put up a sub 4 ERA with a good K rate.

As you can see from my signature, I have a cafe bet that Bonderman will end the season with better numbers than Radke.


Who bet against you? I'm not sold on Bonderman yet, but Radke? Jesus...


I made the bet against Mookie4ever. It was part of a thread wondering if Bonderman was overrated based on where he was being selected in drafts. I was offered Bonderman against either Radke or Od. Perez. I think Radke is underrated, but I also think Bonderman will out-perform him this year (or come close).

(In case anyone goes back and reads that whole thread, for the record Bonderman was taken after these pitchers:

F. Garcia
Od. Perez
Radke
Colon
L. Hernandez

but before these pitchers:

Sabathia
Buerhle :-o
Webb
Penny
Brown
Morris
Weaver
Wolf
Pineiro

In my draft. It's a keeper league, and I took him in the 12th round.)
"The game has a cleanness. If you do a good job, the numbers say so. You don't have to ask anyone or play politics. You don't have to wait for the reviews." - Sandy Koufax
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Postby GSes » Sun Apr 17, 2005 10:02 pm

I have Bonderman on almost every one of my teams, just ask all the cafe guys I am in leagues with. :-D

I think he is the real deal, its too early to tell b/c all he has done is dominate the royals, but my grandma could do that. I picked Jeremy Bonerman and Rich Harden is to be the Ben Sheets/Oliver Perez of 2005

I projected Bonderman to go

17 wins
3.40 ERA
1.15 Whip
200 K's

Thats what I think/hope he will do. The kid just has nasty stuff, and its b.c of those above projections that I drafted him in almost every league, im pretty much gonna live and die by him this year, so i hope i am right.
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Postby looptid » Mon Apr 18, 2005 5:24 am

DIPS ERA isn't the best way to go. Sort out your favorite team by Batting Average Against on Balls In Play for last season. The best and worst pitchers from that team won't randomly be scattered from top to bottom.

Try expected runs allowed (ExRA) instead, (then plug it into the ERA formula if you like):

(H+BB+HBP+(0.7*E)-GIDP)*((4*HR)+((H-HR)*1.048)+E+(0.7*(PB+BK+WP))+(0.32*(BB+HBP-IBB)))
Batters Faced

I think Bonderman will be worthy of the hype if he gets another 30 starts against Kansas City this season. He's had two good starts against the 29th best offense this season. He had a decent second half last season, and a hot Septmeber. Mentioning Sheets is kind of a reach. Even in his super hot September, Bonderman's K/BB was only 3 (a good number, but not akin to the 8.25 Sheets put up last season). If Bonderman duplicates his second half from last season, that'd be a huge breakthrough. Over 200 innings, that'd look like:

3.70 ERA, 188 K, 62 BB, 22 HRa, 1.10 WHIP

I'll take the over on a 3.70 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. I think he'll be a good second or third fantasy starter, but he isn't quite ready to make the leap into staff anchor.
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