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Bonderman

Postby bmd » Sun Apr 17, 2005 5:20 pm

I know there's been alot of talk about him on this board but what does everyone think now that he has a couple of games under his belt? Will he have a break out season this year just as Ollie Perez, Sheets, and Peavy did last season?
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Postby ramble2 » Sun Apr 17, 2005 5:40 pm

There's probably about as varied an opinion on Bonderman here at the Cafe as there is for any player. Some see his ERA from last year (4.89) or or his 3-year average (5.20) and think he's been incredibly overhyped.

Others see a 22 year old kid who was forced to learn the game in the majors instead of the minors, see his 2nd half stats from last year and underlying numbers and see a breakout year.

Just remember that there is a lot of room between Loaiza and Santana for a pitcher to be effective. I think he'll be a very good value this year. I think he'll put up a sub 4 ERA with a good K rate.

As you can see from my signature, I have a cafe bet that Bonderman will end the season with better numbers than Radke.
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Postby Secret Avatar » Sun Apr 17, 2005 6:41 pm

I think he's gonna be a stud. The only real question is whether its in 2005 or later. I think for 2005, he's gonna be solid overall. Expect a sub-4 ERA with good ratios and 160 to 180 K. Along the way, expect days where he looks unhittable (like his first game) and days where he he gets rocked (like his second game). The one good thing to take away from that second game is that, after posting a truly putrid first inning, he bounced back and dominated afterwards. That's a good sign of mental toughness in a guy barely old enough to drink.
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Postby Strasil42 » Sun Apr 17, 2005 6:44 pm

ramble2 wrote:There's probably about as varied an opinion on Bonderman here at the Cafe as there is for any player. Some see his ERA from last year (4.89) or or his 3-year average (5.20) and think he's been incredibly overhyped.

Others see a 22 year old kid who was forced to learn the game in the majors instead of the minors, see his 2nd half stats from last year and underlying numbers and see a breakout year.

Just remember that there is a lot of room between Loaiza and Santana for a pitcher to be effective. I think he'll be a very good value this year. I think he'll put up a sub 4 ERA with a good K rate.

As you can see from my signature, I have a cafe bet that Bonderman will end the season with better numbers than Radke.


great post ;-D

i like bonderman for this year as well.
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Postby hybrid » Sun Apr 17, 2005 7:20 pm

I think he will have a pretty good year, but comparing his numbers to those you mentioned isn't really fair. Bonderman is in the AL, the pitchers you listed had the advantage of pitching in the NL. I think if he was in the NL he could come somewhat close to similiar numbers.

For this year though, I think he will post a mid 3 era with about 180 k's. I'm sure there will be a few coming in here and saying mid 4 era's though, like another said ... the cafe seems pretty split on what he will do this year.
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Postby beltrans_boy » Sun Apr 17, 2005 7:25 pm

ramble2 wrote:There's probably about as varied an opinion on Bonderman here at the Cafe as there is for any player. Some see his ERA from last year (4.89) or or his 3-year average (5.20) and think he's been incredibly overhyped.

Others see a 22 year old kid who was forced to learn the game in the majors instead of the minors, see his 2nd half stats from last year and underlying numbers and see a breakout year.

Just remember that there is a lot of room between Loaiza and Santana for a pitcher to be effective. I think he'll be a very good value this year. I think he'll put up a sub 4 ERA with a good K rate.

As you can see from my signature, I have a cafe bet that Bonderman will end the season with better numbers than Radke.


Who bet against you? I'm not sold on Bonderman yet, but Radke? Jesus...
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Postby mtarail » Sun Apr 17, 2005 8:29 pm

I agree with ramble2 and secret avatar. But I think his K/IP ratio is gonna improve. Barring any health problems that limit his innings I think he'll finish the year with right around 200 K's.
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Postby Airzoom32 » Sun Apr 17, 2005 9:33 pm

While I think Bonderman might be being overhyped, I think he will have an AMAZING year for two reasons. First off if you look at his DIPS ERA (Defensive Indipendant Pitching Statistic) compared to his actual ERA he had the biggest difference, 1.67 runs per game (1.22 better than any other pitcher in baseball last year). Act - 4.89 DIPS - 3.27. For those who dont know this number takes into account only statistics the pitcher can control. HR, BB, K relative to thier innings pitched. Its a very good stat in determining if a pitcher is pitching within thier ability limits or above them. Secondly he has a very good strikeout to walk ratio. For those reasons I think he will have a AMAZING year, if he gets some run support I think he will garner some attention for Cy Young, but wont win it. His year will be very similar to Maddux' first big year with the Cubs. If you look at his numbers for the previous years they are erily similar to bondermans and his DIPS for the year before was 1.62 below his actual ERA. While that doesnt mean for sure he will do this, and I am by no means saying that he will, just statisically it looks as though it is within the realm of possibilites. [/b]
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Postby Tavish » Sun Apr 17, 2005 9:53 pm

hybrid wrote:I think he will have a pretty good year, but comparing his numbers to those you mentioned isn't really fair. Bonderman is in the AL, the pitchers you listed had the advantage of pitching in the NL. I think if he was in the NL he could come somewhat close to similiar numbers.


Pitching in the AL isn't that big of a deal for him considering his division. Unless you buy into the amazing offensive season the Indians had last year or the rebuilt small-ball White Sox, the teams he faces a great deal of the time would all be middle of the pack or lower NL offenses even with the DH thrown in.

He has shown the ability to be great against the really bad offenses and flashes that he can stand in there with the good ones. When he gets put in against some of the big boy offenses I would definitely consider benching him. A few years down the road and after the Yankees sign him he will be ace material.
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Postby hybrid » Sun Apr 17, 2005 10:01 pm

Even if your going to try and say the AL Central with DH isn't much better hitting wise. It still takes away about 30 k's that he would get from facing the opposing pitcher.
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