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Brandon Lyon. 16th best closer in BB?

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Brandon Lyon. 16th best closer in BB?

Postby Rohan » Sun Apr 17, 2005 12:59 am

Espn came out with a ranking and has him 16th best. Mota was 17th and also drafted in the 5th round in my 15 team league. Eddie was taken in the 10th and ranked 15th, by espn. That puts Lyon, if drafted in a 15 team league in the 6th-9th round. Where do Lyon rank in your league?
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Postby Secret Avatar » Sun Apr 17, 2005 9:53 am

I find it hard to rank closers by number, considering there are so many factors beyond their control that figure so critically into their potential for good stats (such as save opps). I rank them by "tier" and have three: elite, mid-range, and scrub. Right now, I have Lyon as a super-scrub. He's done well in the job so far. Arizona looks like a scrappy team that's gonna generate lots of save opps. He could move up into mid-range in the next few weeks. He's just got so little track record that it's hard to tell whether his success so far is beginners luck or the real deal.

If I had to make projections for him, I'd say 2 wins, 25 saves, 3.33 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 45 K.

BTW, I have Lyon on my team so I hope he does move up into mid-range!
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Postby bselig » Sun Apr 17, 2005 10:04 am

closers better than him...foulke, rivera, nathan, percival, krod, guardado, f.cordero, wagner, isringhausen, lidge, gagne, hoffman...mesa, dotel, kolb and maybe mota are probably about the same level as lyon...so anywhere from about 12-18 sounds good for lyon. mota as a fifth round pick, even in a fifteen team league, is ludicrous
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Postby bselig » Sun Apr 17, 2005 10:06 am

forgot bj ryan and probably others...but anyway i think it'd be difficult to rank lyon higher tahn 12-13 and lower than 20 or the low 20's...espn's ranking sounds good
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Postby Rohan » Sun Apr 17, 2005 6:11 pm

This is based on drafts held today, Lyon would or could fall between 8-11 round. In my 15 team league, Mota went fifth. We had 2-3 runs on closers, so everyone paniced. Affeldt was forced to be taken at round 15, 30 rounds keep in mind. I was lucky to nab Lyon in the 25th round.
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Postby Trazcon » Sun Apr 17, 2005 7:02 pm

Gotta love those scrub closers...

I think Lyon has a chance at being a halfway decent closer by the end of the year (barring any setbacks).
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Postby Q » Sun Apr 17, 2005 8:29 pm

Those rankings depend too much on how many save oppertunities the closers have actually had. Look at their skills as a better indicator.
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Postby mtarail » Sun Apr 17, 2005 8:38 pm

No way is Lyon a top 15 closer IMO. He's still a scrub with some potential and his job insn't as nearly as secure in Arizona as a lot of other guys.

Rather than recite the long list of closers that I'd draft before Lyon, here are the closers that I wouldn't take until Lyon was gone.

Tsao, Adams, Takatsu (maybe),--That's it.
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Postby great gretzky » Sun Apr 17, 2005 8:39 pm

Q wrote:Those rankings depend too much on how many save oppertunities the closers have actually had. Look at their skills as a better indicator.


incorrect, opportunity has a lot to do with closer value.
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Postby LBJackal » Sun Apr 17, 2005 8:40 pm

great gretzky wrote:
Q wrote:Those rankings depend too much on how many save oppertunities the closers have actually had. Look at their skills as a better indicator.


incorrect, opportunity has a lot to do with closer value.


Yes it does, but it's a lot harder to predict opportunity than it is to predict performance.
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