Don't let happen to you what happened to others last year when Dunn hit 8 homers in a week after going 0/million, many were sick of the 0-fers and didn't bother to check on him closely enough as he sat on the bench hitting HR after HR
bceagles04 wrote:I cant stand the constant 0-4, 1-4, 0-3. Nights.
You knew about that going into your draft, didn't you?
Yes doctor, I am sick. Sick of those who are spineless. Sick of those who feel self-entitled. Sick of those who are hypocrites. Yes doctor, an army is forming. Yes doctor, there will be a war. Yes doctor, there will be blood.....
bceagles04 wrote:I cant stand the constant 0-4, 1-4, 0-3. Nights.
You knew about that going into your draft, didn't you?
Yea, at this rate I'd be shocked to see Dunn hit anything over .260. Fantasy Baseball Index got this one right:
Fantasy Baseball Index wrote:...For Dunn, striking out 195 times in 568 at-bats not only makes it impossible to hit better than .266, it makes it nearly impossible to hit as much as .266. For his career, about 37 percent of the balls Dunn puts in play become hits. If he'd gotten hits on just 37 percent of the balls he put in play in 2004, he would've gotten 138 hits - he would've hit just .243.
They go on to note that he's a legit 50 HR hitter, but not a legit .266 hitter. Of course, after 8 games he's hitting what, .175? The problem, though is NOT his K rate (well, not entirely). That's at around his historical rate - around 1/3 of his at-bats. The problem is that he's not taking as many walks. Only 2 in 28 at-bats. Typically you'd expect him to have around 5 or 6 walks in that many at-bats.
This is a very small sample size, obviously, but the point is not to expect that K rate to drop. The BB rate should go up, and the average with it (though not very high).
"The game has a cleanness. If you do a good job, the numbers say so. You don't have to ask anyone or play politics. You don't have to wait for the reviews." - Sandy Koufax
bceagles04 wrote:I cant stand the constant 0-4, 1-4, 0-3. Nights.
You knew about that going into your draft, didn't you?
Yea, at this rate I'd be shocked to see Dunn hit anything over .260. Fantasy Baseball Index got this one right:
Fantasy Baseball Index wrote:...For Dunn, striking out 195 times in 568 at-bats not only makes it impossible to hit better than .266, it makes it nearly impossible to hit as much as .266. For his career, about 37 percent of the balls Dunn puts in play become hits. If he'd gotten hits on just 37 percent of the balls he put in play in 2004, he would've gotten 138 hits - he would've hit just .243.
They go on to note that he's a legit 50 HR hitter, but not a legit .266 hitter. Of course, after 8 games he's hitting what, .175? The problem, though is NOT his K rate (well, not entirely). That's at around his historical rate - around 1/3 of his at-bats. The problem is that he's not taking as many walks. Only 2 in 28 at-bats. Typically you'd expect him to have around 5 or 6 walks in that many at-bats.
This is a very small sample size, obviously, but the point is not to expect that K rate to drop. The BB rate should go up, and the average with it (though not very high).
FBI is correct on this one. His H% was much higher than most other years. He is a .250 type hitter with a bunch of holes in his swing. He may develop into a better hitter at some point but until you see a dramatic improvement in the K department, you should not expect a high avg.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
Cafe Home
Fantasy Football
Fantasy Basketball
Fantasy Hockey
by nuggets » Sat Apr 16, 2005 12:47 am 
