Vazquez.. - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Vazquez..

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Postby GSes » Fri Apr 15, 2005 3:36 am

LBJackal wrote:Actually hit rate is:

(H-HR) / (BFP-HR-K-BB-HBP)

BFP is batters facing pitcher. Basically, plate appearances against.



thank god LBJ cuz I tried and tried and tired to use the formula Q gave me and it DID NOT WORK, I thought mabe i was retarded but it was the wrong formula.
Image
GSes
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 2498
Joined: 9 Jun 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: The Shadows

Postby LBJackal » Fri Apr 15, 2005 3:42 am

hybrid wrote:My only problem with saying he is bound to come back is, your taking for granted his 17/4 ratio will be like that for the whole year. Yes looking at those given stats he should of pitched better in the first 3 games, but that isn't to say he will keep up that ratio.

But if he does keep up that ratio, then yeah he will pitch better in the future.


Yeah that's something else you have to take into account. That he might not keep up that K/BB either. This is what I mentioned in my first post in this thread. His current ERA and K/BB will not continue throughout the year. It just won't happen. His hit rate can't stay that high, so something has to give. I would say that his K/BB will have a better chance of staying close to the current rate because it's directly controlled by Vazquez. The 4.25 he's at right now is almost identical to his 2003 season, and not far off his first half last year when he had to face a DH.

If I had to bet, I'd say his ERA will be about 3.80 for the rest of the year. With the damage already done though, his total ERA for the season will probably be pretty bad no matter how he pitches.
Image

"Jack, will you call me, if you're able?"

"I've got your phone number written, in the back of my Bible."
LBJackal
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Pick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 9196
Joined: 1 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: The Hotel Yorba

Postby Q » Fri Apr 15, 2005 11:04 am

I assure you the formula that I gave you is accurate, you must have just typed something in incorrectly. Actually the formula that Jackal gave is correct too. Its your choice whether or not you would want to include home runs. I have an excel file with all the pitchers in the majors right now that have any kind of value in fantasy that also lists their year by year and career hit percentage, strikeout rate, walk rate, and hr rate.
Q
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 635
Joined: 5 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Amazinz » Fri Apr 15, 2005 11:20 am

TheYanks04 wrote:Dominate? He has a 12 ERA. Some dominance. It is all bad luck right? Please. Needless to say I do not buy into stat BS as has been demonstrated in the past. Obviously he is not as bad as a 12 ERA. That does not mean he is going to turn into Santana or antrthing decent.

How can you play fantasy baseball and ignore statistical indicators? ;-)

Seems like it goes hand in hand. Anyway, I seriously doubt Vaz will turn into Santana and Hybrid makes a good point. Analyzing a 3-game performance and expecting any sort outcome can be dangerous. A sample this small can be very misleading.

But, after these three games his DIPS ERA is still hanging around ~3.5 while his actual ERA is ~12. So there definitely looks like there might be opportunity to gain some value here. Of course you might be right and Vaz may blow up in our faces but if you can get Vaz for cheap right now it's a low risk gamble.
Image
Maine has a good swing for a pitcher but on anything that moves, he has no chance. And if it's a fastball, it has to be up in the zone. Basically, the pitcher has to hit his bat. - Mike Pelfrey
Amazinz
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeWeb SupporterPick 3 Weekly WinnerSweet 16 SurvivorLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 18800
Joined: 16 Mar 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: in Canada, toughening up figure skaters

Postby GSes » Tue Apr 26, 2005 12:44 am

GSes wrote:
quicksilver8 wrote:I'm old school hatin' Vazquez guy...so I'll stick to my guns...
I don't like him to even come close to his expo glory days...
Definite bench material and waiver material if there is someone better available.


you must be joking


HELLO???????????

17 K/4BB

that is Vaz's K/bb ratio

17/4
17/4
17/4

17/4 might be the BEST K/BB ratio as of right now in the ENTIRE major leagues. (exception of Willis and Beckett).

In 2003 vaz had 58K/5BB in April and ended up something like 240K/55BB

Right now Vaz has 17K/4BB and that my friends is one HELL of a K/bb ratio.

There is no way that a guy with that kind of ratio can keep an ERA of over 10 going, let alone an ERA over 5.

You can't strike 200 guys out or have a K/BB ratio of of 4/1 like vaz has, and keep an ERA over 5.

not possible

show me one guy in history who had a K/bb ratio that good and had an ERA over 4.50????????????????? find one with an ERA over 4. its gonna be hard.

Vazquez might be giving up a lot of runs right now, but he is looking real good otherwise.

Dropping vaz? that would be ridiculus

and don't trade him, no1 is gonna give u fair value.

I hate to compare Vazquez to Santana but I have to in this case.

Last season Santana was downright horrible in April and May, and a lot of people on here said Drop him or trade him. I said NO, you DO NOT trade or drop a guy who has the stuff Santana has and above all else In april and may santan's K/BB ratio was 54/19.

I said there is no way santana keeps an ERA over 5 with those kind of ratios, its a fluke, he is pitching fine.

then what happen?

santana went off like no1 could have imagined.

Im not saying Vazquez is as good as Santana (although just 1 season ago, he was being taken ahead of santana in drafts)

im not saying vazquez is gonna go 20-0 with an ERA below 2 for the rest of the year.

I am simply saying that Vazquez K/BB ratio is reminding me a lot of his 2003 year 241/57

Vazquez is going to get going, he already has the strikeouts going, he might lead the majors in K's, I'm not sure.

Vazquez is going to strike out over 200 batters this year just like he did in 2003 and 2001. With that kind of dominance you can not have an ERA worse then 4.

dropping vazquez would not be a smart move at all. you will regret ur decision. He is slowly but surely coming around.

wait and see


2 very good starts in a row and suddelny Mr. Javier Vazquez is making me and LBJ look like we acutally might know what were talking about once in a while :-D ;-D ;-D
Image
GSes
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 2498
Joined: 9 Jun 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: The Shadows

Postby George_Foreman » Tue Apr 26, 2005 2:12 am

LBJackal wrote:If I had to bet, I'd say his ERA will be about 3.80 for the rest of the year. With the damage already done though, his total ERA for the season will probably be pretty bad no matter how he pitches.


are you kidding? he's already down to 6.11 :-°
i definitely think he'll get his ERA down under 4.00 for the year. 3.50 would be nice, but i'm not that optimistic. ;-)

actually, to reach 3.50, he'd have to have an ERA of 3.28 the rest of the way (assuming a total of 200 IP), which really isn't that absurd considering he did it for a whole year in 2003.

then again, he won the cy young that year. :-o

i guess i'll just have to split the difference and hope for 3.75. :-D
"I don't buy everything I read,
I havn't even read everything I've bought"

"I find it more comforting to believe that this [life] isn't simply a test."
George_Foreman
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 4351
Joined: 16 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: at Morimoto's, eating $50 worth of sushi

Postby GSes » Tue Apr 26, 2005 2:27 am

George_Foreman wrote:
LBJackal wrote:If I had to bet, I'd say his ERA will be about 3.80 for the rest of the year. With the damage already done though, his total ERA for the season will probably be pretty bad no matter how he pitches.


are you kidding? he's already down to 6.11 :-°
i definitely think he'll get his ERA down under 4.00 for the year. 3.50 would be nice, but i'm not that optimistic. ;-)

actually, to reach 3.50, he'd have to have an ERA of 3.28 the rest of the way (assuming a total of 200 IP), which really isn't that absurd considering he did it for a whole year in 2003.

then again, he won the cy young that year. :-o

i guess i'll just have to split the difference and hope for 3.75. :-D


hmmm, I seem to recall Eric Gagne winning the cy young that year lol ;-D

but hey its all good
Image
GSes
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 2498
Joined: 9 Jun 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: The Shadows

Postby thehat » Tue Apr 26, 2005 2:30 am

Can anyone here tell me what to serve with the crow I'll soon be eating thanks to Senor Vazquez?
thehat
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 3721
Joined: 1 Jun 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Fabulous Las Vegas

Postby RynMan » Tue Apr 26, 2005 4:28 am

thehat wrote:Can anyone here tell me what to serve with the crow I'll soon be eating thanks to Senor Vazquez?


Not sure I follow.... :-/
Image
RynMan
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerAward-Winning Graphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterEagle Eye
Posts: 8891
Joined: 4 Feb 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Oztailia

Postby George_Foreman » Tue Apr 26, 2005 4:30 am

GSes wrote:
George_Foreman wrote:
LBJackal wrote:If I had to bet, I'd say his ERA will be about 3.80 for the rest of the year. With the damage already done though, his total ERA for the season will probably be pretty bad no matter how he pitches.


are you kidding? he's already down to 6.11 :-°
i definitely think he'll get his ERA down under 4.00 for the year. 3.50 would be nice, but i'm not that optimistic. ;-)

actually, to reach 3.50, he'd have to have an ERA of 3.28 the rest of the way (assuming a total of 200 IP), which really isn't that absurd considering he did it for a whole year in 2003.

then again, he won the cy young that year. :-o

i guess i'll just have to split the difference and hope for 3.75. :-D


hmmm, I seem to recall Eric Gagne winning the cy young that year lol ;-D

but hey its all good

oh, yeah... !+)

well, maybe vazquez SHOULD have won that year! yeah, that's right. it was that dern west-coast writers' bias!! O:-)
"I don't buy everything I read,
I havn't even read everything I've bought"

"I find it more comforting to believe that this [life] isn't simply a test."
George_Foreman
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 4351
Joined: 16 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: at Morimoto's, eating $50 worth of sushi

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Wednesday, Oct. 22
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

San Francisco at Kansas City
(8:07 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact