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Postby RynMan » Fri Apr 15, 2005 1:35 am

Q wrote:I completely agree with Jackal. Him and I look at pitchers the same way. Very nice part about Milton, youve got it right. He is looking at pitchers the saber metric way. It is a very useful and successful way to analyze pitchers and it is proven to be a true theory. I wrote an article on what it is and how to use it that could help you a lot in your fantasy league.
http://www.diamondgurus.com/bradpitcher ... ntage.html


Interesting article Q. How do you calculate or find out hit rate?
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Postby Freebird27 » Fri Apr 15, 2005 1:42 am

That's all-time - over the past 100+ years, the worst ERA's ever. Of the 131 seasons of a K/BB that high there have been exactly 0 with an ERA of 4.50 or higher. And notice all of the guys on the top of the list are finesse pitchers who don't get a lot of K's. Not the case with Vazquez. This will not continue the way it has, there's absolutely no reason to believe it will.

As for my formula, I'll go punch in the numbers...

3.68 ERA

Given his K's, BB's, and HR, that is what his ERA should be. This is a great buy-low candidate if I've ever seen one.[/quote]



Thats what I said last season as well :-t
Last edited by Freebird27 on Fri Apr 15, 2005 1:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Q » Fri Apr 15, 2005 1:43 am

Well the forumla just determines what percentage of the balls in play become hits. So its hits devided by balls in play. The hits part is obvious, just hits. Balls in play is a little more complicated. Take the innings pitched and multiply it by 3 because there are 3 outs in an inning (.2 is actually 2/3), then add its because each hit is another ball in play and subtract strikeouts because that will take make all of the outs balls in play.

Mathematically

Hits / [(IP x 3) + Hits - K]
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Postby kcs261 » Fri Apr 15, 2005 1:43 am

TheYanks04 wrote:Dominate? He has a 12 ERA. Some dominance. It is all bad luck right? Please. Needless to say I do not buy into stat BS as has been demonstrated in the past. Obviously he is not as bad as a 12 ERA. That does not mean he is going to turn into Santana or antrthing decent.


Vazquez isn't WW material. However, I wouldn't let him anywhere near my active lineup, either. He is suffering from what I would call: post-NY fans still in his head syndrome, plus he was used and abused in MTL at too young an age. I think those innings took a toll.
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Postby Q » Fri Apr 15, 2005 1:46 am

My sites co-writer also has tried to create an Expected ERA based on strikeouts walks and home runs but its turned out to be very difficult and inaccurate. I just look at other years with similar rates and a hit percentage of around 30% to see where the ERA and WHIP should be, and after using this for a while you just know where it will be about.
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Postby hybrid » Fri Apr 15, 2005 1:57 am

My only problem with saying he is bound to come back is, your taking for granted his 17/4 ratio will be like that for the whole year. Yes looking at those given stats he should of pitched better in the first 3 games, but that isn't to say he will keep up that ratio.

But if he does keep up that ratio, then yeah he will pitch better in the future.
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Postby GSes » Fri Apr 15, 2005 2:28 am

LBJackal wrote:OK here's the answer to what GSes was talking about... the all-time worst ERA's of pitcher who had a K/BB ratio of at least 17:4 with at least 200 IP to get rid of small sample sizes:

Brad Radke 4.49
David Wells 4.14
David Wells 4.11
Jack Lynch 4.09
Greg Maddux 4.02
Brad Radke 3.94
Jimmy Key 3.88
Shane Reynolds 3.85
Bob Tewksbury 3.83
Scott Sanderson 3.81

That's all-time - over the past 100+ years, the worst ERA's ever. Of the 131 seasons of a K/BB that high there have been exactly 0 with an ERA of 4.50 or higher. And notice all of the guys on the top of the list are finesse pitchers who don't get a lot of K's. Not the case with Vazquez. This will not continue the way it has, there's absolutely no reason to believe it will.

As for my formula, I'll go punch in the numbers...

3.68 ERA

Given his K's, BB's, and HR, that is what his ERA should be. This is a great buy-low candidate if I've ever seen one.




hey! where is my credit in all of this???

I helped convince the cafe world of Vazquez being a stud. See the part where To answer gses question............I'm the one who said no one could have an ERA under 4.5 in history wit that kind of K/bb ratio.

LBjackyl just did all the hard work and went and looked it up!

Lb its hard to belive for the first time in a long time, we actually agree on something?

anyways im glad to be apart of the team that predicts Vazquez to catch on fire soon enough. ;-D
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Postby GSes » Fri Apr 15, 2005 3:02 am

Q wrote:This is actually where I would advise to buy low with Javier Vazquez. Javy has been victimized by a very high hit percentage this year. Right now it stands at 37.1%. Which is 7.1 higher than it should be. Now I saw him in the first game against the Cubs in which he did seem to be serving up meatballs and his .158 HR rate agrees with that and this could somewhat explain the high hit rate. However the hit percentage theory dictates that this is something that he can not control and since I have used this theory in the past with incredible success I am going to trust it. The skills that he can control and matter he is doing very well in. His strikeout rate is 1.31 while his walk rate is only .30. Thats over 4 to 1. While his Home Run rate is still high it is early and its a small sample size. Keep an eye on him, he could start producing very very well.




can u please tell me the formula for figuring out a pitcher's Hit rate

The average is 30% for all pitchers, and I believe you are correct that Vaz's is currently 37.1%

but how did u figure that out?
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Postby Q » Fri Apr 15, 2005 3:11 am

Well I did post it about 5 posts above this one explaining the formula but Ill post the mathematical part of it again...
Hits / [(IP x 3) + Hits - K]

To understand how it works and how to use it read my article about it on my site http://www.DiamondGurus.com, under Brad Phillips called "Analyzing Pitchers Saber Metrically"
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Postby LBJackal » Fri Apr 15, 2005 3:22 am

Actually hit rate is:

(H-HR) / (BFP-HR-K-BB-HBP)

BFP is batters facing pitcher. Basically, plate appearances against.
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