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Postby RAmst23 » Thu Apr 14, 2005 10:58 pm

Isn't this the Santana problem all over again? Yes, Santana wasn't THIS bad last year, but he was dropped in leagues across the board and then he turned around and dominated. Will Vasquez become Santana dominant? Probably not, but now is a good time to buy low, and worst that happens is he rides on your bench for awhile.
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Apr 14, 2005 11:04 pm

The Jury wrote:
LBJackal wrote:OK here's the answer to what GSes was talking about... the all-time worst ERA's of pitcher who had a K/BB ratio of at least 17:4 with at least 200 IP to get rid of small sample sizes:

Brad Radke 4.49
David Wells 4.14
David Wells 4.11
Jack Lynch 4.09
Greg Maddux 4.02
Brad Radke 3.94
Jimmy Key 3.88
Shane Reynolds 3.85
Bob Tewksbury 3.83
Scott Sanderson 3.81

That's all-time - over the past 100+ years, the worst ERA's ever. Of the 131 seasons of a K/BB that high there have been exactly 0 with an ERA of 4.50 or higher. And notice all of the guys on the top of the list are finesse pitchers who don't get a lot of K's. Not the case with Vazquez. This will not continue the way it has, there's absolutely no reason to believe it will.

As for my formula, I'll go punch in the numbers...

3.68 ERA

Given his K's, BB's, and HR, that is what his ERA should be. This is a great buy-low candidate if I've ever seen one.


Excellent work LBJ ;-D How do you manage to come up with these kinds of statistics?


MS Access. Just get the Lahman Database and they have every stat from the past 100+ years. Takes a bit to get used to working the queries and everything, but using the basic stuff is pretty simple and that's all I use.

And Yanks04 - Milton stinks because he allows way too many HR, and he doesn't have a great K/BB anyway. I never said K's were the answer to how good a pitcher is. You need to factor in BB's and HR's as well. Milton is a horrible pitcher now matter how you look at it.
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Postby Q » Thu Apr 14, 2005 11:09 pm

This is actually where I would advise to buy low with Javier Vazquez. Javy has been victimized by a very high hit percentage this year. Right now it stands at 37.1%. Which is 7.1 higher than it should be. Now I saw him in the first game against the Cubs in which he did seem to be serving up meatballs and his .158 HR rate agrees with that and this could somewhat explain the high hit rate. However the hit percentage theory dictates that this is something that he can not control and since I have used this theory in the past with incredible success I am going to trust it. The skills that he can control and matter he is doing very well in. His strikeout rate is 1.31 while his walk rate is only .30. Thats over 4 to 1. While his Home Run rate is still high it is early and its a small sample size. Keep an eye on him, he could start producing very very well.
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Postby Pedantic » Thu Apr 14, 2005 11:12 pm

Hmmm...LBJ has finally convinced me for once. I like Vazquez to have a pretty decent season.
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Postby agchris02 » Thu Apr 14, 2005 11:17 pm

Vazquez is going to do more than fine, he's going to win me the playoffs :). Im happy to sit him on the bench right now and trade for him in leagues where I dont have him. (In two announcements: J Vazquez for B Arroyo and J Vazquez for J Burnitz - WHOOP)

Be calm, dont panic, its 3 starts. Yes he's serving up pitches, anyone who watches a game and sees a nice 85MPH slider just hang up in the zone like it does have to wince. BUT, he is slowly erracticaly getting some control back. Give him a month or so, he'll turn around.
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Postby baseballnewb » Fri Apr 15, 2005 12:36 am

ERA is useless when you want to judge a pitchers future success. Yeah he's letting too many HR's but a minor adjustment fixes that. His stats really are not nearly as bad as his ERA.
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Postby RynMan » Fri Apr 15, 2005 1:00 am

Jackal, you are a stat nerd. But dam, that is a pretty impressive statistic you just threw out there i gotta admit! Well done. Makes me want Vazquez more now. Though isn't that argument only valid if he continues to maintain those ratios? I understand we are only talking here and now though....
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Postby Q » Fri Apr 15, 2005 1:17 am

I completely agree with Jackal. Him and I look at pitchers the same way. Very nice part about Milton, youve got it right. He is looking at pitchers the saber metric way. It is a very useful and successful way to analyze pitchers and it is proven to be a true theory. I wrote an article on what it is and how to use it that could help you a lot in your fantasy league.
http://www.diamondgurus.com/bradpitcher ... ntage.html
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Postby George_Foreman » Fri Apr 15, 2005 1:21 am

the only thing i regret is drafting vazquez, since now i can't trade dontrell willis for him. >_<
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