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Postby Mustangs989 » Thu Apr 14, 2005 10:33 pm

LBJackal wrote:Speaking of ratios... that post has the lowest words per paragraph ratio that I've ever seen :-b

That 8:1 word to paragraph ratio sure screams stud to me ;-D

Really though I expect Vazquez to turn things around, like Jackal said he's really not pitching that bad and I'd be interested in seeing what his ERA according to Jackal's formula is after this start. Considering the price you can get him at (I traded Dmitri Young for him in 1 league) he's well worth the risk IMO.
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Apr 14, 2005 10:34 pm

TheYanks04 wrote:Well. we now know who wrote the Rotowire article....


Seriously, get your head out of a stat like Ks and look at a stat like runs allowed. He has been gettting lit up since mid 04. Who cares if he Ks a few in between hanging meatballs?


Who cares? Well, everybody should, but I'm sure not many people will. How can you dismiss K's and look at runs as a measure of how good he's been? You don't dominate like that and allow that many hits at the same time. Like I said, it's one or the other, he won't stay like this all year. I'm betting the K's and BB's will remain good, and therefore his WHIP and ERA will be good as well.
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Postby Pedantic » Thu Apr 14, 2005 10:36 pm

You all are forgetting one thing. For all this talk of K/BB, you're forgetting that Vazquez is serving up bombs on a silver platter. That kind of negates any positive K/BB karma he may have amassed. :-b
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Postby GSes » Thu Apr 14, 2005 10:37 pm

LBJackal wrote:
TheYanks04 wrote:Well. we now know who wrote the Rotowire article....


Seriously, get your head out of a stat like Ks and look at a stat like runs allowed. He has been gettting lit up since mid 04. Who cares if he Ks a few in between hanging meatballs?


Who cares? Well, everybody should, but I'm sure not many people will. How can you dismiss K's and look at runs as a measure of how good he's been? You don't dominate like that and allow that many hits at the same time. Like I said, it's one or the other, he won't stay like this all year. I'm betting the K's and BB's will remain good, and therefore his WHIP and ERA will be good as well.


ya thats what i was trying to say, LBjackyl just is able to say it in like 400 less words ;-D
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Postby TheYanks04 » Thu Apr 14, 2005 10:38 pm

Dominate? He has a 12 ERA. Some dominance. It is all bad luck right? Please. Needless to say I do not buy into stat BS as has been demonstrated in the past. Obviously he is not as bad as a 12 ERA. That does not mean he is going to turn into Santana or antrthing decent.
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Apr 14, 2005 10:48 pm

OK here's the answer to what GSes was talking about... the all-time worst ERA's of pitcher who had a K/BB ratio of at least 17:4 with at least 200 IP to get rid of small sample sizes:

Brad Radke 4.49
David Wells 4.14
David Wells 4.11
Jack Lynch 4.09
Greg Maddux 4.02
Brad Radke 3.94
Jimmy Key 3.88
Shane Reynolds 3.85
Bob Tewksbury 3.83
Scott Sanderson 3.81

That's all-time - over the past 100+ years, the worst ERA's ever. Of the 131 seasons of a K/BB that high there have been exactly 0 with an ERA of 4.50 or higher. And notice all of the guys on the top of the list are finesse pitchers who don't get a lot of K's. Not the case with Vazquez. This will not continue the way it has, there's absolutely no reason to believe it will.

As for my formula, I'll go punch in the numbers...

3.68 ERA

Given his K's, BB's, and HR, that is what his ERA should be. This is a great buy-low candidate if I've ever seen one.
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Postby TheYanks04 » Thu Apr 14, 2005 10:52 pm

What it should be is what the score on the board says it is.

.
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Apr 14, 2005 10:53 pm

TheYanks04 wrote:What it should be is what the score on the board says it is.


Well 100+ years of history says it shouldn't be. But to each his own.
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Postby The Jury » Thu Apr 14, 2005 10:56 pm

LBJackal wrote:OK here's the answer to what GSes was talking about... the all-time worst ERA's of pitcher who had a K/BB ratio of at least 17:4 with at least 200 IP to get rid of small sample sizes:

Brad Radke 4.49
David Wells 4.14
David Wells 4.11
Jack Lynch 4.09
Greg Maddux 4.02
Brad Radke 3.94
Jimmy Key 3.88
Shane Reynolds 3.85
Bob Tewksbury 3.83
Scott Sanderson 3.81

That's all-time - over the past 100+ years, the worst ERA's ever. Of the 131 seasons of a K/BB that high there have been exactly 0 with an ERA of 4.50 or higher. And notice all of the guys on the top of the list are finesse pitchers who don't get a lot of K's. Not the case with Vazquez. This will not continue the way it has, there's absolutely no reason to believe it will.

As for my formula, I'll go punch in the numbers...

3.68 ERA

Given his K's, BB's, and HR, that is what his ERA should be. This is a great buy-low candidate if I've ever seen one.


Excellent work LBJ ;-D How do you manage to come up with these kinds of statistics?
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Postby TheYanks04 » Thu Apr 14, 2005 10:56 pm

The box score differs.

Stats do not predict performance. They analyze performance. Vazquez hangs/serves way to many meatballs...all you have to do is watch him pitch regularly to see that. Milton Ks guys too at a decent clip...still sucks for the same reason.
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