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Oakland A's - Why is everybody so high on them?

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Postby Phatferd » Wed Apr 20, 2005 3:39 pm

SaintsOfTheDiamond wrote:
Phatferd wrote:Where has it been proven that its a 50-50 chance? I bet it hasn't and there is no way to prove that.


That is a completely unfounded comment. I think the andecdotal evidence over the past 6-7-8 years disproves that. Are you saying all these wild card teams that have won the WS are the best team? I'm not much of a baseball historian, but I'm sure many of the guys here who are will tell you just what GTWMA has been saying, the best team rarely wins.


I do, I am sorry, but that is what I believe. All the Wild Card does is allow an extra team into the playoffs. They very well could be the best team and due to outside circumstances didn't get going until later in the season. Of all the Wild Card teams to ever win the WS, I truly believe they were the better teams.

Arizona, was a very good team with 2 of the best pitchers of this era along with a Hall of Fame 1st baseman with Gonzo who had a monster year and a bunch of role players.

The Angels I feel were the best team in '02 and didn't get things going til late May. They played baseball so well that season, they moved runners over, stole bases, made productive outs better than anyone I have seen in a long time.

The Marlins had a very good team in 04. Beckett was unhittable, Penny is solid, Pavano was OK. They had great speed and contact guys at the top of that lineup and some good run producers behind them.

Sorry for thinking those teams were better than the others and won the WS.

If luck was a big part of winning in the playoffs then you have to be really really lucky to win 3 series.

Btw, I didn't say the best teams wins 75% of the time for sure. If you read where I said that I was suggesting a number to agree on with RynMan or LBJ, don't remember who. I threw that number out there to see if he agreed. I believe it to be true, and I know you can't prove it, as you can't prove that luck plays a role either.

They are both theories and there is support for both sides. It just matters what side you want to believe and neither is wrong.
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Postby LBJackal » Wed Apr 20, 2005 6:51 pm

Phatferd... look at last year's regular seasons standings, like GTWMA already pointed out. The Yankees won 62% of their games, and this is including tons of games against the Jays and D'Rays. And still - only 62%. Now, once they enter the playoffs, that % has nowhere to go but DOWN since they'll be facing better teams. If you say it only goes down to 55%, that means the other team has a 45% shot (this is per game remember). The odds of the Yankees winning a 5 game series, as lopsided as that, are about 59%. Now remember there are three round. Lets say for argument's sake taht they Yanks chances will go up to 60% for round 2 since it has more games, and 60% for round 3. More games benefits better teams, but also, they'll be facing better teams as well. The odds of winning it all in that case? About 1 in 5. This is for the best team in the AL, who has a huge advantage in all three of their playoff series. They have a 1 in 5 shot at winning the WS. Playoffs are a LOT more of a crap's shoot than people think. Which would show that the best team wins at most 25% of the time, and most likely less than that.
Last edited by LBJackal on Wed Apr 20, 2005 6:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby CubsFan7724 » Wed Apr 20, 2005 6:51 pm

fantasyfiend wrote:Buy a clue

What in the world does this mean? Do you feel the need to belittle the success of other small market teams, because you think it somehow diminshes what the As have done? The AL West has been better than the Central, but its not by some huge margin. You are acting like the AL Central is some Bush league, and the AL West is the AL East :-b . Its not like Seattle and Texas, or even Anaheim has been great competition. Just wondering why you belitte the Twins, and also me because I think what they've done is nearly on the level of the As.
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Postby fantasyfiend » Wed Apr 20, 2005 7:05 pm

The ignorance and blatant disregard for #'s or any research on the matter that both Cubsfan, and Phatferd discuss is quite baffling.

Again, buy a clue.
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Postby CubsFan7724 » Wed Apr 20, 2005 7:11 pm

fantasyfiend wrote:The ignorance and blatant disregard for #'s or any research on the matter that both Cubsfan, and Phatferd discuss is quite baffling.

Again, buy a clue.

What do you mean? What numbers? Explain, instead of making insults at me.
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Postby Phatferd » Wed Apr 20, 2005 8:22 pm

LBJackal wrote:Phatferd... look at last year's regular seasons standings, like GTWMA already pointed out. The Yankees won 62% of their games, and this is including tons of games against the Jays and D'Rays. And still - only 62%. Now, once they enter the playoffs, that % has nowhere to go but DOWN since they'll be facing better teams. If you say it only goes down to 55%, that means the other team has a 45% shot (this is per game remember). The odds of the Yankees winning a 5 game series, as lopsided as that, are about 59%. Now remember there are three round. Lets say for argument's sake taht they Yanks chances will go up to 60% for round 2 since it has more games, and 60% for round 3. More games benefits better teams, but also, they'll be facing better teams as well. The odds of winning it all in that case? About 1 in 5. This is for the best team in the AL, who has a huge advantage in all three of their playoff series. They have a 1 in 5 shot at winning the WS. Playoffs are a LOT more of a crap's shoot than people think. Which would show that the best team wins at most 25% of the time, and most likely less than that.


I understand your point LBJ and I accept that there is merit behind it. I am not saying your theory is wrong, I am only defending my stance on the issue, you have different stance, and that is respected.

I feel, that over 162 games there are more "outside factors" at play to change a teams success and or failure. Comparing 162 games to 5 or 7, more can go wrong in 162 games as opposed to 5 to effect a team. If the As or anyone for that matter lost a huge part of their team due to injury during a couple of their series' I would gladly say they got screwed and had no control over it.

Luck implies you have no control over something, and I think that is total crap. When the pitcher takes the rubber for any game (regular or postseason) they control their destiny not some outside force. As with a hitter who steps to the plate.

An entire baseball season is based on dozens of series played throughout the entire year. Oakland has shown a great deal of success winning a majority of these series' throughout the past 5 years. Is this luck? Have they been lucky to win all these sereis throughout the year to get to the playoffs? If so then why does their luck run out at the end of every regular season?

I respectfully believe it isn't luck, they are a good enough team to win a majority of their games during the season, but their team just hasn't been strong enough to beat the cream of the crop when they match up with them.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Apr 20, 2005 9:33 pm

You've got it completely backwards.

Think about it this way. We'll have the Red Sox play the Drays, and you get a million bucks if the Sox win.

You have your choice of having that based on those two teams playing one game or on those two teams playing 50 games against each other.

Now, most fans I know would agree that they'd rather take the 50 game series. In one game, the DRays might catch the breaks and win. But, match those teams up 50 times, and I'm damn sure the Red Sox will win more than half of those games.

The shorter the series, the more luck plays a role. In a longer series, the bloops, dinks, and bad bounces even out, and skill outweighs luck.

Pitchers and hitters only control certain things in a game. Other things are luck. The longer you play, the more luck evens out between two teams.
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Postby Phatferd » Wed Apr 20, 2005 9:38 pm

I love you too Agnes, so don't think I was leaving you out.

I understand your argument and I just don't agree with it, so I have my argument straight not backwards. Backwards to you maybe, but not me.

I understand all of that, but what if according to your theory the Red Sox will win roughly 60% of their games.

Wouldn't they also have a 60% chance of winning 1 game? I know its 50/50, but the better team has a slightly bigger chance, at least according to Vegas and they sure as hell aren't losing money.

I still go back to my theory that an entire season is based on series, so what changes from then to the playoffs? They play better teams.

BTW, bloops, dinks and dunks aren't luck. They are all parts of the game and are hits. The only luck that comes into play is where the defense is aligned and that is ultimately up to the coach.

If this were luck then every hit would be luck, therefore everything in baseball and life essentially is luck.
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Postby fantasyfiend » Wed Apr 20, 2005 10:06 pm

Phatferd, Hits are luck. (Thats the concept of defensive independent metrics)
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Postby Tavish » Wed Apr 20, 2005 10:11 pm

fantasyfiend wrote:Phatferd, Hits are luck. (Thats the concept of defensive independent metrics)


I think you mean some hits are luck. Most hits are not luck, they are something that pitchers have very limited control over.
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