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Oakland A's - Why is everybody so high on them?

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Postby fantasyfiend » Wed Apr 20, 2005 6:59 am

4 reasons:

Indians, White Sox, Tigers, Royals.
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Postby CubsFan7724 » Wed Apr 20, 2005 7:00 am

fantasyfiend wrote:4 reasons:

Indians, White Sox, Tigers, Royals.

And the Mariners, Rangers, and Angels are the epitome of dominance?
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Postby fantasyfiend » Wed Apr 20, 2005 7:04 am

Buy a clue
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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Wed Apr 20, 2005 7:26 am

CubsFan7724 wrote:Why do the Twins never get talked about? They pretty much win their division every year with about the same payroll as the As. Is it because they don't have a book written about them?


While I like the Twins approach and love that they are sticking it to the establisment somewhat like the A's, I don't realistically think you can say that over the past few years the Central has had the caliber of teams that the West has had. Also, the Central is a collection of small market teams mostly while the West has LA, and the relatively large market of DFW. That last part may be a stretch, but hopefully you see where I'm coming from. :-?
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Postby ramble2 » Wed Apr 20, 2005 11:30 am

CubsFan7724 wrote:Why do the Twins never get talked about? They pretty much win their division every year with about the same payroll as the As. Is it because they don't have a book written about them?


I love what the Twins have done. They haven't had the same divisional competition as the A's, but they still deserve a ton of credit.

What's gotten a bit lost here is that there isn't just ONE strategy that can be successful in baseball. Just because the A's have been successful (and, yes, they HAVE been successful) using a 'moneyball' type strategy doesn't mean that no other strategy will work. In fact, that's part of the whole point of 'moneyball' - recognizing successful strategies that are undervalued by the market and pursuing them.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Apr 20, 2005 12:18 pm

Phatferd wrote: I know you say that the best team wins the regular season, but I think even a rational person would believe that the best team wins 75% of the time.


That is the most irrational comment I've seen in a LONG time.

Tell me this...in the regular season, what is the BEST winning percentage a team has ever had?

In the regular season, playing against great teams and crappy teams, a good team might win 60% of the team.

In the playoffs, they are playing only against the best teams in a shorter season with less time for the random bounces of the ball to even out. It's guaranteed that in that environment the best team wins less than 60% of the time.

And once the likely winning percentage gets darn close to 50%, what does that mean? It means that it's only a 50-50 chance that the best team wins the series.

In other words, the playoffs are largely a crapshoot.

That doesn't mean that you can't do things to bump that percentage to 52 or 53 percent, but it does mean that even if you do, there's a lotta luck in determining who wins.
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Postby Phatferd » Wed Apr 20, 2005 2:31 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Phatferd wrote: I know you say that the best team wins the regular season, but I think even a rational person would believe that the best team wins 75% of the time.


That is the most irrational comment I've seen in a LONG time.

Tell me this...in the regular season, what is the BEST winning percentage a team has ever had?

In the regular season, playing against great teams and crappy teams, a good team might win 60% of the team.

In the playoffs, they are playing only against the best teams in a shorter season with less time for the random bounces of the ball to even out. It's guaranteed that in that environment the best team wins less than 60% of the time.

And once the likely winning percentage gets darn close to 50%, what does that mean? It means that it's only a 50-50 chance that the best team wins the series.

In other words, the playoffs are largely a crapshoot.

That doesn't mean that you can't do things to bump that percentage to 52 or 53 percent, but it does mean that even if you do, there's a lotta luck in determining who wins.


I am talking about the playoffs. A better team will win a series 75% of the time.

Where has it been proven that its a 50-50 chance? I bet it hasn't and there is no way to prove that.
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Postby ramble2 » Wed Apr 20, 2005 3:22 pm

Phatferd wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Phatferd wrote: I know you say that the best team wins the regular season, but I think even a rational person would believe that the best team wins 75% of the time.


That is the most irrational comment I've seen in a LONG time.

Tell me this...in the regular season, what is the BEST winning percentage a team has ever had?

In the regular season, playing against great teams and crappy teams, a good team might win 60% of the team.

In the playoffs, they are playing only against the best teams in a shorter season with less time for the random bounces of the ball to even out. It's guaranteed that in that environment the best team wins less than 60% of the time.

And once the likely winning percentage gets darn close to 50%, what does that mean? It means that it's only a 50-50 chance that the best team wins the series.

In other words, the playoffs are largely a crapshoot.

That doesn't mean that you can't do things to bump that percentage to 52 or 53 percent, but it does mean that even if you do, there's a lotta luck in determining who wins.


I am talking about the playoffs. A better team will win a series 75% of the time.

Where has it been proven that its a 50-50 chance? I bet it hasn't and there is no way to prove that.


Where has it been proven that the better team wins the playoff series 75% of the time in baseball?

If you can compute the likely winning percentage of each playoff game, then you can compute the odds that the better team will win the series. It gets pretty messy pretty quickly, though. I haven't done the calculations, but working from GTWMA numbers above the odds of the better team winning the series are going to be much closer to 50% than 75%.

Even if you were right, what would that prove? That the A's were the worst of the playoff teams from 2000-2003? How many other teams WISH they could say that?
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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Wed Apr 20, 2005 3:30 pm

Phatferd wrote:Where has it been proven that its a 50-50 chance? I bet it hasn't and there is no way to prove that.


That is a completely unfounded comment. I think the andecdotal evidence over the past 6-7-8 years disproves that. Are you saying all these wild card teams that have won the WS are the best team? I'm not much of a baseball historian, but I'm sure many of the guys here who are will tell you just what GTWMA has been saying, the best team rarely wins.
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Postby ramble2 » Wed Apr 20, 2005 3:37 pm

SaintsOfTheDiamond wrote:
Phatferd wrote:Where has it been proven that its a 50-50 chance? I bet it hasn't and there is no way to prove that.


That is a completely unfounded comment. I think the andecdotal evidence over the past 6-7-8 years disproves that. Are you saying all these wild card teams that have won the WS are the best team? I'm not much of a baseball historian, but I'm sure many of the guys here who are will tell you just what GTWMA has been saying, the best team rarely wins.


I agree, though I think some of the details are off. It's not that best team rarely wins a playoff series, only that they don't win as often as phatferd would have people believe.

Unless you are talking about winning the world series. In that case, the best team might win more often than every other team in a given playoff (over a long sample size), but still win the world series less than half the time. I haven't done the historical leg work to figure it out.
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