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RE: Jose Mesa - IMPORTANT to me

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Will Jose Mesa notch 30 saves this year?

Yes, he will get at least 30 saves.
44
76%
No, he will record under 30 saves.
14
24%
 
Total votes : 58

Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Fri Apr 15, 2005 11:15 am

davidmarver wrote:
daullaz wrote:
AndyRoddick220 wrote:I owned him in 2003 and havnt touched him since, catch my drift. :-°


You simply cannot base a player's entire value on one bad year. Especially when that player has produced well after that bad year.


92 innings, 62 k, 2.64 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 62/22 K/BB; 33 years old
43 innings, 55 k, 1.25 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 55/6 K/BB; 27 years old
69.33 innings, 37 k, 3.25 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 37/20 K/BB; 38 years old


How many career saves do those guys have?

One of the things that hasent been talked about is the closer mentality. Some people think its a myth - that a good setup pitcher will surely be a good closer. I disagree.
Those other two guys - Torres and Gonzalez - are very good pitchers, but neither of them are closers. Looking at their entire professional careers - both major and minor - Torres has been successful twice in 7 chances for saves, and Mike G once in 4 chances with the Pirates, and 4 times as a minor leaguer in '03. Now which of these guys is going to sit Mesa who has recorded almost 300 career saves?
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Postby KolbSaves » Fri Apr 15, 2005 11:20 am

Wow those are huge sample sizes for Gonzo and Torres, Cornbread ;-) .

There might be such a thing as "closer mentality" but I think more people have it than don't. Hawkins doesn't but Lidge, Dotel, K Rod, and BJ Ryan (all off the top of my head) came into closing situations last year and did well. Also, if you believe in "closer mentality" there is also a difference between being brought in to save on an off day and being the regular closer- which Torres and Gonzo have never been.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Fri Apr 15, 2005 11:53 am

The sample size was for their careers - Torres dating back to early 1990, and Gonzalez both major and minor league numbers. How much of a bigger sample size is there?

Obviously you are going to find many cases of setup men turned closers - closers have to start somewhere - I agree. But - you can also find a number of circumstances where very good setup men simply do not have the mental makeup to close. Also - some people grow into the role - a 25 yo who fails as a closer could turn it around yrs later. It happens.

Im no PIT expert, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night... just messin, but seriously though from reading people more familiar on them than I it appears Torres isnt going anywhere anytime soon because the manager wants him as the guy he can turn to in important nonsave situations. Mike G on the other hand is LH - end of story. LH closers are a rarity and he's fighting the odds.

Mota on the other hand - I think his owners need to be more concerned than Mesa's owners.
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Postby KolbSaves » Fri Apr 15, 2005 12:15 pm

Sample size of closer save opportunities, not career length.
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Fri Apr 15, 2005 2:53 pm

Pittsburg does actually have to WIN at least 30 games for Mesa to get 30 saves...that may be a challenge for them ;)
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Re: RE: Jose Mesa - IMPORTANT to me

Postby daullaz » Fri Apr 15, 2005 5:41 pm

davidmarver wrote:
daullaz wrote:
quietstorm wrote:
daullaz wrote:But, most importantly, he is a closer. He has a closer mentality. He is approaching 300 career saves. THREE HUNDRED! He is unphased by pressure. Pitching in Pittsburgh, it's impossible to feel any pressure. Jose Mesa is Bizarro LaTroy Hawkins. Hawkins cannot pitch in the ninth inning; Mesa NEEDS to pitch in the ninth.

So he's played for teams who play in close-but-not-too-close games, and he's not given up enough runs to lose the game in many of those? Let me make this point: If a pitcher comes in at the beginning of the ninth with a 3-run lead and gives up two runs, he gets the save. That's not a good outing.

According to the "closer mentality" viewpoint, a player could do that forty times in a year and be a good closer.

Saves have almost no meaning. Closer mentality is a sham (after all, Rivera hasn't done so well, lately, has he?). Mesa racks up saves solely on the basis of being put into the "closer" role. He's worthless, in real baseball.

Why not keep him on your fantasy team? He'll kill you in ERA if he pitches enogh innings. He won't kill you in WHIP, but it'll still hurt. His Ks won't be much of a help, and his K/BB rate is atrocious (and will hurt if you use that stat, as I do in one league).

All that for one good category? He's like a guy who gets 30-35 steals but hits .250 without any power.


Rivera has a bad week and all of a sudden he's not a premier closer? Just like Rivera, Mesa had loads of experience in the closer role, which is undervalued in baseball.

Kolb's K/BB is atrocious and he's getting drafted way higher.

Mesa's career numbers aren't any worse than Guardado. They aren't that much worse than Jason Isringhausen. Danny Graves put up 40 saves last year, after people had left him for dead and jumped on the Ryan Wagner bandwagon. Yet now Graves is getting some respect and Mesa is at the bottom of the closer scrap heap?

It is true that Mesa will adversely affect your ERA and WHIP. But while other people are drafting a closer such as Joe Nathan or Fransisco Cordero in the early rounds, I think its smarter to grab solid starting pitchers, guys like Mark Buerhle, Greg Maddux, Odalis Perez. These guys will pitch 2-3 times more innings than the closers will.

I computed some numbers for my case. Here they are....

When calculating, I used Jose Mesa's stats from 2003, not 2004, which was way better. This is the worst-case scenario numbers, when he had a 6.52 ERA and a 1.76 WHIP. Remember that. All other numbers are for last season.

Jose Mesa is being drafted 143 overall by the ESPN Draft Averages, which I used for all these players. C.C. Sabathia, who had a 4.12 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in 2004, is being drafted 145th overall.

Jake Peavy is being drafted 53rd overall. He had an outstanding season, one which he will not duplicate, but he is projected to again be a top SP. Armando Benitez, 51st overall in the average draft, had an amazing 2004, allowing 10 runs all year! If you took Benitez early and Sabathia late, they gave you a 3.35 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP between them. If you took Peavy's great 2004 and paired it with Mesa's horrible 2003, you had a 3.37 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. The same ERA with a higher WHIP.

Next, I compared the results with Ben Sheets (29th overall) and Mariano Rivera (28th overall). Rivera 2004 + Sabathia 2004 = 3.47 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. Sheets 2004 + Mesa 2003 = 3.45 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. A much lower WHIP with essentially the same ERA by taking a guy that had a 1.76 WHIP and pairing him with a stud starting pitcher.

Lastly, I looked at a mid-level starter. Carl Pavano is being drafted 71st overall. Jason Isringhausen is going at spot #68. Sabathia 2004 + Isringhausen 2004 = 3.76 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Pavano 2004 + Mesa 2003 = 3.72 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP.

In each of these scenarios, I am assuming Jose Mesa does completely god-awful and the rest of the pitchers duplicate their last year numbers. Undoubtedly, someone will step up and say "What about Sabathia? He probably pitched badly in 2004, like Mesa did in 2003." In 2004, C.C. had a 4.12 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in 188 innings. His career numbers: 4.12 ERA, 1.33 WHIP in 776 innings.

Are you starting to see that Jose Mesa is being completely undervalued? Or did I do all this work for nothing?


Peavy had his season when he was 22. Not only that, but he only had two starts last year, out of 27, that he gave up more than two runs. That's consistency. Consistency in the majors at such a young age is a nice indication of success. Mesa, on the other hand, is far past his prime, and, regardless of how well he did last season, has little fantasy value because he's only good in one category. Middle relievers and closers are supposed to help out your ERA and WHIP while notching saves; Mesa does not do that. That is why he 'hurts' your team, because in comparison to over half of the MLB closers, he doesn't help the ERA and WHIP.

And for the record, right now Peavy's line is...1-0 (Team 2-0) 13 innings, 16K, 2 er.


I was not comparing Mesa to Peavy. I was illustrating why it is a much better idea to draft Peavy early while someone else drafts Benitez, and then pick up Mesa later while the other guy is drafting Sabathia.
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Postby daullaz » Fri Apr 15, 2005 5:43 pm

quietstorm wrote:

Here's something I think we agree on: Mesa is undervalued compared to the rest of his position. People don't understand that a good year from a reliever is like a good half-year from a starter. They get excited over Kolb's good 2004 (which was really only a good half-year, as the second half was Mesa-esque). They get excited over a new closer with nasty stuff.

Closers, in general, are overvalued, though. Mota is worth more than Mesa, but Mota is picked too far ahead of Mesa.[/quote]

I totally agree with that. That is the whole basis for me starting the thread. It seems almost every other closer is overvalued, while the majority thinks Mesa is one BS away from losing his job.
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Postby daullaz » Fri Apr 15, 2005 5:45 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:The sample size was for their careers - Torres dating back to early 1990, and Gonzalez both major and minor league numbers. How much of a bigger sample size is there?

Obviously you are going to find many cases of setup men turned closers - closers have to start somewhere - I agree. But - you can also find a number of circumstances where very good setup men simply do not have the mental makeup to close. Also - some people grow into the role - a 25 yo who fails as a closer could turn it around yrs later. It happens.

Im no PIT expert, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night... just messin, but seriously though from reading people more familiar on them than I it appears Torres isnt going anywhere anytime soon because the manager wants him as the guy he can turn to in important nonsave situations. Mike G on the other hand is LH - end of story. LH closers are a rarity and he's fighting the odds.

Mota on the other hand - I think his owners need to be more concerned than Mesa's owners.


This man knows what he's talking about. ;-D
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Postby davidmarver » Fri Apr 15, 2005 6:44 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:The sample size was for their careers - Torres dating back to early 1990, and Gonzalez both major and minor league numbers. How much of a bigger sample size is there?

Obviously you are going to find many cases of setup men turned closers - closers have to start somewhere - I agree. But - you can also find a number of circumstances where very good setup men simply do not have the mental makeup to close. Also - some people grow into the role - a 25 yo who fails as a closer could turn it around yrs later. It happens.

Im no PIT expert, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night... just messin, but seriously though from reading people more familiar on them than I it appears Torres isnt going anywhere anytime soon because the manager wants him as the guy he can turn to in important nonsave situations. Mike G on the other hand is LH - end of story. LH closers are a rarity and he's fighting the odds.

Mota on the other hand - I think his owners need to be more concerned than Mesa's owners.


If a reliever comes into the game in the 8th innings with a one run lead and gives up a run, that's a blown save. Torres and Gonzalez probably don't have ANY games where they've come into the game in the 9th inning to close out the ballgame. How can you judge whether or not a reliever has the 'closer mentality' when he's never been given the opportunity. And to battle you on Mike Gonzalez. Apparently, he has that closer mentality, as reported by Pirates blogs like this one...

http://66.102.7.104/search?q=cache:S_vO ... oser&hl=en

Also, Gonzalez was closer in winter ball this offseason, where he supposedly did real well.
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Postby daullaz » Wed May 11, 2005 1:38 am

Okay. So we're about a month into this, let's see where we stand...

Jose Mesa: 11 IP, 11 saves, 11 K, 2.45 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, still the closer.

Yahoo Rankings top 10 relievers to date: Joe Nathan, Frankie Rodriguez, Billy Wagner, Derrick Turnbow, Chad Cordero, B.J. Ryan, Yhency Brazoban, Jose Mesa, Chris Hammond, Brandon Lyon.

We all know those won't be the top-10 at the end of the season, but I think Mesa has a good a chance as any (except Nathan and K-Rod) to remain top-10.
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