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RE: Jose Mesa - IMPORTANT to me

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Will Jose Mesa notch 30 saves this year?

Yes, he will get at least 30 saves.
44
76%
No, he will record under 30 saves.
14
24%
 
Total votes : 58

Postby Iconoclastic » Thu Apr 14, 2005 6:18 pm

My predraft rankings for relievers were as follows: Gagne, Wagner, Lidge, Foulke, Rodriguez, Rivera, Nathan, Hoffman, Isringhausen, Benitez, Guardado, Francisco Cordero, Looper, Percival, Dotel, Borowski/Hawkins, Mota, Baez, Ryan, Takatsu, Kolb, Graves, Affeldt, Mike Adams, Aquino, Miguel Batista, Chad Cordero, Mesa, Juan Rincon, Otsuka, Mike Gonzalez, Wickman, Gordon, Shields, Worrell, Donnelly, Capellan, Calero

That was for a 12 team 5x5 roto, based on my value formulas taking into consideration each player's projected statistics' effect on the 5 pitching categories.

As you can see, Mesa is my 2nd to last closer, ahead of Bob Wickman. I don't under or overvalue Jose relative to other relievers. I think what you're really alluding to is the undervaluing of low-end closers and the overvaluing of high-end closers. I agree with that. I have more guys like Brandon Lyon and Jeremy Affeldt on my team while getting more talent at other positions earlier in the draft rather than spending a early pick on the Gagnes of the world.
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Postby stumpak » Thu Apr 14, 2005 6:39 pm

He will get less than 30 saves because it is his contract year and the Pirates will dump him for whatever they can get at the trade deadline. He is cheap and attractive non-closer bullpen help for a contender and the Pirates will have nothing to lose by auditioning Gonzalez or Torres.
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Postby raiders_umpire » Thu Apr 14, 2005 7:24 pm

ThunderSnarfer wrote:Id be unphased by pressure if I knew that someone somewhere would still want a closer that:
A) blows more opportunities than a closer should be allowed to before losing his job
B) allows far too many baserunners
C) Lets in far too many runs
D) Doenst even have electric stuff anymore

so yeah, unphased by the pressure of needing to perform at ones JOB, makes mesa a steal.

Welcome to ERA and WHIP hell. All aboard the mesa train....




i will give u the whip, but i would love for u to show me the ERA hell that u are talking about??????????????
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Postby AndyRoddick220 » Thu Apr 14, 2005 8:55 pm

I owned him in 2003 and havnt touched him since, catch my drift. :-°
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Postby daullaz » Fri Apr 15, 2005 1:51 am

Iconoclastic wrote:My predraft rankings for relievers were as follows: Gagne, Wagner, Lidge, Foulke, Rodriguez, Rivera, Nathan, Hoffman, Isringhausen, Benitez, Guardado, Francisco Cordero, Looper, Percival, Dotel, Borowski/Hawkins, Mota, Baez, Ryan, Takatsu, Kolb, Graves, Affeldt, Mike Adams, Aquino, Miguel Batista, Chad Cordero, Mesa, Juan Rincon, Otsuka, Mike Gonzalez, Wickman, Gordon, Shields, Worrell, Donnelly, Capellan, Calero

That was for a 12 team 5x5 roto, based on my value formulas taking into consideration each player's projected statistics' effect on the 5 pitching categories.

As you can see, Mesa is my 2nd to last closer, ahead of Bob Wickman. I don't under or overvalue Jose relative to other relievers. I think what you're really alluding to is the undervaluing of low-end closers and the overvaluing of high-end closers. I agree with that. I have more guys like Brandon Lyon and Jeremy Affeldt on my team while getting more talent at other positions earlier in the draft rather than spending a early pick on the Gagnes of the world.


I guess in a way I'm defending all the undervalued low-end closer a bit. But the reason I specifically picked Mesa to defend was that I do not see him in danger of losing his job, like a lot of people do.
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Postby daullaz » Fri Apr 15, 2005 1:53 am

AndyRoddick220 wrote:I owned him in 2003 and havnt touched him since, catch my drift. :-°


You simply cannot base a player's entire value on one bad year. Especially when that player has produced well after that bad year.
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Postby quietstorm » Fri Apr 15, 2005 2:54 am

daullaz wrote:
quietstorm wrote:
daullaz wrote:Which two categories?? I'll give you WHIP, but his other numbers are respectable. They aren't any worse than the numbers of some other closers being drafted 10 rounds earlier.

Projected ERA/WHIP, K/BB for Mesa: 5.07/1.57, 38/26 (1.46:1)
Projected ERA/WHIP, K/BB for Mota: 3.59/1.29, 66/29 (2.28:1)

Here's a pitching staff in one of my leagues, from just after the draft (changes have been made, of course):

SP Martinez_Pedro
SP Hernandez_Livan
SP Davis_Doug
SP Suppan_Jeff
SP Rogers_Kenny
RP Benitez_Armando
RP Percival_Troy
RP Ryan_B.J.
P Aquino_Greg
P Marte_Damaso

We'll replace Ryan with Mesa, and then with Mota.

(Team projections prior to changes:
1265 IP, 3.99 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 136 SV, 2.18 K/BB)

Team projections with Mesa:
1250 IP, 4.09 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 137 SV, 2.11 K/BB

Team projectiosn with Mota:
1270 IP, 4.01 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 144 SV, 2.16 K/BB


Let's try a few other closers along those lines:

Team projections with LaTroy Hawkins:
1255 IP, 4.01 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 131 SV, 2.20 K/BB

Team projections with Chad Cordero:
1265 IP, 4.05 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 136 SV, 2.14 K/BB


Oddly enough, the category you gave me, and the one I expected the biggest effect upon, is the one barely changed, regardless of the pitcher.

Mesa, compared to B.J. Ryan, is projected to be worth a total of five less roto points, in this 12-team league. Just looking at the numbers, I'm thinking Mota is worth 5-6 more. Hawkins is worth the same as Mota (lower WHIP gives one more point, while saves lose a point).

Mesa's value is all tied up in his saves, which I wouldn't rely on, except for the fact that it's the Pirates, and they're unlikely to win by large enough margins to keep him out of games (and they haven't exactly shown any aptitude for playing the game right).


Those projections are very similar all the way around the board. Yet Ryan and Mota go way before Mesa, Cordero goes before Mesa (but not by as much), and Hawkins probably averages about the same draft spot as Mesa. But Hawkins is trying to lose the job with his current pitching, and I can almost guarantee Dusty turns back to JoBo when he comes off the DL. So you can throw his project saves out.

While those closers are being drafted, other starting pitchers are coming off the board that, when paired with Mesa, will give you an overall better team. Your example assumes all the pitchers are getting drafted at the same slot. I'm by no means saying go out and trade Mota for Mesa straight up. But I can get Mesa and a pretty good starter for Mota and a WW starter, and I bet you could too.

Here's something I think we agree on: Mesa is undervalued compared to the rest of his position. People don't understand that a good year from a reliever is like a good half-year from a starter. They get excited over Kolb's good 2004 (which was really only a good half-year, as the second half was Mesa-esque). They get excited over a new closer with nasty stuff.

Closers, in general, are overvalued, though. Mota is worth more than Mesa, but Mota is picked too far ahead of Mesa.
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Postby davidmarver » Fri Apr 15, 2005 2:56 am

asumikey222 wrote:Mrs. Mesa, I didn't know you posted on this forum! Yes, your husband is a fine, fine closer. He is Gagne East!

:-b



Hahahaha, roflmao.
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Re: RE: Jose Mesa - IMPORTANT to me

Postby davidmarver » Fri Apr 15, 2005 3:06 am

daullaz wrote:
quietstorm wrote:
daullaz wrote:But, most importantly, he is a closer. He has a closer mentality. He is approaching 300 career saves. THREE HUNDRED! He is unphased by pressure. Pitching in Pittsburgh, it's impossible to feel any pressure. Jose Mesa is Bizarro LaTroy Hawkins. Hawkins cannot pitch in the ninth inning; Mesa NEEDS to pitch in the ninth.

So he's played for teams who play in close-but-not-too-close games, and he's not given up enough runs to lose the game in many of those? Let me make this point: If a pitcher comes in at the beginning of the ninth with a 3-run lead and gives up two runs, he gets the save. That's not a good outing.

According to the "closer mentality" viewpoint, a player could do that forty times in a year and be a good closer.

Saves have almost no meaning. Closer mentality is a sham (after all, Rivera hasn't done so well, lately, has he?). Mesa racks up saves solely on the basis of being put into the "closer" role. He's worthless, in real baseball.

Why not keep him on your fantasy team? He'll kill you in ERA if he pitches enogh innings. He won't kill you in WHIP, but it'll still hurt. His Ks won't be much of a help, and his K/BB rate is atrocious (and will hurt if you use that stat, as I do in one league).

All that for one good category? He's like a guy who gets 30-35 steals but hits .250 without any power.


Rivera has a bad week and all of a sudden he's not a premier closer? Just like Rivera, Mesa had loads of experience in the closer role, which is undervalued in baseball.

Kolb's K/BB is atrocious and he's getting drafted way higher.

Mesa's career numbers aren't any worse than Guardado. They aren't that much worse than Jason Isringhausen. Danny Graves put up 40 saves last year, after people had left him for dead and jumped on the Ryan Wagner bandwagon. Yet now Graves is getting some respect and Mesa is at the bottom of the closer scrap heap?

It is true that Mesa will adversely affect your ERA and WHIP. But while other people are drafting a closer such as Joe Nathan or Fransisco Cordero in the early rounds, I think its smarter to grab solid starting pitchers, guys like Mark Buerhle, Greg Maddux, Odalis Perez. These guys will pitch 2-3 times more innings than the closers will.

I computed some numbers for my case. Here they are....

When calculating, I used Jose Mesa's stats from 2003, not 2004, which was way better. This is the worst-case scenario numbers, when he had a 6.52 ERA and a 1.76 WHIP. Remember that. All other numbers are for last season.

Jose Mesa is being drafted 143 overall by the ESPN Draft Averages, which I used for all these players. C.C. Sabathia, who had a 4.12 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in 2004, is being drafted 145th overall.

Jake Peavy is being drafted 53rd overall. He had an outstanding season, one which he will not duplicate, but he is projected to again be a top SP. Armando Benitez, 51st overall in the average draft, had an amazing 2004, allowing 10 runs all year! If you took Benitez early and Sabathia late, they gave you a 3.35 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP between them. If you took Peavy's great 2004 and paired it with Mesa's horrible 2003, you had a 3.37 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. The same ERA with a higher WHIP.

Next, I compared the results with Ben Sheets (29th overall) and Mariano Rivera (28th overall). Rivera 2004 + Sabathia 2004 = 3.47 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. Sheets 2004 + Mesa 2003 = 3.45 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. A much lower WHIP with essentially the same ERA by taking a guy that had a 1.76 WHIP and pairing him with a stud starting pitcher.

Lastly, I looked at a mid-level starter. Carl Pavano is being drafted 71st overall. Jason Isringhausen is going at spot #68. Sabathia 2004 + Isringhausen 2004 = 3.76 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Pavano 2004 + Mesa 2003 = 3.72 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP.

In each of these scenarios, I am assuming Jose Mesa does completely god-awful and the rest of the pitchers duplicate their last year numbers. Undoubtedly, someone will step up and say "What about Sabathia? He probably pitched badly in 2004, like Mesa did in 2003." In 2004, C.C. had a 4.12 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in 188 innings. His career numbers: 4.12 ERA, 1.33 WHIP in 776 innings.

Are you starting to see that Jose Mesa is being completely undervalued? Or did I do all this work for nothing?


Peavy had his season when he was 22. Not only that, but he only had two starts last year, out of 27, that he gave up more than two runs. That's consistency. Consistency in the majors at such a young age is a nice indication of success. Mesa, on the other hand, is far past his prime, and, regardless of how well he did last season, has little fantasy value because he's only good in one category. Middle relievers and closers are supposed to help out your ERA and WHIP while notching saves; Mesa does not do that. That is why he 'hurts' your team, because in comparison to over half of the MLB closers, he doesn't help the ERA and WHIP.

And for the record, right now Peavy's line is...1-0 (Team 2-0) 13 innings, 16K, 2 er.
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Postby davidmarver » Fri Apr 15, 2005 3:24 am

daullaz wrote:
AndyRoddick220 wrote:I owned him in 2003 and havnt touched him since, catch my drift. :-°


You simply cannot base a player's entire value on one bad year. Especially when that player has produced well after that bad year.


92 innings, 62 k, 2.64 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 62/22 K/BB; 33 years old
43 innings, 55 k, 1.25 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 55/6 K/BB; 27 years old
69.33 innings, 37 k, 3.25 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 37/20 K/BB; 38 years old

Those are last years numbers posted alongside the current age of each respective pitchers' statistics. When you're the third best reliever on your team and the two in front of you are, at the very least, 5 years younger, than your job as closer HAS to be in question.

The greatest notification that Mesa is in decline is the drop in strikeouts and the increase in opponents batting average. More hitters on base along with a lower strikeout ratio means more runners are getting into scoring position. Not good.
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