Eating D-Train Crow

[coachdino]

Reggie Jackson was Mr. October....and Willis is Mr. April! Wasn't he 2-0 last year and 7 for 8 at the plate? I can't remeber but it was something crazy like that.

[ravenmad22]

Count me with the willis haters. Batters seem to figure him out by june then proceed to tear him a new one. I think he's a decent pitcher who might round out your staff in a mixed 12 teamer, but certianly not a #2 or #3 starter like some project here.

[TB13]

Before people go overboard for Willis, let's recall that he started off last year in a similar fashion. I think that he gets a big advantage at the beginning of the year becuase of his delivery. Then once the hitters re-adjust to him, he becomes very mediocre. Just look at his #'s from the 2nd half for the past 2 years.
He definetly falls within the "Sell High" category. Get rid of him by June, and you are bound to get very good value back. Otherwise, you'll be stuck with him on your bench for the last two months.

[mrfantasybaseball]

I'm a big fan of the D-train this year. Nobody is talking about his re-tooled delivery and the addition of Mark Wiley as the new pitching coach in Florida. He's aparently doing a pretty good job with everyone on that staff. This will be the year that Dontrell finally puts together a solid season from start to finish. I'm projecting 18-7, 3.25 ERA, 170 Ks.

[logan]

Reggie Jackson was Mr. October....and Willis is Mr. April! Wasn't he 2-0 last year and 7 for 8 at the plate? I can't remeber but it was something crazy like that.

actually he has never lost a game in april. its his best month by far carrer wise

april

7 gs 5 w's 0 l's 2 cgso 1.62 era 1.04 whip
wanna know his may carrer era 4.42 with a 1.58 whip in 3 more starts (10)

thats a night and day difference. now he has gotten better in june and july and goes back up over a 5 era in august and september. hey if he breaks out this year great. i took him last year thinking it was going to happen. his splits just dont point to it.

[Cornbread Maxwell]

I'm a big fan of the D-train this year. Nobody is talking about his re-tooled delivery and the addition of Mark Wiley as the new pitching coach in Florida. He's aparently doing a pretty good job with everyone on that staff. This will be the year that Dontrell finally puts together a solid season from start to finish. I'm projecting 18-7, 3.25 ERA, 170 Ks.

Thanks for the insite on that - good stuff.

If he has a new delivery along with a new pitching coach, he could maintain longer than he did in yrs past. I know I was one who thought he got by on a trick delivery and once teams saw him a few times he would get lit up pretty regularly. However - if there is a fundamental change, like it sounds, those theories are basically voided.

Obviously he is going to come back to earth, but fundamental changes often take precedence over statistical trends, so this is something to keep an eye on. I wish I had known that prior to my drafts - I know Dtrain was going very very late in my drafts, and it wouldnt have cost me much to drop a late rd flyer on him. Now there's no chance to get him for cheap. Oh well.

[freeball]

from ESPN Insider :

"Are we seeing the beginning of a D-Train run like the one he registered as a rookie in 2003, when he went 9-1 with a 2.08 ERA in the season's first half, en route to an All-Star berth? It's possible. It's also possible, however, that he's merely a hot starter. Take a look at Willis' performance to open the 2004 season: He went 2-0 and threw 12.2 shutout innings in his first two starts then, too, and would go 3-0 with an 0.71 ERA in his first four turns, before a 7-11, 4.51-ERA performance in his final 28 starts. By the way, Willis' 2004 meltdown wasn't much different from his 2003 second half, when he was 5-5 with a 4.60 ERA. "

sell high, he'll fade at some point to his normal self. still a good guy to round out yr staff with, but no way does he keep this up.

[agchris02]

Wow espn looks like they finally got something right

Lets revive this thread in a month or so and see who gets to gloat then

(By the way -- Beurhle is great and will have a good yr, please dont put hampton on any team that has less than 14 teams)

[slomo007]

(By the way -- Beurhle is great and will have a good yr, please dont put hampton on any team that has less than 14 teams)

You and LBJ would get along very well.

[kcs261]

Count me with the willis haters. Batters seem to figure him out by june then proceed to tear him a new one. I think he's a decent pitcher who might round out your staff in a mixed 12 teamer, but certianly not a #2 or #3 starter like some project here.

If D-Train had been in the bigs a bunch of years and the same thing happened every year, I'd tend to agree.

But after 1 year and 1/2 years in the bigs, and at age 23, we are going to draw conclusions that he will be a fader throughout his career?

I think the sample is too small to jump to that conclusion after this little time. Obviously, he isn't going keep throwing CGSOs every time out.

But he could be a top 25 pitcher, and is at least a top 40 one.