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Explain this to me old heads...

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Explain this to me old heads...

Postby nettles3Ball-star » Tue Apr 12, 2005 9:24 pm

I am fairly recent to the Cafe and still not versed in most of the statistical analysis that the more astute users employ. So, I would like to know -

Why is Scott Kazmir such a better prospect than D. Cabrera?

Last year's stats:

Kazmir
33IP 33H 21BB 41K 5.67ERA 1.62WHIP .256BAA

Cabrera
147IP 145H 89BB 76K 5.00ERA 1.58WHIP
.259BAA

And so far this year Cabrera has a greater K/9. He is also newer to the game and basically receiving an intensive in pitching.

So, with such similar numbers outside of K/9 last year why do people here laud Kazmir and bemoan Cabrera? Could it be hype? Honestly, watching tonight's game they both look equally as capable/incapable.
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Postby AcidRock23 » Tue Apr 12, 2005 9:32 pm

The strikeout to walk ratio is the big draw there, as that is reputedly (and other #s tend to back this up...) a very good measure of a pitcher's control and ability to work counts and that sort of thing.

That being said, the fact that Kaz is on the Rays was enough to scare me off of him. He's supposed to have amazing stuff but I've never seen him pitch on TV. I did go nutso w/ young SP this year (Harden, Bonderman, OPerez :~( ) but he's a wee bit too young for my tastes.
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Postby TheYanks04 » Tue Apr 12, 2005 9:35 pm

Ehh. Hype is a big part of any team's minor league effort. It turns medicrity into uber prospects. Not to say Kazmir is not going to be good, but the hype machine has always been in full swing with the Yanks, the Mets, The Red Sox and other top teams. The most noted hype machine is Peter Gammons who regularly shills Boston prospects for their management (see Casey Fossum). The Yanks made Ricky Ledee and Nick Johnson into commodities, etc. Part of the game to get the othe rguy to buy into the belief that your minor leaguers are actually good,
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Postby Q » Tue Apr 12, 2005 10:48 pm

Kazmir has shown an very good ability to strikeout batters all throughout the minors and when he was brought up last year. When looking at young pitchers strikeouts become the most important aspect and Kazmir has always had a great k rate. Cabrera's control hasnt come around and his strikeouts are yet to translate to the major league level.
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Postby Mustangs989 » Tue Apr 12, 2005 10:52 pm

Kazmir is younger, and by all accounts is said to have better stuff. Also you might want to take a look at their minor league numbers, that will give you a much better idea of what each can do, especially Kazmir who has only pitched 40 or so Major League innings.
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Postby nettles3Ball-star » Tue Apr 12, 2005 11:25 pm

OK, Kazmir had a great minor league track record, but how do you fairly compare that to Cabrera who I heard has been rushed up? If Cabrera wasn't given all the extra seasoning Kazmir had and is performing equally as well at the moment doesn't he have as much potential? And if Cabrera's K/BB rate is better than Kazmir's after a couple months, but their ERA's and WHIP's remain relatively equal, will Kazmir's boosters start touting Cabrera?
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Postby Pedantic » Wed Apr 13, 2005 12:27 am

Cabrera rushed up? I don't think so. He pitched a total of 294.2 innings in the minors, with an aggregate 4.25 ERA and a 296/193 K/BB ratio. Kazmir has pitched 228.1 innings with a 2.40 ERA and a 283/93 K/BB ratio in the minors. The numbers speak for themselves, though with prospects, numbers aren't always everything. In this case, though, the numbers say it all.
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