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Hoffman

Postby ScurvyDog » Fri Jan 03, 2003 9:21 am

So what is the word on Trevor Hoffman? I am in a 5x5 - 8 team league. Keeping 15 players - Hoffman is $25. Do I keep him? Problem is he is my only option to keep saves and there may not be much out their in our auction. I should own Offense this year (keeping Thome, Dunn, Bonds, Berkman, Burrell, Helton), so I could trade for them later or punt them? Thoughts?
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Postby mkoss » Fri Jan 03, 2003 11:00 am

Hoffman for $25 seems like a steal to me if he's healthy. In my 14 team league he went for $42 last year. Granted, there is a big difference in 8 teams and 14 teams. When do you have to submit your freeze list? If it's soon, I would cut him because of the injury. If you have until mid-March, just wait and see if he is pitching and how he is doing. Is he being used gently for 1 or 2 batters or is he coming in to the 9th inning and finishing the game? If you dump him now and the injury is still questionable around draft day, you could easily pick him up for $20-25 again. If you don't get him, trading some of your power for a saves guy would be wise.

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Postby Grenade Teeth » Fri Jan 03, 2003 11:15 am

What are the other owners doing with their closers? I would think there would be plenty of closers to go around in an 8 team league.
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Postby ScurvyDog » Fri Jan 03, 2003 12:28 pm

Freeze lists are due on March 1st. Won't see any spring training outings.

FYI - This is an NL only league, so if each team (typically) protects 1-2 closers, the leftovers are thin. We allow contracts to be signed as well, and this year there are not many closers coming off an option or contract ending status.

The real issue is this - I either have $8 per player in the auction or $10 per player. ($10 w/o freezing Hoffman). So I don't gain much toward buying power.

One thing is SD really doesn't have another option - the other thing is they won't win many games either.

I'm leaning towards keeping him and trading for another immediately after the auction. Last two years, 90+ saves were needed to finish in 1st or 2nd - so I need two or three save men anyway.

Thanks for the thoughts? Any others?

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

On another note - in my AL only league I have Blalock for $10 and Carlos Pena for $10 - should I keep them both or freeze MAtt Andertson $10 and Cruz Jr, $9.50 instead?

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Postby Grenade Teeth » Fri Jan 03, 2003 4:01 pm

90 saves seems a little steep for 1st or 2nd, but I'm guessing the 1 and 2 save teams had Gagne and Smoltz? Saves are a funny category, I try not to get to wrapped up in it. When drafting/keeping I focus on other categories and try to get enough saves to finish in the middle of the pack, then I work on saves through the waivers. Closers gain/lose jobs easily and if you stay on the ball or guess right, you get lots of saves cheap. Look at Gagne last year. Conversely, if you pay dearly for a closer that loses his job, you are hung out to dry. Look at Foulke last year, Lowe the year before, someone will be that person this year, it could be anyone.

The real problem with giving you advice here is we don't know your situation. I'm guessing most people haven't played in an 8 team league, NL-only, keeping 15 players, with contracts and salaries and we don't know how much money you have to spend. You will have trouble finding someone who has been in your position and will only be getting opinions. Essentially though, I would probably keep him because he should be one of your top 15 players and he is a bargain considering he are paying 25 dollars for Hoffman when you will be paying your 16th best player through your worst player an average of 8
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Postby HOOTIE » Fri Jan 03, 2003 9:02 pm

I would keep Tevor, hes still top 5. I would never punt a catergory, its not wise.
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Postby ScurvyDog » Fri Jan 03, 2003 11:21 pm

Thanks for the advice (opinions) grenade. You are right - our league is very unique, but we like it - 8 high school friends who remain in close contact 9 months a year through the love of the game ...

I'll keep Hoffman and hope he's healthy.

90 is tough to do - last year someone had BOTH Gange (luck-FA pickup) and Smoltz and I had Kim, Izzy and Mesa.

Thanks again ...
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Postby YankFan51 » Sat Jan 04, 2003 2:48 am

Far be it for me to be in the minority here, but I don't think Hoffman is worth much anymore. He's an aging vet, who tops out at 90 on the gun. I had him last year and he wasn't anything special, especially since he's on a team that doesn't win so consistantly. You get a good closer on a good team, you got yourself a better closer than Hoffman in my opinion.
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Postby HOOTIE » Sat Jan 04, 2003 4:13 am

YANK I got to ask. Are Johnson/Schilling/Bonds aging vets? Conditioning and talent are more relevent then age. You say Hoffman wasnt too special last year? 38 saves and a 2.75 era pretty special to me. His era was better then 00 and 01. His avg against was 238, certaintly nothing alarming. I dont buy the argument good teams closers get more saves. Sometimes yes, sometimes no. Harvey had 46 saves for expansion Marlins. Hoffman had 38 saves with only 66 wins, yet Percival only had 2 more saves with 99 wins. In 01, Seattle won 116 games, and Sasaki only had 45 saves. Mike Williams had 46 saves with his team winning only 72 last year.
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Postby YankFan51 » Sat Jan 04, 2003 12:12 pm

Well, I can tell you, for a H2H league, Hoffman didn't do crap for me. Percival picked up a lot of saves, when he was healthy. I think he was on the DL twice last year, so his save number is lower than it should have been. He carried me certain weeks when the Angels were winning 5 or 6 games in a row. With Hoffman, he really spaced out his saves for me. He never really helped me as much as I thought he would. If you're doing that format where the players numbers for the year count, I would say Hoffman is much more valuable for that format.
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