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Burrell just jacked another one.....is anyone else....

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Postby CubsFan7724 » Mon Apr 11, 2005 10:49 pm

TheYanks04 wrote:I wish I could say I saw it coming but I can't. I have him in one league as a $1 flier and am quite happy about it. As I noted, I do not know what he is going to do (no one does), but my gut is telling me this guy is going to put up pretty respectable numebrs this year. Just a feeling. The Phillies look like a new team with Bowa gone. Even Abreau has started to hit well and it is week2 not week 8. Hitting between Abreau and Thome in that park has got to be a plus.

As to a deal, since I tend to think he will continue to put up decent numbers, it would take quite a bit to pry him from me. A round 4-5 or better caliber SP or hitter with a solid track record. I can't see anyone doing that in their right mind.

In the auction league, is it a hard cap, or did the cap only apply at the draft? It matters because a hard cap retards trading of those cheap guys.
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Postby TheYanks04 » Mon Apr 11, 2005 10:52 pm

Who said that.

Oswalt is round 2-3 material...sure I would...in a NY minute.

Harden...ehhh. I am not sold on him. Have to think about it.
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Postby slomo007 » Mon Apr 11, 2005 10:54 pm

FYI, he's still got 7 Ks in 7 games. I looked at his past stats, this is a trend he has had no matter if he's hot or cold, although when he's cold, he usually Ks more than once per game. What this means: if he changed his stance, he didn't change it to make better contact. There is absolutely nothing that says he is going to keep this up, he is simply repeating what he's done for the past few years and you guys are taking the bait. I really thought that some of you fantasy veterans would know better, but apparently not.

And here I said about 2 pages ago that I was done talking about it. :-b
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Postby TheYanks04 » Mon Apr 11, 2005 10:57 pm

CubsFan7724 wrote:
TheYanks04 wrote:I wish I could say I saw it coming but I can't. I have him in one league as a $1 flier and am quite happy about it. As I noted, I do not know what he is going to do (no one does), but my gut is telling me this guy is going to put up pretty respectable numebrs this year. Just a feeling. The Phillies look like a new team with Bowa gone. Even Abreau has started to hit well and it is week2 not week 8. Hitting between Abreau and Thome in that park has got to be a plus.

As to a deal, since I tend to think he will continue to put up decent numbers, it would take quite a bit to pry him from me. A round 4-5 or better caliber SP or hitter with a solid track record. I can't see anyone doing that in their right mind.

In the auction league, is it a hard cap, or did the cap only apply at the draft? It matters because a hard cap retards trading of those cheap guys.


Soft cap. $300 auction cap. $350 cap in season, meaning you can pretty much move players all you want but can't go nuts and accept dumps galore to try to win this year (keeper league).
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Postby xeifrank » Mon Apr 11, 2005 10:57 pm

I remember during spring training there was a 'Who will be this year's beltre" thread, or something along those lines. I remember one person swearing up and down that it would be Pat Burrell. It wasn't me, but I did draft him in a couple of leagues with my last pick. Of course, it would've been even nicer if I had had him in my starting lineup the first 4 games of the season!! :)

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Postby TheYanks04 » Mon Apr 11, 2005 11:06 pm

slomo007 wrote:FYI, he's still got 7 Ks in 7 games. I looked at his past stats, this is a trend he has had no matter if he's hot or cold, although when he's cold, he usually Ks more than once per game. What this means: if he changed his stance, he didn't change it to make better contact. There is absolutely nothing that says he is going to keep this up, he is simply repeating what he's done for the past few years and you guys are taking the bait. I really thought that some of you fantasy veterans would know better, but apparently not.

And here I said about 2 pages ago that I was done talking about it. :-b



Not to say you may not be right as I have never been sold on him at all. But his 2003 numbers were so bad I do not think you can really read much into them. There is nothing to take from them beyond the obvious that he was one of the absolute worst players in the Majors in 2003.

His 2002 number vs his 2004 number make for an interesting comparison, but are inconclusive. He had a pretty decent 2nd half in 2002.

As to the K rate, I am with you. I hate K-artists as a general rule. However, look at Adam Dunn last season. 195 Ks and 40+ homers. Drives me mad from a real baseball perspective, but from a fantasy perspective it really does not matter as long as he can get the avg to 260+. Burrell is an interesting case we wil have to see play out. All I really need is for him to him well until Bonds returns. Actually I have Floyd n reserve in that league too, so I really would love for him to keep this up til Bonds returns so I could trade him for a top SP without affecting my reserve.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Tue Apr 12, 2005 12:37 am

slomo007 wrote:FYI, he's still got 7 Ks in 7 games. I looked at his past stats, this is a trend he has had no matter if he's hot or cold, although when he's cold, he usually Ks more than once per game. What this means: if he changed his stance, he didn't change it to make better contact. There is absolutely nothing that says he is going to keep this up, he is simply repeating what he's done for the past few years and you guys are taking the bait. I really thought that some of you fantasy veterans would know better, but apparently not.

And here I said about 2 pages ago that I was done talking about it. :-b


notice here the complete lack of fundamental analysis:

http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... ght=beltre

not a solid argument against Beltre here either, just a bunch of guesses it looks to me:

http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... ght=beltre

this is one of my favorite ones. love all the guys in it but 0-10 was the score:

http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... ght=beltre

But this ones the best. You, wrv, BN, NZF, LBJ, Lo... damn, its a party!!! :-D

http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... ght=beltre

Now dont get me wrong - I didnt draft Beltre in any leagues lsat yr. I was able to grab him off the WW in a couple and traded for in another. Greatest trade ever I might add...
Beltre for Riske :-°

You know when I traded for him? The same week this last thread was put out.

We must learn from our mistakes. Technical analysis is good, but it can be trumped by fundamental changes. It happens every yr without fail. Burrell changed his fundamental approach to the plate. We'll see. :-b

Now I probably just ruined any chance I had to trade for him at a reasonable price in my leagues. :,-(
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Postby slomo007 » Tue Apr 12, 2005 12:45 am

Just to save face, yes, I posted in that Beltre thread you pointed out but I was just posting to correct a poster who said that he had already signed a new contract, which he didn't. I didn't give my advice one way or another on him.

And I know what you mean CBM, but if I had the ambition I'm sure I could pull up about 100 threads from guys who are on hot streaks who collapse. Burrell is the obvious one that comes to mind, Wilkerson already this year (remember him?), Jose Guillen a couple years ago when he was on the Reds, David Newhan last year, the list goes on and on. Yes, there is a chance that Burrell finally breaks out and stays consistent...but ALL of the signs are pointing in the EXACT OPPOSITE direction and are indicating it is just a fluke hot start.

Believe what you will, you might end up being right, and if you are then you'll be in good shape if you trade for him now..and I would imagine I'll never hear the end of it. I am going to go ahead and trust history on this one, until I see at least some reason to think otherwise. If he changed his stance, he is still K prone, and K prone guys are usually very streaky. Not always, but usually.
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Postby intense » Tue Apr 12, 2005 1:03 am

quicksilver8 wrote:Intense...I am trying to deal Burrell for Beckett or Sheets...but the owner of Sheet and Beckett is currently in 1st and "doesn't think his team needs any improvement offensively" (which is a joke...his offense is horrible.)



I guess i'd say just let him have his hitting start to carry him down. you cant win without a balanced team.
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